Bill Hester, CFA, CMT

New from Bill Hester (and a must read) Going All In - The Bubble in Profit Expectations hussmanfunds.com/research/rs240…

'The reliance of high valuation multiples on expanding profit margins is probably one of the most underappreciated risks in the market right now.' hussmanfunds.com/research/rs240… by @billhester

Seven Reminders While on Recession Watch New article from @billhester👏✅ hussmanfunds.com/research/rs231…

@NorthmanTrader or opening gaps as a cumulative sum...

@alxcrypto Typically just use matplotlib.

@billhester Do you use plotly program? Thanks

Retail sales will not be the data series in charge of ringing the bell at the next market top.

@mjmauboussin quotes about 20 research papers every podcast. But, amazingly, no matter how many shows I listen to with him as a guest, it's almost always a different set of 20 papers. This conversation is a good review of his work...

It's the first time that year-over-year Industrial Production is negative for the U.S., Germany, U.K., and Japan since 2008.

a frugal and effective recession composite...

ICYMI: New white paper, Strategic Allocation. Excited about the new methods presented here. Jointly evaluates stock valuations and bond yields, adds market internals for risk-management (critical in recent years). Just in time, given the bubble in passive. hussmanfunds.com/research/strat…

After the last few weeks it's hard not to think of 2000. Overvalued market, yield curve inverts in Feb, market tops in March, multiple attempts at overhead resistance, two breaks of that resistance, and slow data but not yet 'recessionary'.

in chart title: Indicators.. ugh..

It's a good day to remember that jobs data lags. By how much? By about 10 months.

Marty Zweig had a temporary employment series that reached back to the 1970's. If his series dropped 2% YOY it signaled recession. It worked in 2001 and 2008. It's one of the first numbers I look at on jobs day. For his recession model, see: wsj.com/articles/SB985…

Will be interesting to see if manufacturing jobs come in positive tomorrow as expected. Here are the changes in the August regional Fed surveys on employment. Philly:-26, Dallas:-10, Richmond:-3, KC:-1. Empire up, but it was down 22 over the prior 3 months.

Growth rates in jobs where you make stuff.

None of this data suggests that the economy is in recession, or that we will not be able to avoid one. But it does suggest that if the economy goes into recession, bond traders will have been late in inverting the curve.

The ISM PMI is typically 55.9. It's currently 51.2.

A problem with the advice that there is no need to panic until 18 months after a yield curve inversion is that the US economy has much less momentum this time around.