Ben McTaggart

youtube.com/watch?v=8TOnyA… Does anyone have any verified numbers on the N content of Green Lightning solution? I know it’s not what they claim (claim is 200 L = 100 kg urea)

This seems fine....... Does somewhat fly in the face of the "its a demand driven shortage, supply is fine" argument though. Would really appreciate a clear outlook on this issue before April so we can plan accordingly. x.com/WheatWatcher/s…

@Oscarthefarmer @ktxby @MartinMurray_Ag Not sure what the hierarchy are doing specifically, but it's definitely on the agenda

@bentags @ktxby @MartinMurray_Ag Is WAFF doing what NSWFA have been? Meetings with State Ministers and participation in NFF discussions. (Fuel update webinat for all members today - check emails and register folks. Need your active membership number to join). x.com/NSWFarmers/sta…

@Oscarthefarmer @MartinMurray_Ag Hey, someone sent me a message claiming some are considering not sewing winter crops because of fuel uncertainty. Real or BS?

@99thinkaboutit @Mistadamage I don't think anyone is suggesting it's the retailers that are the problem in this case

@bentags @Mistadamage Go talk to any gas station owner, they will tell you they make almost nothing on fuel. They make all their money on in-store purchases, which is why the prices are higher. thehustle.co/why-most-gas-s….

Otherwise known as "price gouging"

@99thinkaboutit @Mistadamage If fuel is at wholesale depots it has already been priced. Retail distributors are having supply rationed, presumably to delay sales to sell more fuel at increasingly higher margins. "Price gouging"

@Mistadamage Much like the gold market, oil prices are determined by global supply and demand rather than individual producers. These companies are subject to market fluctuations and the prevailing equilibrium price set by international trade.

@Oscarthefarmer @ktxby @MartinMurray_Ag There's definitely growers in WA that have paused paddock operations due to low fuel. I don't think it's pantomime concern. It may all work out, but the supply uncertainty 2 weeks out from the start of seeding is genuine.

@ktxby @MartinMurray_Ag My guess is there are individuals who were very low on farm stocks. Yeah, they will have scambles. Spoken to 5 farmers today and 5 have enough to get through to mid or late season. Some have topped up since US-Israel-Iran war began, paying more but able to get supply.

@hirschirsch @S_M_Bowman I can sell him some, with the appropriate Mingenew tax, but I just though there might be some a bit more locally. "First they came for our water, now they come for our grain"

@bentags @S_M_Bowman I have them yep. Just in satellite block silos so have auger but no forklift for bulk bags.

@hirschirsch @S_M_Bowman do you guys have any maximus, beast or combat, or know anyone locally that would? Alex from Independent Rural in Pj is chasing half a tonne of each for trials and I thought there would be some closer to home than us.

1/2 Some thoughts on the Iran War on CNBC which are not quite as their headline puts it. Our base case remains thst Hormuz is reopened by the end of this month or early April. Yet geopolitically, that’s more likely to be through US force escalation (“The only way out is through”) than an Iran victory (the US goes home… but Israel *is* home) - and a “because markets” view that this isn’t ‘rational’ is irrelevant. The first and second scenarios imply very different geopolitical architecture and related market outcomes for a whole stack of assets well beyond energy. In short, expect more worrying headlines and developments from the Middle East before a combo of political, economic, and military carrots and sticks see this all resolve one way or the other, and most likely within a few weeks. For parts of Asia-Pacific and others, that’s obviously still a very unwelcome prospect.

@WheatWatcher Does this reflect increased margins from the refinery onwards, or is extra shipping/processing costs a significant factor?

The diesel crude spread in Australia is pretty concerning. It's been disconnected for a while, but is running at a much higher spread just now (This is the weekly average)

That wasn't deliberate @pbl1972 . I don't know what the pricing impacts would be. But relying on the good graces of global trade is looking more and more fraught. As a country we dodged a bullet with Covid, and don't appear to have learnt anything

The positive response to come out of this crisis will obviously be a united bipartisan commitment to: ⬆️domestic urea plants, ⬆️ local steel production, 🔒 domestic gas supplies, ⬆️ fuel reserves and ⬆️ local refining Surely the pollyanna view on JIT logistics is irresponsible

This chart looks at our modelled import value for urea, against the actual customs import price. Our modelled price continues to track accurately the actual. (Note that at the moment its more important to look at the weekly price which we put out).

@1116sen @SENBreakfast This has got real Austin Powers vibes

Sam Mitchell has commented on Dylan Moore and Connor Macdonald after fresh details emerged of their US arrest. MORE | bit.ly/417ENZP @SENBreakfast | #AFL

@S_M_Bowman @Voz_Dennis Drought will probably do that before fert gets a chance #deathvalley 🏜

@bentags @Voz_Dennis Mingenew

While agri market focus is on the Middle, another factor to watch is US dryness. According to UNL the proportion of US winter wheat area under drought hit 56% on the 3rd of March and that compares to 24% at the same time last year. The 2 week weather forecast is also a bit bleak.

@GribbleRC @stationmum101 @WheatWatcher Agree 100%. Focusing on the right flank has cost LibNat the centre. The right will preference them already, but the centre wins elections

@stationmum101 @WheatWatcher Why the focus on One Nation? The opposition is Labor! Whether the new leader is female or male - is quite frankly, not important. Political parties, just like every other business or even leader of the local P&C - should elect the best person for the job. Period.

David Littleproud has quit as leader of the nationals. Who will step in to replace him?

@Voz_Dennis Thanks. What's happening in south America?

@bentags Hi Ben, northern hemisphere winter crops are coming out of dormancy end of March/Early April and they'll be nitrogen hungry. They would've bought up fert beforehand, but not likely all their needs.

@freshy1973 @WheatWatcher

@WheatWatcher Might get the horse and cart out just in case! Who was it the other day this would be all over in a few days and nothing to get too worried about? An absolute regional nostradamus to say the least!

What are we betting fuel prices will get to? $10 seems like scare mongering! A few places running out of fuel this morning isnt ideal news.com.au/finance/market…

Diesel price at my local petrol station in Darwin⛽️ March 1: $1.74/L March 4: $1.85/L March 5: $1.99/L March 9: $2.10/L March 10: $2.30/L That's a 32% increase since the start of March🔺⛽️