Justin Bryant
123.5K posts
Justin Bryant
@bathb0y
Bsc (Hons) Degree in Social Policy and Criminology with the Open University. Loves Horse Racing (proud Old Gold Racing owner), Snooker, & Everton Football Club!
Bath/Chippenham, UK Katılım Mart 2009
2.9K Takip Edilen8.5K Takipçiler
Justin Bryant retweetledi
"We're really looking forward to the classics with him."
Zavateri is set for a big three-year-old campaign 💪
#ITVRacing | @johnsonhoughton | @GBRacing
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Hope everyone’s had a good day xxxxxxxx 💖💖💖💖💖🤗🤗🤗🤗😘😘😘😘😘😘
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Justin Bryant retweetledi
Justin Bryant retweetledi
Some thoughts on LECKY WATSON (50/1) for the Grand National…
Quite a few of you have mentioned Lecky Watson over the past couple of days, so I’ve gone through him properly again to see if there’s actually a case to be made at the current prices.
Short answer:
I can see why people are drawn to him… but the more I’ve looked, the harder I’ve found it to build a solid case.
Let’s walk through it.
1️⃣ The basic profile
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Age: 8yo
Current level: mid-to-high 150s chaser
Key piece of form:
👉 Won the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (G1) at Cheltenham in March 2025 (RPR 160)
On the surface, that immediately puts him in the conversation.
Cheltenham Grade 1 winner
Stays three miles
Top yard
That’s exactly the type of profile people latch onto for a National.
But with him, everything comes back to that one run.
2️⃣ The Cheltenham win — what it actually was
This is the part I think is being misunderstood.
If you just look at the result:
👉 Grade 1 winner over 3 miles at Cheltenham
It looks rock solid.
But when you dig into how that race was run, it tells a very different story.
From the Racing Post analysis:
- The pace was slow early
- The field was still well grouped turning in
- It only really developed from the 6f pole
- The overall time was nearly 20 seconds slow
And crucially:
👉 “It wasn’t a thorough test of stamina”
What that means in plain English
That race didn’t turn into a slog.
It turned into:
👉 a steadily run race that became a sprint from the home turn
And that matters massively.
Worth noting as well — this Brown Advisory was run nearly 20 seconds slower than standard, while most races on the card were only around 6–8 seconds slow.
So it wasn’t just steady… it was a complete outlier in terms of pace.
How Lecky Watson won it
- Raced prominently
- Moved into the lead before 2 out
- Made his move on the home turn
- Stayed on
That’s not a horse grinding rivals into the ground.
👉 That’s a horse well positioned in a steadily run race, quickening when it mattered
The race itself had issues
You also had:
Ballyburn (4/7 favourite) pulling hard, making mistakes and never travelling
Quai De Bourbon unseating when still involved
Other runners not getting the test they needed
Even the Racing Post said:
👉 “The favourite blew out and the two longest-priced runners finished 1st and 2nd, so there have to be doubts over the form's strength.”
And Willie Mullins, sounding surprised after the race, himself said:
👉 “I hadn’t been planning to go the Gold Cup route with this one…”
Which doesn’t exactly scream “top-class staying chaser in waiting.”
The key takeaway
👉 He won a slowly run Grade 1 that turned into a sprint.
That is the complete opposite of what the Grand National will ask of him.
3️⃣ What’s happened since
This is where it gets harder to defend.
Since that win:
- Fell in a Grade 1 at Punchestown
- Beaten 66 lengths again at Punchestown
- Beaten 14 lengths at Leopardstown
- Pulled up in a Grade 1
- Beaten 63 lengths at Fairyhouse
This isn’t one bad run.
👉 This is a clear regression in form
Across different tracks
Different ground
Different race shapes
There isn’t an obvious excuse tying them together.
4️⃣ The stamina question
This is the bit people are skipping over.
Yes — he’s been running over:
- 3m
- 3m1f
- 3m2f
But…
👉 There’s no strong evidence he’s crying out for further
👉 No clear “finisher” profile
👉 No runs where he’s powering through the line late over staying trips
And when he won at Cheltenham:
👉 It wasn’t a stamina test
This is the key line for me
👉 Just because a horse stays three miles, it doesn’t mean he’ll improve for 4m2f.
That’s a completely different test.
5️⃣ The jumping / racecraft side
For a National, this matters as much as anything.
His recent runs include:
- A fall
- A pull-up
- Loss of rhythm in races
That’s not the profile of a horse you can rely on in a 34-runner race over 30 fences.
Especially when:
👉 The pace is relentless
👉 Mistakes are punished
👉 You’re constantly under pressure
6️⃣ The handicap angle
This is another key point.
His official rating is 155, but for the purposes of the National he’s been put in off 158.
So rather than being well treated…
👉 he’s effectively been pushed up 3lb
That’s not what you want to see in a race like this.
What that means in plain English
He’s not “well-in”
He’s not been let in lightly
If anything, he’s been asked to do a bit more than his current level suggests
So you’re not getting:
- a plot horse coming in under the radar
- a hidden improver ahead of his mark
- or a horse the handicapper has underestimated
👉 You’re getting a horse running off a mark that already assumes he’s at or near his best.
The key point
In a race like the National, you’re usually looking for:
👉 something ahead of its mark
👉 or at least fairly treated
With him:
👉 I’d argue you’re getting neither.
7️⃣ The market — what are we actually backing?
He’s around:
👉 50/1 with 5 places in places
👉 ~44 on Betfair
At first glance, that looks tempting.
But here’s the question I always come back to:
👉 What are we actually backing at 50/1?
The answer is:
👉 The Cheltenham win
But if that win:
- wasn’t a stamina test
- came in a slowly run race
- fell apart tactically
- and hasn’t been backed up since
Then you’re not backing a solid profile.
👉 You’re backing a memory.
8️⃣ The big-picture view
When you put it all together:
- His best run came in the wrong type of race
- His form since has fallen away
- He hasn’t shown a strong finishing profile
- His jumping and consistency are questionable
- There’s no clear handicap angle
And yet:
👉 He’s being talked about more than most horses at this price
9️⃣ Where I land on him
I completely understand why people have picked him out.
- Cheltenham winner
- Willie Mullins
-Big price
But once you strip it back and look at the detail:
👉 I just can’t build a strong enough case to make him a bet
For me, he’s:
👉 A horse people want to like more than the evidence supports
Final thought
If he somehow bounced back to that Cheltenham level and everything fell right, could he run well?
Of course.
But betting isn’t about what could happen.
👉 It’s about what the evidence suggests is likely
And right now, for me:
👉 The evidence just doesn’t stack up.
If you want to see where I’ve landed, after going through the whole race in great detail, I’ve put my current Grand National shortlist up here for FREE: patreon.com/posts/grand-na…
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Justin Bryant retweetledi
That’s a shocking decision @WolvesRaces in the 6.30.
Did Hollie Doyle really stop Rosa Ryan from passing. The head on looked pretty inconclusive.
@itvracing
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Justin Bryant retweetledi
A statement from Co-Founder @JamesJohnLovell on the greyhound racing ban in Wales.
18+ GambleAware.Org | GamblingCare.Ie
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We are saddened to hear the news of Nowmelad's passing following today's third race.
Our thoughts and sympathies are with Henry Oliver, his team, and all other connections.
Rest in peace, Nowmelad.
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Former BBC Woman's Hour presenter Dame Jenni Murray dies at 75 bbc.in/3NQNogA
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Justin Bryant retweetledi
"If any horse is crying out for extra distance, it's Jagwar"
Who's backing Jagwar in the Grand National?
#ITVRacing | @acmulrennan
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Justin Bryant retweetledi
Bryan Drew believes his "galloping machine" Panic Attack has excellent credentials for next month's Randox Grand National
Read more with RacingPost+ 👇
racingpost.com/news/britain/g…
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Justin Bryant retweetledi
🟢🟡 Iroko is currently 12/1 for the Grand National! 👀
However, he’s managed just two wins from 12 runs since the Martin Pipe triumph.
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@Beckyckxy Hiya. I love animals. Although there is one cat that sees me with great excitement and nearly bowls me over lol. Justin. X. ❤️.
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@Beckyckxy Hiya. I can't see any of your messages Becky. Can you DM me? Justin. X. ❤️.
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