Hc

$DEVS this is the third of what looks like a fake bond issuance to add legitimacy to a fake investment firm I have seen in the past month. Is this a new type of pump scam?

Fayafi Investment Holding is not listed on the DIFC register where they state is HQ (difc.com/business/publi…), they do not appear on the DFSA register (dfsa.ae/public-registe…), "SPV Fayafi Investment" is not listed on BB, nor is bond listed on Vienna Xchng - good pump $DEVS

$DEVS the "head of trading" for the supposed UAE fund was a mortgage application underwriter then self-employed for 11 years, the ESG head is a consultant for DEVS since Dec, and the CIO was a lower management guy. All working remotely. Never seen a legitimate UAE fund like that

@arkabagchi24 For sure, I used to enjoy going on Stocktwits after a big readout and looking at the chaos haha

One of the most damaging things option trading gurus (Tastytrade, etc.) did to retail investors was convincing people they can just use an IV Rank / IV Percentile screener to easily harvest volatility risk premia. So you have guys like this considering selling naked puts on $DRRX

@adar170 @ErnieWorthingK9 @brendan_49 I spoke to them after their data and they actually did not tap their ATM at all so it was just flippers

@ErnieWorthingK9 @brendan_49 pounding that atm or doing deal

Faves with some urgency: $REPL $15.15 $900m $IMUX $1.40 $61m $APLT $2.34 $146m $ALDX $5.54 $348m $ATRA $1.68 $175m $FDMT $11.27 $505m $GTHX $1.18 $61m $AVRO $1.61 $72m 8 co’s valued $2.3b combined. A skin cancer franchise; backbone MS drug; a couple potential blue sky orphans & a DCM moonshot; an allo EBV T cell platform w/ an approval & another MS moonshot; the leading, diverse capsid company; a growing approved product + a tiny p value to replicate in 1L TNBC; & several times upside to ORTX comp in lenti. Others cheap with genuine big potential $ABOS $TBIO $BMEA $PLRX medtech X ($200m cap) $FATE $VYGR $ALXO $BBIO of course $VIGL Next $TPST is $CYCC. Mostly kidding.

@Sports_bios No borrow for it shortly after it IPO'd was one of the bigger bummers second to the biotech industry imploding the past few months

I thought the $NMRA IPO mktcap at 2B+ was obscene on risk-adjusted valuation - half of that would be near around my fair value - and I am using the JNJ KOR case as an anchor that they have something that "could" work in the pending MDD trials... this tape has no appetite for stuff priced for the VC returns and none for the after offering public folks.

@AaronRosenblum5 I will check them out, thanks for the heads up about them. I can only speak from experience as a male but with a sub-50g/day carb, 1.5g:lb protein:bodyweight diet I would put on around 15-20lbs of muscle in 8-12 weeks on those. Definitely not long term

@biotech_L_S Sarm is clearly not an option for women or safe enough for men for long term use. Have you looked at $lumo. I expect their pghd data this q to be much better than previous update.

If I am comboing a GLP-1 with a muscle-preservation drug I'm going with RAD-140 or LGD-4033 and hitting Venice Beach, none of this $SRRK 2025 stuff haha

@AaronRosenblum5 I've taken that before too, I'm gonna go with a SARM over a GH secretogogue though. Good for a stack but it's mostly water weight

@biotech_L_S Mk677 aka $lumo. Much safer. You

@QueenOfHeartsSF That’s so odd but it’s not like that school or the others have no Asian students with almost certainly worse scores so I think the narrative on Twitter of nonacceptance largely based on his race is reductive

In other news, Palo Alto Gunn HS Senior Zhong was rejected by 16 colleges he applied to. Some are quite mediocre, like U of Wisconsin with 60% acceptance rate. What went wrong for Zhong? Someone tell me please.

@StuckInStock @BiotechElmo Thanks, Ralph

@biotech_L_S @BiotechElmo $LYRA has 21 months of cash left

$LYRA Clean data: investors.lyratherapeutics.com/static-files/8… Ongoing cc: edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/xfx5b2kt/

@BiotechElmo @StuckInStock Oh, I saw cash at $22mm as of 6/30

@Biohazard3737 A terminal growth rate of 2% as a bear case is idiotic, especially in patent industries. But so are randomly assigned WACCs

$LRMR bringing the $HZNP CMO to the board following the lifting of the clinical hold in FA seems timely

@arkabagchi24 I'm gonna apply a simple heuristic and assume the $100mm MC company with <$10mm cash at time of upcoming release with a 10yr old Ph2 in ex. US sites is gonna get bodied either way with their me-too PR

This stock goes to almost zero if they fail, right? $RVPH

@arkabagchi24 Yeah, I would watch the proportion in the context of the weekly NRx

@biotech_L_S Yes rebates driving up the VC reserve vs. trade receivables is the highest probability situation for $AXSM at the moment given recent launch. But if we keep seeing the Variable Considerations reserve vs trade receivables ratio growing for $AXSM in future quarters... a red flag?

Look at this "Reserves for variable consideration" line item in $AXSM's latest 10-Q in the Accounts Receivable area. Anyone have any thoughts on if this means that $AXSM's distributor, McKesson, is retaining the product a lot?

@arkabagchi24 Looking at the proportion of VC reserve vs. trade receivables YE22 - 1Q23, that has creeped up from 19.4% - 22.5%. A 3.1% bump could be due to poor estimation of end user demand, but for a recent Oct 22 launch it makes more sense to be rebates to drive uptake. Just my 2 cents

@arkabagchi24 Certainly, that item is specifically tied to demand. But the question is demand at what level in the commercial chain - if it hasn't made its way into the formulary, are there more pts utilizing the savings card from the drug website? That will directly feed into their VC est.