Sabitlenmiş Tweet
Bjorn Ng
3.4K posts
Bjorn Ng
@bjornng
Long term fundamentals + options investor. Documenting my journey, lessons, and thought process through a decade of investing.
Singapore Katılım Haziran 2009
196 Takip Edilen2.2K Takipçiler
Bjorn Ng retweetledi
my general take on this question around fomo is pretty simple
“should I buy $MU at $800?”
well, if you buy it here and are not ECSTATIC to buy it 20-30% lower on a dip, then you should not give into the fomo
being on the sidelines of a trade is so much healthier than thinking you have to chase it
buying at ATHs means you are acknowledging that you want to be part of the story but the risk outweighs the reward so you HAVE to accept being ready to DCA
fomo happens when you buy something just to buy and then if it dips, you have no idea what you bought so you buy high sell low
any fomo buy should be rooted in accepting it is a chase and then being ready to average down in case it collapses
or, just don’t chase a name that you missed and be okay with missing it
it doesn’t have to be so mentally draining, there many opportunities in the market beyond the names that capture most attention and not being part of them AND not taking the risk of being part of them is okay
English
I guess... Anon finally listened?
20,000 subscribers is unreal for some random on X.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Honestly... I don't even know at this point? 0 to 155,000+ followers, 10,000 subscribers... in under a year. 900%+ year to date... Off 13+ individual stocks from $AAOI to $LITE hitting triple digits returns in 4 months. Call me aura farming Serenity Jin-woo (last post about this topic i swear, 10,000 just looks cool). Jokes aside, thanks everyone for this opportunity. I genuinely want to make a difference to the retail community. Getting tired of institutions shafting retail or seeing $2000+ paywalls so hope to bridge the gap in information discovery/synthesis.
English
It still blows my mind that thousands of you tune in every week for deep-dive macro trading and investing content (111,000 views in 2 days on the last video).
I approach every video exactly the same way I did back when I had under 100 views. I had zero expectations, but the same level of enjoyment.
I started this channel primarily because it forced me to do research for my own portfolio. If it helped even a handful along the way… that was just the cherry on top.
None of this is taken for granted. Since 2021, every single livestream became a fundraiser for St. Jude Children’s Hospital. To everyone who shows up, taps in, comments, and supports week after week… thank you. Truly. Grateful beyond words. ❤️
English
정말 훌륭한 분석입니다! 제가 나서서 $HIMS 를 옹호하게 될 줄은 개인적으로 꿈에도 몰랐지만, 그들은 실제로 다음 기업들을 인수하는 데 성공했습니다:
Zava (유럽/영국)
Livewell (캐나다)
Eucalyptus (호주/일본)
그리고 세계 최대 규모의 헬스케어 리테일 고객 네트워크(retail capture)를 구축해 냈습니다. 이 모든 것을 FTC나 규제 당국의 제재 없이 해냈죠. 이런 잠재력을 보면 과거 $META 가 WhatsApp과 기타 플랫폼들을 인수했던 때가 확실히 떠오릅니다. 여기에 $HOOD 가 새로운 기능들을 교차 판매(cross-selling)했던 전략이 결합된 모습입니다.
결국, 이 거대한 유통 네트워크를 어떻게 수익화할지 그 방법을 찾아내는 것은 전적으로 경영진의 실행력에 달려 있습니다.
한국어
$HIMS 불케이스와 잠재 수익화 가능성ㅣ260310
1. $HIMS 의 핵심 해자는 단순히 특정 의약품 판매 역량이 아니라, 소비자 헬스케어 영역에서의 리테일 네트워크 장악력임. 미국 내 약 2.5억 명 규모의 기존 사용자 기반에 더해, 2025년 ZAVA 인수(유럽: 영국·독일·프랑스·아일랜드, 활성 고객 130만 명 이상)와 2026년 2월 Eucalyptus 인수(호주·일본, 약 77만 5천 명 고객, 연매출 약 $450M) 발표를 통해 글로벌 리테일 헬스 플랫폼으로 포지셔닝하고 있음.
2. 이 구도는 과거 $HOOD 와 $META 가 각각 핀테크와 소셜미디어 부문에서 걸었던 경로와 유사함. Robinhood는 주식 거래 앱으로 대규모 리테일 유저를 확보한 뒤, 뱅킹·신용카드·예측시장 등 신규 수익 스트림을 붙여가며 각각이 $100M+ 수익을 내는 구조를 만들었고, META는 WhatsApp·Instagram 인수 후 유저당 최대 광고 수익을 뽑아내는 방식으로 $1.6T급 기업이 됨. $HIMS 는 현재 그 사이클의 초입에 있음.
3. 핵심 논지는 "Zava와 Eucalyptus가 전통적으로 벌어들이는 매출"을 모델링하는 게 아니라, 이 인수들로 새로 확보된 글로벌 리테일 유저 수 자체에 주목해야 한다는 것임. 이 유저 기반이 바로 아직 수익화되지 않은 잠재 매출의 원천이자, 향후 컨센서스를 초과하는 어닝 서프라이즈의 가능성을 내포하고 있음.
4. 기존 미국 시장에서 $HIMS 는 탈모·발기부전에서 시작해 비만 치료제(GLP-1) 영역으로 확장하며 테스토스테론 등 다양한 조제 의약품으로 유저당 수익을 키워왔음. 그러나 FDA의 규제 개입과 $NVO 소송 등으로 GLP-1 전략에 제동이 걸렸고, 이 불확실성이 2026년 초 단기 공매도 세력이 집중되는 계기가 됨. 실제로 단기 공매도 잔고는 2026년 2월 기준 float 대비 33.7%까지 상승함.
5. 바로 이 시점에서 게임체인저 이벤트가 발생함. 2026년 3월, $NVO 와 $HIMS 가 법적 분쟁을 종료하고 장기 파트너십을 전격 체결, $HIMS 플랫폼을 통해 FDA 승인 비만 치료제 Wegovy를 공식 유통하기로 함. 이는 단순한 소송 해결 이상의 의미로, $HIMS 가 GLP-1 복제약 논란에서 벗어나 정품 비만 치료제의 합법적 유통 채널로 재포지셔닝됨을 뜻함.
6. $NVO 입장에서도 이 딜은 매력적임. $HIMS 는 디지털 헬스케어 플랫폼 중 리테일 소비자 접근성이 가장 높은 채널 중 하나로, $NVO 로서는 Wegovy의 디지털 유통망을 단번에 확보하는 효과가 있음. 사실상 양사가 서로의 약점을 보완하는 구조임. $NVO 는 브랜드 유통채널을, $HIMS 는 합법적 고마진 의약품 공급처를 얻은 셈.
7. 그러나 핵심 불확실성은 여전히 남아 있음. 헬스케어는 핀테크나 소셜미디어에 비해 크로스셀링 난이도가 근본적으로 높음. 규제 환경이 복잡하고, 프라이버시 이슈가 민감하며, 국가별 의료 규제 장벽이 다양함. 예를 들어 유럽 내 GDPR 및 각국의 원격의료 규제는 플랫폼이 데이터를 활용해 유저에게 추가 서비스를 제안하는 방식을 상당히 제한할 수 있음.
8. 그럼에도 불구하고 Eucalyptus의 Juniper(여성 체중 관리·갱년기 케어)와 Pilot(남성 원격의료) 같은 브랜드는 이미 현지화된 소비자 신뢰와 브랜드 인지도를 갖추고 있음. $HIMS 가 미국에서 축적한 운영 노하우를 이 플랫폼들에 이식하면서, 테스토스테론 관리·성 건강·탈모 등 검증된 수익 카테고리를 새로운 글로벌 유저에게 적용할 여지가 충분히 존재함.
9. 주가 밸류에이션 측면에서 보면, 12개월 평균 목표주가는 $27.46으로 현재가 대비 76% 업사이드를 내포하고 있음. 33%대의 높은 공매도 잔고는 악재로 볼 수도 있지만, 동시에 숏스퀴즈의 트리거 조건이기도 함. $NVO 파트너십, Eucalyptus 클로징(2026년 중반 예정), 글로벌 수익화 초기 지표가 예상보다 좋게 나올 경우, 공매도 청산 수요가 주가 상승을 폭발적으로 가속시킬 수 있는 구조임.
10. 결국 $HIMS 가 $30B급 기업이 될지 $5B에 머물지는 경영진이 글로벌 유저베이스를 얼마나 빠르고 정교하게 수익화하느냐에 달려 있음. 현재 사이드라인에 있는 투자자 입장에서 보면, $NVO 파트너십 공식화, 높은 공매도 잔고, 그리고 아직 수익화가 시작조차 되지 않은 수백만 명의 글로벌 신규 유저라는 세 가지 조건이 동시에 맞물려 있는 시점임. 이 잠재 수익 확장이 실현되는 오프찬스에 베팅하는 것이 지금 롱 포지션 재진입을 고려할 이유임.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Feels like people aren't articulating the bull case for $HIMS correctly: Here's my view. The main moat of $HIMS is network capture of retail audiences. And the bull case is latent revenue monetization. $HOOD achieved that same effect in fintech over 2025. $META (fully grown) achieved that same effect in the social media sector over the past decade. $HIMS is now at the starting point in 2026. But given millions of new users across the globe (Europe, Australia, Japan, Canada) from Zava + Eucalyptus: $HIMS now has that one-of-a-kind retail audience capture in the healthcare sector. However, the difference between ~$70B companies in Robinhood and $1.6T giants in $META is that: They've already successfully monetized their retail audiences both through margin optimization, and new revenue streams. And very aggressively. $HIMS has not yet. Robinhood did so by pushing new products from banking/credit cards/prediction markets/etc. And they are all now independently generating $100m+ each as new revenue streams. $META did so by capturing the maximum amount of revenue per user after acquiring WhatsApp/Instagram. However, $HIMS has not gotten the chance to yet in the same way they did with the US (eg. Testosterone). Especially partially due to former lawsuits. Now that's cleared up, the bull case can be seen again: Instead of modeling what revenue Zava/Eucalyptus traditionally brought, the important thing to look at is retail network capture through # of people. As this is biggest source of latent revenue + revenue projection beats not priced in. Now, the billion dollar question is: Will $HIMS end up like $HOOD? $HIMS now has the one of the largest retail networks + distribution for healthcare. However, cross-selling seems much harder in healthcare vs. fintech or social media channels. The answer whether it ends up a $30B company or a $5B one is up for management to figure out. So for people on the sideline, it might be worth flipping long again in the off-chance $HIMS manages to figure out latent revenue expansion from their new global userbase. The ~40%+ short interest and the new $NVO partnership serves as a huge bonus as well.
한국어
@aleabitoreddit More than your trade ideas, I love your thought process :) truly a solid sleuther
English
Wow… 100K followers just now!
Glad this many people find my thoughts about $AAOI to $EWY helpful.
From reflection, I think it’s largely because I’ve been staying true to what I’ve done at the start:
-> information synthesis
-> finding new angles that people haven’t looked at
-> publishing actionable trade ideas from small bottlenecks to megacap companies.
-> celebrating if they turn out correct!
And I think majority of them from last year:
From $AXTI to $LITE ended up being right and doubling or tripling, hence the recent popularity.
Not many people are as interested in the research process but when they see the fruition of it two months later, I guess they start paying more attention?
Regardless, I’ll keep doing what I’ve been doing when I had 800 followers. When it was just me and some friends from Reddit.
But it’s amazing X gave me this opportunity to share my thoughts to others.
Hitting 100K followers is slight validation to me that my ideas I publish for free are at least worth reading (even if you don’t follow them).
So, just wanted to say a thank you to all of you!
English
Despite a strong Q4 earnings report, good guidance and bullish commentary... $TMDX just pulled back to the 200d.
Looks like some people are worried that $TMDX could be impacted by higher fuel costs when in reality they've said before they pass along the majority of fuel costs to their customers ie transplant centers through "pre-negotiated fuel surcharge thresholds". More thoughts on this below.
We just updated our $TMDX daily flight tracker... currently averaging 32 flights per day (for March) through 10am on March 9th after averaging 29.2 flights per day in January and 28.5 flights per day in February.
March 2025, $TMDX did 25.8 flights per day so we're currently tracking 24% YoY growth in daily flights but keep in mind the % of ground transports has increased.
In March 2025, assuming $TMDX was doing 30-35% of transplants via ground transport and in March 2026 that number is closer to 40% (as management has said), then the actual number of total transplants is likely up 40% YoY which means revenues would also be tracking at 40% YoY.
We crunched some numbers last week on the jet fuel costs and it should have minimal impact on $TMDX results especially if they're passing the higher prices onto their customers through those pre-negotiated fuel surcharges.
NFA.
DYOR.
**I own $TMDX personally and so does @FirstWaveFund
We also added to our position today :)
Jonah Lupton@JonahLupton
Very strong earnings report from $TMDX Q4 revs of $160.8M, up +32% YoY Q4 eps of $0.63 (basic), up +231% YoY Q4 eps of $0.53 (diluted), up +179% YoY 2025 revs of $605.5M, up +37% YoY 2025 net income of $107.5M, up +203% YoY $TMDX gave CY2026 revenue guidance of $727-757M which implies 20-25% YoY growth or 22.5% at the midpoint. Keep in mind, 12 months ago when $TMDX gave their initial CY2025 guidance they started at 22.5% (midpoint) yet they ended up doing 37%. I don't know if $TMDX can do 37% revenue growth again in CY2026 but I'm very confident they'll do at least 30-35%. Anyone that's followed this company the past few years would understand this because Waleed always sandbags guidance. If he's starting at 20-25% then it means $TMDX can get to 30-35%. Assuming $TMDX does 32.5% revenue growth this year, it would put CY2026 revenues at $802.3M which means $TMDX is currently trading at 5.7x NTM revs and 22x NTM ebitda. $TMDX is 30-40% undervalued when you consider their fundamentals, margin expansion, international growth opportunities (Europe & Asia-Pacific), their NOP network and their IP portfolio for OCS including nextgen OCS 2.0 machines (currently in trials). NFA. DYOR. *I own $TMDX personally and so does @FirstWaveFund
English
@aleabitoreddit amazing results, have notifs on and subs, love the way you think and distill down! tho you tried your best to make it as layman as possible, it's still pretty technical but makes it fun to research and understand :)
English
I happened to own every single top individual stock performer this year:
From $AXTI and $AAOI in photonics.
To $SNDK and SK Hynix in memory.
To Nittobo, Macronix, and Unimicron for Asia Bottlenecks.
All triple digit returns in 2 months.
Year to Date: 501.38%
Just lucky I guess?
English
@StockMarketNerd to think i used to have it at 300 and cut my losses at 200+
dodged a huge bullet
English
Shoutout to $TDOC for being a terrible investment.
You scarred me 4 years ago to a point of having zero interest in $HIMS or any other DTC healthcare player.
You rock, Teladoc.
English
Impressive earnings from $TMDX, expected nothing less from Waheed!
- Multiple pipeline catalysts inc. ENHANCE heart programs, de-novo lung initiatives, OCS Kidney development
- Lung transplant is gonna be a banger, in Waleed's words (see picture below)
- NOP model launched across Europe with strong interest, market expansion mode
IMO, many things to get excited about and loads of market to expand still globally. Some expansions are dependent on trials so doubt that'll be anytime soon
Also brother Waleed generally sandbags his guidance and I think 2026 will be no different
Been in since $120s and adding through every dips
Congrats to all $TMDX holders!
English
I also did a full breakdown on Youtube here if you're interested! youtu.be/0oZUc2RCLSg
YouTube
English
