big belly snot
1K posts
Unfortunately I do know that. Though those countries tend to be poorer nations and not a reason BTC should go significantly higher due to a massive jump in demand, etc.
I know you have your "Nothing Stops This Train" thesis on being structurally bullish BTC for the long haul, but I don't understand why anyone can be long term bullish on BTC when it has only existed during a Secular Bull Market for stocks in the US?
Price action has negated every major thesis that BTC bulls have had on it (I.e. Inflation Hedge, Institutional Adoption is coming so it will go higher, etc.) because it's simply shown to be nothing more than a highly correlated asset to the $NDX.
At the end of the day it has gone up only during speculative periods where we have seen risk on, and has sold off during risk off periods. To say it is anything more than a pure risk asset would be ignoring price action. I realize you've built a position as a BTC expert so I'm sure that I won't get any love on this post. It is what it is. Appreciate the response.
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I guess I don't understand why @LynAldenContact is making a point that you can self custody your BTC but not your NVDA stock?
The only reason you'd care about self custody of an asset is if you're a criminal and you're afraid your assets will be frozen. Why else would you care?
Swan@Swan
“You can’t self custody your Nvidia stock.” – Lyn Alden That’s the difference. Stocks are claims. Bitcoin is sovereign property. But how big is the market for self-custodial hard money?
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I have BAD NEWS for the perma bulls.
BTC is still strengthening its bear trend.
Volatility is a key metric used by quants to detect trends.
BTC entered its bear market when vol spiked upwards quickly. Vol then continues to climb, meaning the bear trend is strengthening. Then vol finds a peak in the mid to late phase bear market... that's when the bear trend starts to weaken.
We usually see a second or third smaller peak at the macro bottom, these peaks reflect capitulation.
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There’s only ONE correct name for this. If you say anything else, you’re wrong
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@scottmelker McRetard needs a better quality microphone
He is obnoxious as it is but his shitty audio quality makes it 10x harder to listen to
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If the opinion of a single guest you disagree with is so hurtful that you feel compelled to boycott an entire channel, then I highly encourage you to do so.
Sergio Cagasort🚀#Bitcoin@bmw999
@scottmelker Larry was right. I will not watch your shows any longer if you continue to have McGlone on. I urge everyone to boycott Wolf's shows—all of them.
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@DeepValueBagger What are your thoughts on the massive SBC?
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$IREN ER looks great IMHO.
New Oklahoma campus with 1.6GW secured. That's > 4.5GW. Construction is ongoing with enough financing to take on the entire Microsoft deal and bank on $9B. I trimmed 7% @ 42.0. It's just going to take more time for them execute. Again market reaction is ridiculous.
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Yes, gold has thousands of years of being looted, and hundreds of years, including the present, of sitting in vaults, its trust minimization properties relegated to ancient history. Because it's far more expensive than Bitcoin to validate. You are another example of the vast majority who have little clue how this stuff works, or why it's valuable, and that vast majority of ignorance is why the Bitcoin learning curve has plenty of upside left to ride.
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What kinda pfp instantly tells you that this is extremely low IQ ?
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@TwelveLegion @thevivafrei @grok add more bandages to here face to make it look more of a credible grift
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@aleabitoreddit their bid for citgowas ~$7B but they cannot credit bid 8b
they can only credit bid their $1B claim and will finance the $6B+ with cash/debt
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Maduro is now captured in NY, facing charges.
The first thing that came to everyone's mind is:
How do you profit off the US invasion of Venezuela and Regime Change?
Here's how.
This is the "Nation Building" port:
1. $GDRZF @$1.68 - $8B+ claims, $200m MC. (30%)
2. $ASHM @ £175.10 - 3x NAV bonds recovery (20%)
3. $CVX @ $155.90 - Most obvious oil play from locked up assets + $17T in oil (15% allocation / calls)
4. $TRGP @ $186.77 - Diluent exporter to Venezuela (10% allocation / calls)
5. $AVAV @ $256.19 - Maritime operations and post $1T funding for defense. ( 10% allocation)
6. $CF @ $80.13 - Disruption of Trinidad & Tobago ammonia exports. (5% allocation)
7. $HII @ $349.7 - Profiting off the blockade from shipbuilding (5% allocation)
8. $OI @ $15.16 - Claims ~$700M, 35% cash injection relative to market cap (5% allocation)
This setup looks to be the optimal way to capitalize on the US invasion of Venezuela - from profiting off the blockade to the new $17T+ in oil resources now owned by the United States.
"Nation Building" is the most underrated theme going into 2027.
Watch what happens on Monday and the following months.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
US has now invaded Venezuela. Everyone is probably wondering the same thing: How do you profit off the situation? 1. Heavy Sour, Ammonia, and Nitrogen Fertilizers disruption ( $CF , $CVE). These are Venezuela's biggest exports. Most people will buy generic oil ETFs or light sweet crude producers. This is inefficient because light oil is not a perfect substitute for heavy oil in complex refineries. If Caribbean ammonia is stranded, the global price of nitrogen spikes. The biggest beneficiary is a US-domestic producer that uses cheap US natural gas and doesn't rely on Caribbean shipping lanes 2. Dirty Crude Processing ( $VLO ) - If competitors are starved of Venezuelan oil, Valero’s ability to source heavy crude from diverse locations (and its leverage to diesel margins) makes it resilient. 3. Naval Warfare ( $LDOS) - While retail investors buy Lockheed Martin (F-35s), the operations in the Caribbean focuses on maritime surveillance, warfare, and autonomous patrolling to enforce blockades without risking US personnel. Companies like Leidos provide these tpyes of naval tech. 4. Defense and aerospace from $AVAV to $HII and $LHX also benefit. - $AVAV recently unveiled the Red Dragon and updated Switchblade 600 variants specifically for maritime operations - $LHX provides the sensors and communications gear that link the drones ($AVAV) to the ships ($HII) and the jets ($BA). - A blockade requires significant maritime surveillance and naval assets, which benefits shipbuilders ( $HII ) 5. Direct Suppliers of recent military operation: - F/A-18E/F Super Hornet from $BA (Precision strikes on Caracas) - B-1B Lancer from $BA - UAS (Drone), MQ-9 Reaper - $RTX (MTS-B Sensors), $HON Honeywell for the Engine - Tomahawk (TLAM), $RTX So far: $AVAV - 5.91%+ $BA - 4.91% $LHX - 3.72% $CF - 3.61%+ $CVE - 3.61%+ $HII - +2.85% $RTX - 2.1% $VLO - 1.55%+ $LDOS - 1.7%+ $HON - .4%+
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@aleabitoreddit $HAL will be first to eat, even before $CVX, and the revenue bump will be significant relative to their current
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@ganyicz How much $ does a employer have to pay you to code that manually vs. Claude
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@mikealfred Will yen carry trade unwind nuke Bitcoin and tech stocks?
BOJ interest rate decision Dec 19, if they have hawkish surprise how bad do you think that will be?
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If I did a Space after my kids are asleep, would that be something you’d be interested in?
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