baller

Not tweeting until Podz scores 30

Ts is sad can’t lie

Thursday's BEST BETS 🔥🔥 $50 to a follower who 𝗟𝗜𝗞𝗘𝗦 & Comments on this post if we cash 💰 - RJ Harvey over 2.5 rec targets - Bradley Beal over 9.5 1st half PRA Played these on Prizepicks! ✅ IN-DEPTH analysis attached ⬇️ RJ Harvey and the Broncos face off against the Raiders at home on Thursday Night Football. We've seen the rookie RB be more involved as the season has progressed and I've been particularly encouraged by his receiving role. Sean Payton loves to have weapons out of the backfield like he had in New Orleans over the years with Kamara and Sproles. He loved to scheme up targets to his RB's when he had those great YAC weapons in their prime. I believe RJ Harvey is being molded into a similar role, which gives us a great value here at just 2.5 targets. We've seen Harvey cover this line in 5 of his last 7 games and he's averaged 3.3 targets in this stretch. The two misses being against NYG and DAL, one of which was a massive blowout win. While there is concerns of a blowout here, we've seen DEN still have plenty of pass volume regardless of the score. Bo Nix has avg 35.78 pass attempts per game this season, yet still avg 37 attempts in wins by 8+ pts. Last week RJ's usage was great to see, he ran 17 routes which was easily the highest of the RB's and his most all season. This resulted in tied for a season high 5 targets. Harvey ran a route on 43.6% of DEN pass plays which the highest all year (33.3% previous high). This was in Marvin Mims first game out, he is out again tonight. This comes as no surprise that RJ was his most involved in the pass game with Mims out, as that takes away a guy who received some of those gadget play type targets. That role now shifts even more to RJ who got 2 designed/first read targets last week which is nice to see. I expect a few designed screens/targets, and he is obviously still available as a check down on non-designed plays. Matchup is good vs Raiders who play zone coverage at tied for the highest rate in NFL, favorable for RB targets. LV has 7.0 RB targets per game in the last 3 weeks (3rd highest). Bradley Beal is in a great spot and situation for this specific prop tonight. I don't play these niche type props often, but when the clear value is there I have to attack it. Beal is on a minutes restriction still and has not played more than 21 minutes, (20-21 in all 4 games played). In these games, Beal has not played in the 4th qtr of any. He is being used in a somewhat normal rotations for the first 3 qtrs, then once the minutes limit is reached LAC has sat him. They are doing it this way rather than "saving" his minutes to be available at the end of the game. What this had led to is the large percentage of his playing time coming in the first half. In these 4 games he's averaged 14 1st half minutes, but just about only 6-7 mins in the 2nd half (3rd qtr). So his full game PRA line is now set at 20.5 with both Harden and Kawhi ruled out, but we get Beal's 1st half line at just 9.5 PRA. That's already less than half so we're getting value there, on top of the fact that about 65-70% of his playing time is coming in the 1st half due to the minutes restriction he's on. The Clippers have previously stated they will continue to ease him into things so I don't expect him to get lifted from any limit any time soon, so the clear edge is in this 1st half line. To start the season he is averaging only 10.5 PRA in 20.5 mins, but it's important to understand all of these games were played with both Harden and Kawhi. Obviously those 2 will take a huge chunk of the USG, but with both of them out today we will see Beal more involved. In a similar situation last season when with PHX, Beal was super productive with KD+Booker off the court. In this sample last year Bradley had a 34.1 USG, 29.0 AST% and 5.9 total reb% averaging 15.11 PRA per 14 mins. This is a mis-price, also a great revenge spot for Beal against his former team.