As is often the case, when the structural set up is there, a war can be the catalyst.
The Factor Report@PeterLBrandt
Bull market in U.S. grain prices???? This is composite of Beans, Wheat and Corn Massive base has been completed
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David Burrows
4.4K posts
David Burrows
@barometerca
Chairman & Chief Investment Officer at Barometer Capital Management-Barometer Manages Tactical, Multi-Asset portfolios for families, and financial advisors
Toronto Katılım Mayıs 2009
1.3K Takip Edilen8.2K Takipçiler
@YKnot38223527 I think he might be light on that but as long as we trade price, the charts will tell us.
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@barometerca How about cycles of 8 years
This one started during Covid and end around 2028
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While geopolitical and inflation risks are front and centre, liquidity and earnings are supporting selective appetite for equities. This week we weighed both the bull and bear cases and highlighted where we are focusing our portfolio positioning.
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@JamesHodgins20 When rates bottomed, we went from 40 years where the borrower was in control to what likely will be 25 to 30 years where the lender is in control.
The sectors that had a tailwind during falling rates will not be the same sectors that have a tailwind during rising rates
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@barometerca Which also means rushing stock yields and by definition lower pe levels. Double hit to cost of capital and hurdle rates for capex and growth spending.
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Long US Treasury strips (The longest duration of long duration) are breaking down.
Bonds lower / Yields higher
This can impact multiples on growth stocks as we have to use a higher discount rate on future cashfows
$ZROZ $TLT $AGG
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Corrections come as a combination of price and time…needs a bit more time.
Aksel Kibar, CMT@TechCharts
While #GOLD is pulling back once again towards its long-term average, GOLD equities are holding in well-defined ranges. Stock that hold well during volatile times will be the first to breakout. More on single equity setups >> blog.techcharts.net
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@barometerca Tavi pointed out something similar today David ... looking forward to seeing you again on market call soon...
x.com/TaviCosta/stat…
Otavio (Tavi) Costa@TaviCosta
Agricultural commodities are now breaking out decisively from nearly 20-year resistance. Just as expected: When energy moves, food prices tend to follow. This is deeply concerning for society, yet it aligns with the broader macro trend. People will point to isolated narratives like droughts, but that misses the bigger picture. This is a second-order effect of the energy issue. tavicosta.substack.com/p/the-food-inf…
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Charts express the sum total of all the information available.
True market Leader@TmarketL
This passage from Paul Tudor Jones is too good
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Join us today at 4PM for our Barometer Readings Webcast, where we will be sharing a macro market overview and answering viewer questions live.
events.zoom.us/ev/Av-XDWBUqiQ…
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Continuing to watch long bond yields challenge highs as agricultural commodities (wheat and corn) are breaking out to new highs and energy remain sticky.
Inflation remains the equity markets biggest risk and higher yields could be a headwind for high multiple growth stocks in the US.
$TLT $TLH
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$TLT breaking support. Bonds will NOT protect against inflation and are not providing diversification from equities.
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Rails continue higher. The whole group appears to have begun a re-rating.
$CSX
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Transports and specifically rails continue to set-up.
$IYT
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I was sorry to miss this week’s webcast, but Portfolio Manager James Callahan stepped in and did a terrific job covering improving breadth, renewed gold exposure, more cyclical positioning, and the key risks still in focus.
Barometer Capital Management Inc.@barometercptl
Breadth has improved meaningfully, inflation remains in focus. In this week’s webcast, we discuss renewed gold exposure, stronger cyclical signals, and the geopolitical risks we continue to monitor.
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Join James Callahan today at 4 PM for our Barometer Readings Webcast. Where he will share a macro market overview and answer viewer questions live.
events.zoom.us/ev/Av-XDWBUqiQ…
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