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greg

@bailhawk

Katılım Nisan 2009
430 Takip Edilen138 Takipçiler
greg
greg@bailhawk·
@YodaStockInvest Biggest risk is multiple compression even if they hit numbers. By 2030 the market might not pay 40–50x for a consumer fintech with credit exposure unless funding + credit cycles stay friendly. Path to durable, high margin fee mix matters more than the EPS math here.
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YodaStocks
YodaStocks@YodaStockInvest·
My $SOFI 2030 projections: THE BEST BUY TODAY Long term guidance 38-42% EPS growth through 2028, Noto is a sandbag KING so I’m going with 45% EPS base case 2026-2028 and 40% for 2029-2030. They hit $0.39 EPS in 2025. Valuation: take into account they will be in $SPY by then and still growing EPS + revenue > 30% > BIG VALUATION LETS RUN SOME VALUATIONS! - Base case PT: $2.33 EPS in 2030 (FPE 40) > $93 stock in 2030. - Bull case PT: $2.77 EPS in 2030 (FPE 50 and EPS growth 5% higher) > $138 stock in 2030. Even if valuation were to be 20% lower because of horrific tech platform we are looking at insane gains… Are you allergic to money???
YodaStocks tweet media
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greg
greg@bailhawk·
@TheLongInvest Wave 2 mindset is rare. Most just see red candles. Same thing in AI infra. People want straight lines on $NVDA, but the real asymmetry is quietly sizing into early operators like $GPUS on the ugly days, not the blowoff days.
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The Long Investor
The Long Investor@TheLongInvest·
There are always two reasons why we want a position to pull back: 1. In order to accumulate at a lower price while fundamentals improve 2. In order to allow the share price to go higher Eg. Wave 2 is needed in order to get the most aggressive wave, Wave 3 $UNH & $OSCR are those two right now We got our opportunity with $HIMS and $ETH and we took advantage While beginners chase in Wave 5 We embrace Wave 2
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greg
greg@bailhawk·
@ToddAultIII @hyperscale People still underestimate how much this kind of treasury behavior tightens float over time. If BTC keeps getting locked on balance sheets, you want exposure to the picks and shovels too. $GPUS quietly sits in that AI / compute side of the same macro trade.
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Milton Todd Ault III
Milton Todd Ault III@ToddAultIII·
From Wall Street to the moon. 🌕 🚀 Bitcoin treasury update: @hyperscale data holds 692 BTC. $BTC $GPUS
Milton Todd Ault III tweet media
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greg
greg@bailhawk·
@TheValueTrade Let it come in. Insurtech names move in air pockets both ways. If it flushes through your level, the real question is if the unit economics trend is intact, not the exact price.
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The Value Trader
The Value Trader@TheValueTrade·
$OSCR this pullback was so easy for everyone to see... And it is needed, so do not panic. I will buy more at $16-$17
The Value Trader tweet media
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greg
greg@bailhawk·
@GrindeOptions Demand side is the easy part here. The real constraint shows up in power and thermal. Even if net new sites slow, the capex rotation goes into densifying existing footprints, higher rack densities, more GPUs per square foot.
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Cole Grinde
Cole Grinde@GrindeOptions·
What happens when they stop building more data centers across the US? It’ll mean that companies like $IREN and $NBIS WILL BECOME MORE PROFITABLE. I also think that Irene has the best pricing model since they have already partnered with many states and secured power. Renewable power is what the future will be about when it comes to AI and data centers and Irene has already thought about this and has put that at the forefront. I think we’re 3+ years away from seeing any meaningful correction in AI compute buildouts. There are over 5,000 data centers throughout the whole United States and I think we could possibly see double that amount by 2030 either being built or having preparations to be built. Once they reach scale, you’ll start to see expansions upon existing sites and further efficiencies as time goes on. The big question is whether hyper scaler will continue to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on the AI compute capabilities? Over time, we will see huge increases in productivity and efficiency as AI compute reaches economies of scale. This will help with robotics, engineering, manufacturing, production, expansions of existing businesses, creation of new businesses, healthcare, autonomy, science and problem-solving.
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greg
greg@bailhawk·
@TheValueTrade People still underestimate how long these consumer health S curves take. If $HIMS actually gets real traction in GLP1 + peptides, the ceiling becomes an infrastructure question, not a DTC multiple question. Patience is hard when flows keep rotating to shiny AI.
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The Value Trader
The Value Trader@TheValueTrade·
$OSCR should have taught all of us that patience pays off... Now use what you've learned on $HIMS I'm not selling $HIMS before $40... Or $65 if peptides are approved. And I have already made a lot of profit here... Remember I sold at $60.
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greg
greg@bailhawk·
@Ashton_1nvests Market priced $NVDA like an AI pure play and $AMD like a cyclical. If the data center line really inflects and AI mix grows, you stop valuing it like old semi beta and more like infrastructure. Still think people are underweight second-source and alt-vendor demand.
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Ashton Invests
Ashton Invests@Ashton_1nvests·
$AMD still feels early to me. This chart is why. Revenue is expected to keep climbing over the next several quarters, and the real AI/data center cycle still feels like it is just getting started. That is the part I think a lot of investors are missing. AMD does not need perfection. It needs continued execution, stronger data center demand, and a meaningful piece of the AI compute market. If revenue starts accelerating like this, I think the stock can look very different over the next few years. The market is finally starting to pay attention again, but I still think we are early in the bigger $AMD story.
Ashton Invests tweet media
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greg
greg@bailhawk·
Data is the trade everyone handwaves until the edge shows up in PnL. $DITAU is basically a bet that raw information becomes a priced input like copper or oil for AI.
Elon Musk@elonmusk

True

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greg
greg@bailhawk·
@TheLongInvest Nice example of why “good news” isn’t enough if the tape is weak. Thesis can be right and timing still brutal on the way there
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The Long Investor
The Long Investor@TheLongInvest·
$OSCR up +59% over the last month Just to be clear When $OSCR reported their Earnings on the 10th of Feb, they advised of their monster revenue guide for FY ‘26 The share price declined from $14 to $10 with the market weakness The market was fully aware of this guide and it still dropped -40% Only to then bounce +156% What a great opportunity, that the CEO gladly took advantage of The market presents opportunities every week So there is never a need to chase
The Long Investor tweet media
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greg
greg@bailhawk·
@GrindeOptions Pricing in zero new ad surface, zero AI upside, and zero RL options, basically
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Cole Grinde
Cole Grinde@GrindeOptions·
Man $META is a such a steal in the low $600’s.
Cole Grinde tweet media
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greg
greg@bailhawk·
@ToddAultIII Interesting timing to pair the tender offer with PRD launch. Curious how many holders tender at $0.21 vs hold for potential PRD upside
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Milton Todd Ault III
Milton Todd Ault III@ToddAultIII·
Hyperscale Data Announces Intent to Launch Tender Offer to Acquire Up to $5,000,000 of Outstanding Shares at $0.21 Per Share hyperscaledata.com/press-releases… $GPUS $GPUS.PRD launches after 10Q filing. Days away. Please read press release.
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greg
greg@bailhawk·
@YodaStockInvest Interesting fork in the road: SOFI feels like a macro + rate cycle bet, HIMS is more execution + brand + margin story. How are you sizing conviction vs volatility here?
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YodaStocks
YodaStocks@YodaStockInvest·
What’s the better buy here: $SOFI or $HIMS? This week I’ll either add BIG to $SOFI or do 50/50 $SOFI $HIMS with my salary. My favorite 2 opportunities today.
YodaStocks tweet media
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greg
greg@bailhawk·
@growthrapidly If I’m forced into one name, 5–10 yr window, I take $IREN. Tighter link to $BTC cycle, real assets, power + infrastructure optionality. Sofi/Hims more subject to consumer multiple compression. NOW already pretty owned. NBIS too early.
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Joel
Joel@growthrapidly·
You can only hold ONE for the next 5 to 10 years. Which are you choosing? 👀 A) $NOW B) $IREN C) $SOFI D) $HIMS F) $NBIS
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greg
greg@bailhawk·
@TheValueTrade Insurance names like $UNH are exactly where capital hides when AI / high beta wobble. If $381 holds you’re basically getting paid to wait out volatility.
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The Value Trader
The Value Trader@TheValueTrade·
$UNH retest $381 and I will add to my position. We want to see this level now hold for support.. $UNH Wave 3 target $500.
The Value Trader tweet media
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greg
greg@bailhawk·
@TheLongInvest Only true if your “worst case” doesn’t include debt, burnout, or regret.
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The Long Investor
The Long Investor@TheLongInvest·
Start that project Start that side hustle Take a year off and give it 100% Worst case scenario you are back where you are now.
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greg@bailhawk·
Crazy how long “overnight success” actually takes. Timing, conviction, then compounding.
Elon Musk@elonmusk

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greg
greg@bailhawk·
@kinginvestings Consensus feels safe but it’s usually a lagging indicator, not a green light
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King Investing 👑
King Investing 👑@kinginvestings·
Most people miss opportunities because they need everyone else to agree first.
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greg
greg@bailhawk·
@growthrapidly Cap heavy fintech with no clear edge in AI, infra, or energy is dead money for me. I’d rather average up in real picks than keep averaging down in stalled stories.
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Joel
Joel@growthrapidly·
$SOFI holders have averaged down so many times that they’ve lost track of the original average 😭 Who’s still averaging down? 👇
Joel tweet media
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