Jonh Gatl
81 posts
Took some $MXL short small, stick a fork in it. Their DSP biz will go the way of the dodo w/ CPO, and the little memory thing they have is nice but as you all know, I’m not looking for memory exposure lol.
Nice deal w/ $NVDA for $AMKR to start building that right shoulder!
Congrats to anyone still long.
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Made $125K today, can’t complain. All in a hard day’s work. Not as good as @GavMcCracken day unfortunately, but I move slowly and methodically.
Yours Truly,
—JG
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Ppl just don’t seem to get that memory is fugged and the stocks are expensive bc earnings will never be this good again.
But the tech bros have to rotate somewhere, today it’s memory. Tomorrow maybe software again? It is utter desperation as it all sucks. And while they have to be invested in the sector, diversified managers don’t. Which is why tech as a % of market cap likely peaked and is on the decline after a historic run.
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Ppl are buying memory names today? Like u can’t see that the future is going to the hypers telling the memory guys look, you lower your prices right now and stop gouging us or we promise we will bankrupt you next time the cycle turns. Cause u know those convos are gonna happen.
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Anybody getting tired of paying kids who have no clue wtf they are talking about bc they have no experience or frame of reference substack fees for nothing more than “how to ride beta”? Here’s what u should do. You say you’ll continue to subscribe, but only after they’ve read all of the books on the book list I shared.
Remember what I said 2 months ago: we will come to a point where selling a tech substack on X will be about as tough to selling scalding hot coffee to people living at the equator in 120 degree heat.
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After yet another horrible reaction to EPS with $GEV this morning, while everyone is focused on $GOOG AH I think $TXN also important. Another beat and stock is down $11. If it can’t hold $281 it’s in trouble.
The market is voting, and it keeps saying the same thing.
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$NBIS, hilarious stock is getting a boost from this, that will disappear fast, it’s just the $2B we already knew about…nutty.
Nvidia $NVDA disclosed a 9.3% passive stake in Nebius $NBIS (via Reuters). But this isn't new money — it just formalizes the ~$2B it committed back in March.
The real story is the pattern: Nvidia keeps taking stakes in the same neoclouds that buy its GPUs. Bulls call it a flywheel; skeptics call it circular financing.
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Congrats to $IREN bulls who have been waiting for a green day. But stock remains in a downtrend, which is why we sell the rips. My guess is that $IREN is a religion for most, so there won’t be many who sold the rip, but hey, what can you do when a stock has a cult following like $IREN and $NBIS.
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Booted $NOK puts I had sold and replaced with some $OUST Jan 25s for $6. Read the ERIC earnings transcript over the weekend and am concerned some of what they talked about may carry over to $NOK, though $NOK not as exposed to that segment and has optical.
$NUAI printed today and I took some off the table. No surprise there, we sell the rips in this tape. Had some great intraday trades today, but I did get dinged on my $PENG puts. Need tax losses so closed out the Jan 40 and 45s and moved the 150 contracts into 35s. If i get put those, God help us bc $MU will be at $500 lol.
I also sold half of the $KRKNF I had bought as I didnt like the non-reaction to positive news. No reflexivity whatsoever. Re-allocated those $ into $ALGM which is slightly larger but close to the same size as $ALNT.
Market still acts pretty heavy.
Stay thirsty my friends.
—JG
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Man, I truly feel for the guys that have been bulled up on oil since March. They must be pulling their hair out. Forward curve remains very backwardated. For some reason they continue to not want to pay attention to that. At least the refiners look constructive. @GavMcCracken likely will need to spike his Tim Horton’s this morning.
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Ok, I have am ready to make my rankings for what order the 3 stock stocks $MRVL, $BE and $NBIS will hit $150 in. Much of the work has already been done. The targets are within sight, and we’ll see if they can hold those levels or if they break down further.
This is really a very tough call. I’m going to go with $NBIS first followed by $BE and then $MRVL.
Which of the 3 is most likely to breach the $150 level to the downside first? I’m going to say $BE. That’s going out on a limb, but their model is starting to look a tad shaky, though I can’t say I love the neocloud biz either. $MRVL has the best business of the 3 imo, the question is what do you pay for it. It is the only name out of the 3 that I’d likely buy if it got down to a level that made sense. For me that level is in the $80-110 range.
Any guesses from the peanut gallery in what Korea does tonite? Will I have to find another sidecar GIF or will the $EWY hold that critical $159 level?
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