
Blackwater Global
117 posts

Blackwater Global
@blckwtrglobal
Geo - Politics, Legal, Business, Derivatives and Investment Research. Helping Investors & Operators understand risk before it hits P&L.






If talks are successful and an agreement is sealed. Equity markets gap up, Crude prices soften down. If talks are unsuccessful, Crude prices will likely keep rising. Given the data from our previous post and below, the probability of both #Iran and #USA reaching an agreement is highly likely. How do we profit from this data? We create a credit spread on Crude at 120 or a strike with a 0.15 delta with corresponding hedges and let theta play in our favour. As long as Crude remains below 120 until our strike expiry. We profit.


Vikas Khemani known for picking ideas much ahead of others. Invested 15-20Cr in PTC Industries(in Aerospace theme) in 2020 for nearly 5% stake. Today He still holds 2.6% stake in the co which is worth 633 Cr. Nearly 900-1000Cr returns on investment of 15-20Cr. Started watching him back in 2020 when he identified Praj Industries.


If talks are successful and an agreement is sealed. Equity markets gap up, Crude prices soften down. If talks are unsuccessful, Crude prices will likely keep rising. Given the data from our previous post and below, the probability of both #Iran and #USA reaching an agreement is highly likely. How do we profit from this data? We create a credit spread on Crude at 120 or a strike with a 0.15 delta with corresponding hedges and let theta play in our favour. As long as Crude remains below 120 until our strike expiry. We profit.



This is where it ultimately boils down to. #crude #straightofhormuz



Iran’s negotiation track is anything but smooth. A delegation once led by Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf is now facing internal fractures, with hardliners pushing back on the scope of talks. At a critical moment, a message from Ali Khamenei’s inner circle reportedly shut down any discussion on nuclear issues effectively pulling the brakes just as momentum was building. The question now: Does this derail a potential breakthrough or is it just posturing before a deal? Because if negotiations stall, crude stays elevated. If they align, oil could soften quickly. Markets aren’t just watching diplomacy. They’re pricing internal politics. #crudeoil











