BigMurf

Macro framework: The system only works if growth continues — or at least appears to. AI is now the narrative engine for that. We’re deep in a K-shaped economy. Asset owners are being protected while low- to middle-income consumers are finally hitting hard limits. The signal is obvious: rising health insurance premiums, deductibles, and co-pays, plus sticky food costs. These aren’t choices — they’re income drains. Even Trump sees it. Capping credit card rates is an admission that the consumer is stretched. At the same time, every lever is being pulled to pump assets and preserve growth optics. That’s the contradiction. Inflation needs to persist to dilute debt, but the consumer can’t absorb higher prices anymore. Deglobalization keeps pressure on energy and input costs — gas likely rises as countries put their interests first — which collides directly with weakening demand. AI is both cure and poison. It supports margins and asset prices by replacing labor, while further hollowing out consumption. Near-term tail risk isn’t AI failing. It’s a K-shaped system trying to inflate assets and protect consumers at the same time. Something has to give.

@reisnertobias 100% disagree with this. Should only be 2-3 trades out of the year that get you excited and I size accordingly whe those times come

If a trade excites you: Don't put it on. It should create no emotion at all.

Btc weakness is always the slow grind. Got this feeling we could see some negative price action in the next 24hours

looking at 5min timeframe btc prior to breakdown with recent channel support and resistance it took 180btc to get to resistance then 1385 btc to get back to support

1/3 calls closed

$aapl 4/10 calls 260 for 2.25.

Then 4/10 240puts 2.63

Avg cost 2.10

Realized today that my normal trading strategy is just harvesting current volatility what sits in front of me, was going to put on a straddle for $aapl to harvest my expectations of future volatility. May try again later

Closed 13%

Stop loss moved. No calls added.

Seeing something interesting on AAPL Volatility is compressing not just at the macro level, but within supply/demand zones themselves. The channel is tightening, and even internal ranges are shrinking. This is a multi-layer compression, coil within a coil.

Another add put side 2.51

Add put side 2.51

Options premium for 4/10 is priced for a 2-3% move. I see potential for double that

You can go in deeper and look at average volume per bar and you will see supply/demand zones are also tightening. I think you can make a bet here on near term expansion. Will be looking for an opportunity today

Hate to sound anti-American here, but I’m hoping the 10 year gets slapped tomorrow given the loss of faith in America I want to see Donald go full regard

The fact market even responds to this stuff anymore is beyond laughable. He used to do this stuff intraday.

Well that was a shisty close!