Simon Baptist Econ

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Simon Baptist Econ

Simon Baptist Econ

@baptist_simon

Ex Chief Economist @TheEIU, now working in finance. Passionate about the optimal allocation of scarce resources.

Singapore Katılım Nisan 2010
1.8K Takip Edilen9K Takipçiler
Simon Baptist Econ
Simon Baptist Econ@baptist_simon·
Download our latest free whitepaper on the top 10 risks to watch in 2024, covering the things to prepare for in finance, military conflict, tech, politics and government policy brnw.ch/21wDDb0
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Simon Baptist Econ
Simon Baptist Econ@baptist_simon·
It is easy to say that politics is getting more populist. But moderate, business-friendly parties have just won elections in Ecuador and Poland.
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Simon Baptist Econ
Simon Baptist Econ@baptist_simon·
Supply-chain reliance is almost always a two-way street. Example: Lithium. Yes, China refines ~2/3 of world's Li so others are reliant. Yet China mines very little. Australia mines ~50%. Without AU supplies, CN refiners die. So who relies on who?
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Simon Baptist Econ
Simon Baptist Econ@baptist_simon·
We now think that the free-market radical, Milei, will become Argentina's next president. Expect a maxi-devaluation, budget cuts, quick and deep recession (but no official dollarization) with a good chance of sustainable growth thereafter
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Simon Baptist Econ
Simon Baptist Econ@baptist_simon·
Vietnam's upgrading of ties with US is less a real change than the recognition of one that has already taken place. Potentially a good move to do it early: as US-China tensions deepen, significance of alignment moves will increase all around.
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Simon Baptist Econ
Simon Baptist Econ@baptist_simon·
For an economy growing quite nicely, low unemployment and high inflation, the budget deficit is huge. One reason why rates had to go so high. Those high rates mean that debt service is going to go from ~2% to ~4% of GDP over next couple of years. That will be a political bomb.
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Simon Baptist Econ
Simon Baptist Econ@baptist_simon·
There is something to China's position in keeping the G20 more about economics. If every int'l meeting is held up by the same roadblocks (be that RU/UA, CN/US or whatever) then the world is worse off. Ofc CN has a reason for using this line, but the outcome isn't so bad
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Simon Baptist Econ
Simon Baptist Econ@baptist_simon·
Russia is in the G20! So surprising there is even a vague statement supporting Ukraine. Diplomatic 'outcome' documents are pretty unimportant in their own right anyway. It is more a signal about how the players are positioned than something deterministic in its own right.
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Simon Baptist Econ
Simon Baptist Econ@baptist_simon·
China's weak trade is down to both transient and structural factors. We shouldn't forget the former, as these will fade. Things we all bought during pandemic are big CN exports: furniture, electronics, toys. After stocking up in 2020-21, we don't need more rn.
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Simon Baptist Econ
Simon Baptist Econ@baptist_simon·
Why is the UK economy so much worse than other DMs right now? Two big reasons: high reliance on consumption so especially hit by inflation, and Brexit hurting exports. Trussonomics hangover also means that fiscal policy space is limited, so neither that or mon pol can help
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Simon Baptist Econ
Simon Baptist Econ@baptist_simon·
Incredible that GSK is exiting Nigeria, amid FX shortages and other difficulties. For SS-Africa's biggest economy, not a great example of future potential as seen by global companies
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Derek J. Grossman
Derek J. Grossman@DerekJGrossman·
Fiji invites both US and Chinese militaries to a security conference--and they both attend. Fiji is really trying to demonstrate that Pacific Islands region can be a "zone for peace." reuters.com/business/aeros…
Derek J. Grossman tweet media
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Simon Baptist Econ
Simon Baptist Econ@baptist_simon·
Twitter and Credit Suisse rebrands make you wonder about all those line items called “goodwill” in balance sheets and asset valuations
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Simon Baptist Econ
Simon Baptist Econ@baptist_simon·
China’s economy is absolutely weak. However a -0.3% yoy CPI read is not that dramatic when prior year is as Ukraine-invasion spikes in energy and food prices were very intense. Many places could use a little disinflation right now.
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Simon Baptist Econ
Simon Baptist Econ@baptist_simon·
The return of industrial policy is a huge theme of 2023/24. Few saw what the collision of the US's IRA plus China's approach would lead to. But it is a lot! See how subsidies are re-shaping the green and digital transitions in our latest whitepaper: eiu.com/n/campaigns/gl…
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Simon Baptist Econ
Simon Baptist Econ@baptist_simon·
Australia and Indonesia will ultimately come to Timor-Leste's rescue if it comes to it, but there's a bit of an economic car crash coming on the current trajectory (end)
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Simon Baptist Econ
Simon Baptist Econ@baptist_simon·
Ofc, it is difficult for any population to accept big spending cuts when econ changes mean real living standards need to drop (eg UK/Brexit). Each year, the temptation will be to delay reckoning and draw down the SWF for just one more year...
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Simon Baptist Econ
Simon Baptist Econ@baptist_simon·
Timor-Leste's economy is set to decline by ~13% this year, following a ~17% decline last year. The economy has been dominated by oil and gas, and the country's oil field is being decommissioned. Non-oil economy is very small...
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