BostonBean

@compound248 What weight do you put on the fact that commons are holding up in light of this ostensibly "bad" news? And the fact that Ackman & other institutional money are standing firm with big positions?

GSE common shareholders, Director Pulte has now provided you multiple warnings in the past week. The Risks section has some worrying statements. Be careful.

@BillAckman penny for your thoughts on $FNMA latest & Pulte 10-k comments.

@compound248 Appreciate your analysis. Curious your thoughts: 1. FNMA hasn’t cratered 2. If focused on IPO, why wipe commons & make new holders think they are subject to same govt meddling all over again (FnF still ‘GSEs’)? 3. What is the flaw in Ackman’s logic? FWIW, he has connections/pull.

…but, please know, I did tell you. x.com/compound248/st…

Please know that I will never do a victory lap obnoxiously reminding you that, “I told you so.” $FNMA $FMCC Probably never. Maybe.

@DoNotLose @DoNotLose who is the author of said article?

Bloomberg expects conversion "Most Logical Path Forward" $FNMA #FANNIEGATE

@GunnerJoe47159 @pulte @CNBC @1789Capital source?

@OliveDrabGreen @WarrenBuffett @pulte source?

Quite possible @WarrenBuffett is or will be negotiating with @pulte on F2 to achieve a big stake (several hundred million available) without having to buy in the market. Such a position would lend credibility and expert attention to the exit from conservatorship $fnma $fmcc

@realDonaldTrump @pulte A big, easy win: Release Fannie/Freedie from the 16+ year(!) conservatorship. $FNMA

@pulte Is there any chance we'll get some rough guidance in the next couple months on when Fannie/Freddie will exit conservatorship?

HOUSING WIRE: “With big changes underway, Freddie Mac’s earnings report shows financial growth. Freddie Mac’s net worth increased to $62.4 billion at the end of the first quarter, representing a 24% year-over-year increase” housingwire.com/articles/fredd…

@BillAckman Do you think we’ll see any rough but credible guidance on the future of F&F in the next 6 months?

A must watch, superb, long-form interview with Secretary Bessent by the All-In crew in which Fannie and Freddie are discussed as potential core assets in a U.S. sovereign wealth fund, which I discuss below: The only credible scenario where Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (“F2”) become core assets of a sovereign wealth fund in the @realDonaldTrump administration is a world in which they emerge from conservatorship respecting the shareholders’ place in the hierarchy of claims. Those that suggest the government will simply convert their already paid off senior preferred stock (“SPS”) into common stock diluting shareholders are missing a few facts: (1) The SPS has already received $301 billion, $25 billion more than it was contractually entitled to receive, and the excess $25 billion was paid to the government more than five years ago. In other words, the SPS has been fully retired with interest plus a $25 billion overpayment, considerably more in today’s dollars. (2) Those who argue that the government won’t forgive an asset that currently sits on its balance sheet (as the government did not credit the cash flow sweep payments against the SPS at the time they were paid) have not considered that the government, as the owner of penny warrants on 79.9% of the common stock of both companies, will recover 79.9 cents of every ‘forgiven’ dollar of senior preferred. When you wipe out a liability of a company in which you own 79.9% of the common stock as the residual claimant, you immediately recover 79.9% of the erased liability, in this case, in the increased value of the government’s warrants. (3) The future value of the $25 billion overpayment to the SPS by the time of F2’s exit from conservatorship is of greater future value than the 21.1% of F2 that will go to public shareholders from the ‘forgiven’ SPS, which fully compensates the government for any ‘leakage’ to shareholders from the public’s 21.1% ownership. (4) If the government massively dilutes shareholders by converting the SPS to common stock and does not credit the $301 billion cash flow sweep payments and $25 billion overpayment, the trading values of F2 will be permanently impaired, making F2 a poor core asset for a sovereign wealth fund. What investor, institutional, retail or otherwise will assign a fair value to a company controlled by the government which wiped out the previous investors in the company? F2 common stock is held by many millions of retail and institutional investors who are @realDonaldTrump supporters. The President has a track record in looking after his constituents and keeping his promises, most notably here in a public letter in 2021 committing to F2’s release from conservatorship. I would not expect him to act differently here. Lastly, Secretary Bessent’s idea of making Fannie and Freddie core assets of a new U.S. sovereign wealth fund is a superb one. Over the very long term, Fannie and Freddie represent a royalty on first mortgages secured by the US housing market, which is a low-risk, high risk-adjusted return investment that will generate large and growing dividends that can be invested in other sovereign fund assets. The long term returns on F2 will significantly exceed the cost of U.S. Treasurys enabling our country to deleverage over time. $36 Trillion of debt and growing is a frightening liability for the future. We can address our country’s solvency problem by reducing spending and government waste, but also by increasing the asset side of our country’s balance sheet. F2 can be an important part of the solution. And the stocks of both companies will trade at a substantially higher price with the US government shares no longer being part of the overhang. Our model assumed the government would be selling its shares ratably over the five years after emergence from conservatorship.

@webflow Why wouldn't you offer a refund to those who previously paid an annual fee for GSAP plugins (ie, the loyal supporters of GSAP)?

💰GSAP is now 100% free, for everyone (even if you’re not a Webflow customer). This includes all previously paid Club plugins. 💪🏽One of GSAP’s most popular plugins, SplitText, is getting a major upgrade, with 14 new features in total (check out our blog post to see all of them). 😍Using Club GSAP plugins in Webflow is now easier than ever because all GSAP plugins are now directly available in, and hosted by, Webflow. ⭐️ Bonus, you can now preview custom code in Webflow before publishing. Read about all of the updates on our blog post: wfl.io/4jBpMY6

🧵 BIG NEWS 🚨GSAP (@greensock) is now free for everyone (and even more updates!) 🎉 Webflow acquired GSAP in the fall of 2024, and today, we’re excited to share some major updates. Check out the thread for more!

@BillAckman Any guess as to when we will hear some sort of guidance on govt plans for Fannie? It seems reasonable to ask for a rough timeline, even if they withhold the full economics.

@ericries any recommendations for literature on marketplace-specific startup advice (preferably non-mainstream) Just finished The Lean Startup and it made a huge impact. Thank you!

@PeterDiamandis As an entrepreneur, securing funding has been the hardest part of all. The predominant VC attitude of wanting a middleman introduction is frustrating, and seems to value relationships over ideas.

How can we incentivize more entrepreneurship?

@CraneLedgeInfo If possible, could this link be added to your website? It might bring a lot more attention to the issue if you made it very easy for folks to put these up around town.

Save Crane Ledge Woods YARD SIGNS are available - get yours now! To help build support for conservation, make a statement in your front yard! For information about ordering one, click: eepurl.com/hNOVgv

Overlooked: Should gov't IPO Fannie common shares, they won't do it on OTC market -> exchange listing would make $FNMA fair game for large asset mgrs.

@IvanTheK Comey's civilian status leaves no ambiguity.

@tdgraff When the facts change, change your mind. Nobody saw Mnuchin coming last year, but that doesn't mean he's irrelevant now

To law gurus: What is the incentive for Sammons to file motion to intervene? Smells fishy, and seems to be a headache for Fairholme. $FNMA

@todd_harrison very true 😤

@todd_harrison '99 predicated on palpable tech euphoria; current backdrop markedly gloomier. Ex-ante, tough to explain +20% move from here