
老粉🐼
20.7K posts

老粉🐼
@beijingno
Putting stock in learning shouldn’t land you in the soup.




关于伊朗战争,现在不要听谁在说什么,关键看谁在做什么? 美国共4400名海军陆战队,分两批向霍尔木兹进发,这才是继美国完成空袭后,真正能改变战场的决定性力量。第一批2000名海军陆战队,已经跨过马六甲海峡,现在看到的,是第二批正在路上。 人若不到岗,事就是摆不平!




JUST IN: Iran just issued a transit visa for the Strait of Hormuz. Bangladesh’s energy minister met with Iran’s ambassador on 10 March and secured an agreement: Bangladeshi oil and LNG vessels will be granted safe passage through the Strait, provided they notify Iranian authorities before entering. Advance notification. Secure transit. The agreement was reported by Anadolu Agency, The Business Standard, and The Statesman with no denial from either government. On the same day this deal was signed, the IRGC struck the Mayuree Naree, a Thai bulk carrier, in the same waterway. Three sailors are missing. Thailand has no safe passage agreement. Thailand did not notify Iranian authorities. Thailand did not ask permission to use an international waterway that has been open to all nations under maritime law since the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea entered force in 1994. The Strait of Hormuz is no longer an international waterway. It is a checkpoint. Iran is building a permission-based transit system in real time. China’s crude moves through via shadow fleet under IRGC protection, 11.7 million barrels since 28 February, because China buys 80 to 90% of Iran’s exports and funds the 31 autonomous commands that control the corridor. Bangladesh now holds a diplomatic waiver. Thailand does not. The Thai ship burns. The Bangladeshi tanker, if it arrives, will be escorted. The mechanism is not military. It is bureaucratic. “Notify Iranian authorities before entering.” That sentence transforms a 33-kilometre international strait into a sovereign corridor where Iran decides who passes based on diplomatic alignment. The country that grants the permission is the country whose Supreme Leader is a cardboard cutout, whose military operates on sealed orders from a dead man, and whose 31 autonomous provincial commands have announced they will fire continuously at everything that benefits the United States, Israel, or their allies. The question is whether the permission holds. The diplomatic wing of the Iranian state signed the Bangladesh agreement. The military wing struck the Thai ship. Both happened on the same day. The same structural disconnect that burned Oman’s port while the president apologised for it could sink a Bangladeshi tanker while the ambassador guarantees its safety. The waiver is issued by a government. The weapons are controlled by a doctrine. The government and the doctrine do not communicate through a functioning chain of command. Col. Razmjou of Khatam al-Anbiya declared not a single litre of oil benefiting the US, Israel, or allies would pass. Bangladesh is not a US ally. Bangladesh is a non-aligned nation of 170 million people that imports 99% of its LNG from Qatar and the UAE through a strait that is 97% closed. The waiver is not generosity. It is leverage. Iran is demonstrating to every non-aligned nation on Earth that access to the world’s most critical energy chokepoint is now conditional on Tehran’s approval, and that approval can be granted or revoked by a phone call to an ambassador whose military may not answer to his government. The seven P&I clubs closed the Strait through insurance. Iran is reopening it through diplomacy. But only for those who ask. Only for those who notify. Only for those who accept that a 33-kilometre international waterway now requires a permission slip from a government whose own military just burned its mediator’s oil tanks. The Strait is not closed. It is not open. It is licensed. And the licensing authority answers to no one. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…














