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Beth Stanton
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Beth Stanton
@beth_stanton
@business editor for US interest rates. Monitoring Treasuries, futures, TIPS since 1997. [email protected]. Opinions mine & @compostmaven’s.
NYC Katılım Haziran 2011
1.7K Takip Edilen10.4K Takipçiler
#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher as much as 3bp (2Y), near high end of Friday's selloff ranges, despite lower oil prices. Auctions ahead this week: $58b 3Y new issue Tues, $39b 10Y & $22b 30Y reopenings (2nd) Weds & Thurs respectively.
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#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher by 1bp-2bp in holiday-shortened US session to accommodate March jobs report (US stocks & other financial markets including oil closed globally). Interest-rate futures price in a single Fed rate cut in 2027 & sub-20% chance of one this year.
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The stupidest take on fintwit!
Black Swan Capitalist@VersanAljarrah
No buyers showed up at the Treasury auction, so the U.S. bought $15B of its own debt. That’s not a functioning market. That’s intervention. Next comes the playbook: inject liquidity, justify it with war, inflate assets, maintain the illusion. This is how the system survives.
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BONUS for perseverance! That year, @MikeStanton2012 and I were working @TheBondBuyer & he was writing the daily muni market column. He got some poor terrified kid on the phone who said he'd been left in charge of a trading desk with the instruction, "not to screw it up."
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So the next time the stars aligned in 1996 (and every time since), PSA recommended a 12pm close for bonds on Good Friday, April 5 for the March jobs report. The 140k increase in payrolls turned out to be nearly three times the 49k forecast, unleashing another big selloff. /END
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Want to know why the bond market is open for an shortened session tomorrow (Friday) while the stock market is closed? It's happening for the first time since 2023 (with previous occurrences in 2021, 2015, 2012, 2010, 2007, 1999). 1/6
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Need a refresher on Good Friday in the bond market? I got you.
Beth Stanton@beth_stanton
Reprising a 🧵 about the celestial alignment of the jobs report (the 3d Fri after the week that includes the 12th of the month, usually but not always the 1st Fri of the month) & Good Friday (the Fri before the 1st Sun after the 1st full moon after the vernal equinox). 1/
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*CME rate futures have 11:15am (NY) close, settlement 11am
*Bloomberg Indices to stop collecting px at noon & mark USD bond indexes at 1pm
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#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher by 4bp-5bp with US benchmark WTI crude up 9% near $109, above closing levels since 2022. Ahead Friday (an NYSE holiday), @SIFMA recommended trading until 12pm to accommodate March jobs report. Additional early-close times ⬇
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#TreasuriesToday: Yields lower by 2bp-4bp near lowest levels in more than a week as oil extends retreat from Monday's multiyear highs. March index return -1.7%, biggest loss in more than a year, wiping out YTD gain. Buyback of up to $15b in 1M-2Y sector closes at 2pm.
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#TreasuriesToday: Yields lower by 2bp-4bp, again despite higher oil prices (WTI crude contract topped $106 after closing above $100 for 1st time since 2022). $215b coupon settlement ($79.6b net). Month-end index rebalance at 4pm to extend duration by estimated 0.06 year.
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#TreasuriesToday: Yields lower by 4bp-6bp despite higher oil prices, extending theme that emerged Friday after benchmark tenors reached highest levels since mid-2025 (for 30Y, 4.997%). Tomorrow's month-end index rebalancing to extend duration by estimated 0.06 year.
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#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher (with oil) by 1bp-5bp, off session peaks including highest 2Y-10Y since mid-2025. 30Y reached 4.98%, near YTD high. April options expire. Auctions resume April 7. Tuesday's month-end index rebalancing to extend duration by estimated 0.06 year.
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I 100% did not understand the idea of an AI boyfriend but am beginning to after hanging out with ASKB (on @TheTerminal) for a few weeks. Sorry @mikestanton2012!
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#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher by 4bp-6bp, new 5Y 4.04% vs Wednesday's 3.980% auction stop (1.4bp tail). $44b 7Y auction at 1pm (last until April 7) has WI yield near 4.22%, higher than results since March 2025. Buyback of up to $2b in 10Y-20Y sector closes at 2pm.
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