Ben Ezra

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Ben Ezra

Ben Ezra

@benezrafx

FX Trader & EM Macro Strategist

Global Katılım Ekim 2013
2.1K Takip Edilen948 Takipçiler
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Charlie Robertson
Charlie Robertson@CharlieTTEcon·
Some remittance effect, hopefully short-lived, could hit those in Africa from Egypt to Kenya who have found work in the Gulf. UAE likely to be hit harder than Saudi
Radha Stirling@RadhaStirling

Dubai: Layoffs have commenced in the UAE education sector. Non-essential teaching staff, particularly in sports and extracurricular roles, are having their contracts terminated. For many expats, this risks immediate financial default and long-term travel bans.

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Ben Ezra
Ben Ezra@benezrafx·
bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Bank's Balance sheets may be exposed to huge losses: Lenders will be forced to sell dollars in the onshore market to unwind bets to comply with the rule, potentially sparking sharp gains in the rupee when trading resumes on Monday, the people said. That will in turn hurt the banks that have built short positions.
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Ira Dugal
Ira Dugal@dugalira·
My question is this — if you keep aside for a minute the impact on bank balance sheets , is this cap on open positions a reasonal way to cut speculation in a very difficult geopolitical situation? Also doesn’t this panic from banks prove RBI’s point — that the arbitrage game had gone too far?
Latha Venkatesh@latha_venkatesh

Reactions to the RBI cap on open positions in the onshore forex mkt -Bankers shocked by this sudden cap imposition -Say total positons that need to be wound down could be $40 bn, probabaly more if one counts options -If difference between $-rupee rate in NDF mkt & onshore mkt on Monday rises to say Re 1, mark-to-mkt losses for banks would be $40bnxRe1= Rs4000cr. -This Rs4,000 cr is between foreign, pvt & PSU banks -Being year-end this loss may have to be booked in FY26 P&L -Bankers are hoping RBI will tweak rules a little by tomorrow morning: -Very optimistic ask: RBI grandfathers current open positions, says rule applies to fresh positions only -Moderately optimistic hope: RBI gives 3 months time to bring down open positions to $100mln -Less optimistic hope: RBI extends time to bring down open positions to April 30, i.e. 1 month -Pessimistic position: RBI doesn't budge

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RedboxGlobal India
RedboxGlobal India@REDBOXINDIA·
RBI has told banks to reduce their dollar positions Banks can now hold only up to $100 million in dollar-rupee exposure Right now many banks are holding much larger dollar positions They must cut this down by April 10
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Natalia Gurushina
Natalia Gurushina@NGurushina·
The Iran war, external balances, and differentiation – Brazil’s current account gap (12m running) narrowed to 2.7% GDP in Feb and it was fully covered by FDI. On top of that, Brazil stands to benefit from the oil shock => Brazil has many problems but external is not one of them
Natalia Gurushina tweet media
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Joumanna Nasr Bercetche
Joumanna Nasr Bercetche@JoumannaTV·
Some measures Asian economies have had to take in recent days: - India: levy on diesel and jet fuel exports alongside a cut on transport fuels (petrol / diesel) for local consumption - China: curbing exports of jet fuel, diesel and fertilizers; instructed state backed oil refiners to stop overseas shipments of jet fuel, diesel and kerosene - Japan: firing up coal plants (see chart below) - Philippines: "national energy emergency" - Sri Lanka: introduced QR based ration-system for fuel - Vietnam: national airline to reduce flights on back of rising costs; tax freeze on some fuel taxes to stabilize local market - Malaysia: cut subsidized allocations for their most popular fuel from April (subsidy spending has shot up as oil prices have spiked)
Joumanna Nasr Bercetche tweet media
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Ben Ezra
Ben Ezra@benezrafx·
The important nuance at this stage is ,"it's the global risk off sentiment that pulls capital from South Africa hitting the Rand". The U.S 10 Y treasury yields are trading higher, and so the dollar , because investors shift towards safety and use USD for commercial purposes, hitting the Oil importing country like South Africa.
AngryMetaTraders@AngryMetaTrader

Troubles ahead for the USD/ZAR and other major currencies as behavioral sentiment reckons. Anxiety in global markets. U.S 10-Y Treasuries at highs. #USDZAR #SouthAfrica #G7 #France #gold #palladium #WallStreet #Treasuries #Forex #CFD #AMTinsights angrymetatraders.com/g7-snub-for-so…

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Ben Ezra
Ben Ezra@benezrafx·
@AngryMetaTrader If oil prices remain elevated and global conditions tighten further, the South African Reserve Bank may be forced to halt its rate cutting cycle or even consider hikes to stop the depreciation of the currency.
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Ben Ezra
Ben Ezra@benezrafx·
There is no choice as of now deliberately. India and South Korea have done similar things. Although, countries like the Philippines and Thailand have cut fuel subsidies, and let the market decide outcomes in which case, it's a significant pain on Households and business. Central Banks are caught in these cross fires.
Charlie Robertson@CharlieTTEcon

Now we see the fiscal hit to countries as they attempt to weather the oil shock. Bad news for those (ie me) who thought Vietnam might get a credit rating upgrade in the next 12 months

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Ben Ezra
Ben Ezra@benezrafx·
There is no choice as of now deliberately. India and South Korea have done similar things. Although, countries like the Philippines and Thailand have cut fuel subsidies, and let the market decide outcomes in which case, it's a significant pain on Households and business. Central Banks are caught in these cross fires.
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Ben Ezra
Ben Ezra@benezrafx·
Outstanding writing by Robert Petrucci Sir on South African Rand. AMT caught it right in June 2024, that South Africa would Attract capital inflows because of the coalition between D.A and A.N.C. since then , the Rand has steadily appreciated even though, other EM currencies like the Indian rupee continue to face depreciation. As Robert Sir wrote multiple times, South Africa is an exporter of Gold and other metals, which helped its trade balance in check. But the important nuance at this stage is ,"it's the global risk off sentiment that pulls capital from South Africa hitting the Rand". The U.S 10 Y treasury yields are trading higher, and so the dollar , because investors shift towards safety and use USD for commercial purposes. If oil prices remain elevated and global conditions tighten further, the South African Reserve Bank may be forced to halt its rate cutting cycle or even consider hikes to stop the depreciation of the currency. #forex #Southafrica #AMTInsights #Rand #Trading #IranWar‌
AngryMetaTraders@AngryMetaTrader

Troubles ahead for the USD/ZAR and other major currencies as behavioral sentiment reckons. Anxiety in global markets. U.S 10-Y Treasuries at highs. #USDZAR #SouthAfrica #G7 #France #gold #palladium #WallStreet #Treasuries #Forex #CFD #AMTinsights angrymetatraders.com/g7-snub-for-so…

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