Ben Finnegan

@DimitryNakhla @DvdndDiplomats Okay but it’s all about when they are bought vs their peak earnings power. You wouldn’t have blindly bought them at IPO’s but you may have bought in 09 when they were relatively undervalued vs what they could earn in future years.

Cherry picked the Great Recession? And conveniently ended the analysis in 2019 before the pandemic? … since you’re calling me out for cherry picking the COVID years, why not look at how they’ve done since IPO: 1. $AAL -21% (over 18 years) 2. $DAL +84% (over 16 years) 3. $JBLU -44% (over 21 years) 4. $UAL +45% (over 17 years) My point still stands. Even if you want to take the optimistic view and only discuss $DAL & $UAL being positive … as an investor I certainly would not be happy with an +84% gain over 16 years or a +45% gain over 17 years … Also, this does not change the ECONOMICS OF THE BUSINESS When your cost of funds is roughly double your return on capital, it’s very difficult to create REAL VALUE for shareholders … Lastly, Warren Buffett himself states how horrible the economics of the airline industry is and how investors should avoid … I quoted him in my original tweet discussing why investors should avoid the airline sector ⚠️ 𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐨 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐧 𝐨𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐮𝐲 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐞𝐥𝐥 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬. 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐮𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐲 𝐛𝐚𝐬𝐢𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐝𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬. 𝐈𝐭 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐝𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐥𝐞 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.

What is one sector you avoid all together?

@DimitryNakhla @DvdndDiplomats Cherry picked the COVID years? UAL, DAL & JBLU had CAGRs of 20%+, 16%+ & 12% from 2009 to 2019!

AIRLINES … the economics of the sector are bad: Cost of Funds: ~8% Return on Capital: ~4% A sector that bleeds money DAILY $AAL $UAL $JBLU $DAL 𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: This is NOT Investment Advice. Babylon Capital® and its representatives do not have positions in the securities discussed in this tweet. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐧 𝐨𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐮𝐲 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐞𝐥𝐥 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬. 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐮𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐲 𝐛𝐚𝐬𝐢𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐝𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬. 𝐈𝐭 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐝𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧.

@FirmReturns Good stuff mate! Are they outside of the WBD/FSTA that you have written up already?

@benfinno They came from various sources, but the reading for investing allowed me to gain conviction and take action.

This year I've been doing a lot more reading "for" investing (company filings, call transcripts, etc) rather than reading "about" investing (insert investment book here), and the result has been three new positions added to my portfolio. Get your hands dirty.

@OfficialVizeh Agreed. Brain dead this guy

Yes it's not hard to imagine that Champions-Elect Burnley is a better job than joining Crystal Palace in a relegation battle in March I swear opinions on this app are getting worse each day

@MikeG_1878 Didn’t realise you were an arse gunner

No shocks the bankers fancy another American owner as they will get double commission on the sale and then the purchase 🙃🙃 @SeanDOlfc @SamMcGuire90

@stonkmetal Fair enough, just saw the similarity. The comp structure with Zaslav is strange. Paid $200+ mil in stock options with strike prices at $35 onwards. Goes some way to explaining the massive write offs (e.g. batgirl) they have been doing so far this year.

@benfinno I can't comment on that, I never looked at Warner Bros Discovery before, I'm not interested in video Streaming services.

Pat Gelsinger's compensation plan at $INTC. Not a single operational goal, all based on market cap, very counter-intuitive and a prime example of what not to do.

@ValueSituations Petrofac? $PFC.L

Interesting development - I know of a UK-listed energy services business with a track record in the NS that appears well positioned to benefit from this ... 🤔 reuters.com/business/energ…

@jet2tweets @jet2tweets I have sent you a DM, but you haven’t replied

@benfinno Hi Ben, we apologise for the delayed response! Please could you DM us including your booking reference, email address, postcode, departure date & airport? We can then investigate this further. Thank you :) Josh

@jet2tweets Hi, I have changed flights and need to add the seats to the second booking that were on the first booking - how can I do this? I have DM’d with no reply, thanks!

Fighting for something bigger than himself ❤️ #UFCLondon

How to get wealthy (What I wish I knew at 20) ⬇️ Thread ⬇️

Moments to cherish. Thank you for your incredible support ❤️

Does anyone have any analysis/write ups on #HI (Hillenbrand)?

@SlingshotCap 👋🏼

In short, it's hard to remove foundational infrastructure businesses. The more it's being utilised, the harder it is to be displaced out. After knowing this, you can build a robust portfolio. Want a list of such biz? Reply to this thread with "👋" and I'll DM it to you.

There are more than 6,000 listed companies in the USA. Most of them do not have consistent growth rates and they lose money for their investors. Look at $GOOGL, $V, $ADYEN and $AAPL. Apart from giving >20% annual returns, they have something else in common. Open this:

@antonyandelic @KaranMGurnani Thanks man! Great thread!

Any interesting write ups about $BHC or $BLCO?

Possibly the greatest photograph ever taken 🔴 Nobody does it better 🙌