Aubrey Allegretti@breeallegretti
Exclusive:
Britain could face shortages of chicken, pork and other supermarket goods this summer if the war in Iran continues, a secret government analysis has found.
Officials have drawn up contingency plans for a “reasonable worst case scenario” amid fears that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to shortages of carbon dioxide, which is critical to the food industry.
Senior officials — including from No 10, the Treasury and Ministry of Defence — have secretly rehearsed scenarios looking at the potential impact on British industry in an event codenamed “Exercise Turnstone”.
In the reasonable worst case scenario, the US and Israel ceasefire with Iran has broken down, with supplies of CO2 falling to just 18 per cent of present levels by June 2026.
Farming and hospitality would likely be hit earliest and hardest, given the gas is used to help increase the shelf life of food such as salad, packaged meats and baked goods.
CO2 is used in the process of slaughtering nearly all pigs and more than two thirds of chickens and the sector is not thought to have much by way of surplus supplies. While the government does have stockpiles, this was said to not be a long-term solution.
Breweries would also be hit because the gas is used to make drinks fizzy. Concerns were raised about the shortages coinciding with the Fifa World Cup, which begins on June 11.
While there are not expected to be critical food supply shortages, officials expect there could be a lack of product variety in shops. Officials discussed unease that the impact would be highly visible and risk undermining wider government campaigns stressing security of supplies in other areas.
The government plans to prioritise combatting healthcare and civil nuclear disruption, believing that a collapse in CO2 supplies could cause a risk to life through a lack of dry ice to cool blood supplies, organs and vaccines, as well as to Britain’s national electricity supply.
It is the biggest revelation to date of the behind-the-scenes work to prepare Britain for prolonged hostilities and the impact on supplies and energy costs.
To mitigate against the reasonable worst case scenario, plans have been drawn up to ask factories to increase CO2 production to 100% by ceasing other manufacturing.
Emergency legislation has been discussed to compel the factories to co-operate, which could be passed in only a few days in parliamentary time.
Competition law could also be relaxed to allow prioritisation of more limited CO2 supplies to key areas, including healthcare, as part of the preparations.
The Civil Contingencies Act, which gives ministers temporary but far-reaching powers to respond to national emergencies, could be invoked instead. Government lawyers have been told to prepare advice on activating the legislation.
Plans were also discussed for compensation to be paid to suppliers for ceasing production of their main products to focus on CO2. It is estimated the move would cost tens of millions of pounds.
The exercise was attended by civil servants from the departments for health, defence, business, the environment, energy, housing and communities, as well as the Treasury, No 10 and the Food Standards Agency.
Government insiders stressed that the reasonable worst-case scenario was not a prediction, and part of normal Whitehall planning.
A government spokesperson said: “We took decisive action last month to shore up the UK’s critical supplies of CO2 by temporarily restarting the Ensus bioethanol plant in Teesside and are continuing to work closely with business groups to tackle the impacts of events in the Middle East.
“Reasonable worst case scenarios are a planning tool used by experts and are not a prediction of future events.”
