Bobby F. 🍁

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Bobby F. 🍁

Bobby F. 🍁

@bobbyfairview

🇨🇦🇧🇲🇧🇧🇮🇪The Remnant | Carefree opinions since 1905

Toronto, Ontario Katılım Ocak 2016
267 Takip Edilen933 Takipçiler
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Bobby F. 🍁
Bobby F. 🍁@bobbyfairview·
📣 Chelsea’s financial statements will start appearing over the next few weeks. They will come out in this order: -> Chelsea FC Holdings Limited -> Blueco 22 Limited -> 22 Holdco Limited That order reflects the ownership structure from the ground up. Each set of accounts sits at a different level of the structure, and each one shows a different part of the financial picture. Be wary that the first set of accounts will not provide the complete picture. This is where they exploit fan confusion from creating fake profits, like last year’s sale of the Women’s team. The first release is Chelsea FC Holdings Limited, which owns Chelsea Football Club Limited. This is the club that sits at the foundation of the asset structure. It signs the players, records transfer amortization, pays wages, and generates the matchday, broadcast, and commercial revenue. It DOES NOT include interest on the debt, Strasbourg or CFCW. Blueco 22 Limited is typically released a few weeks later. This entity carries the senior bank loans arranged with JPMorgan and Bank of America, but the equity for this vehicle was funded by the loans from Ares Management. According to the latest filings, the JPM/BOA facilities total £755.2 million and mature on 13 July 2027. That date is Blueco’s first refinancing hurdle, and with the turmoil in PE markets you need to watch that space. Above that sits 22 Holdco Limited. That company contains the longer-dated financing associated with the Ares Management subordinated debt facility. The 2024 accounts show £410.2 million outstanding but the amount has been reported to have grown to £527m. Like the loans Ares provided to John Textor, this facility is structured as a PIK loan that compounds rather than paying principal and interest. It has a maturity date of 22 August 2033 and is expected to be repaid from sale of the club. The accounts also describe how the lenders are secured. The security package includes shares in the club holding companies, bank accounts, intercompany receivables, and a floating charge over the group’s assets. In other words, the lenders are secured across the ownership structure itself. Every asset in the diagram below is available for repossession. Therefore when someone says the debt is not on the club, ask them what happens to the collateral held by these banks in a foreclosure. To summarize, the football club sits at the bottom generating the cash flows. The loans that have funded the squad build and operating losses sit above it in the holding companies. Clearlake and Boehly Group sit above all that leverage, and there’s no doubt leverage in the £1.6b provided by Clearlake’s institutional investors. When credit is structured like this, the lenders are not relying only on the club’s operating profits. They are underwriting the value of the entire ownership and club structure, including refinancing as the debt matures. The only way they pay back all that they borrowed is sale of the club, which by my estimate requires a 2033 sale of at least £7b for Boehly to breakeven. That is why three timelines are going to be important: ❎ The senior bank facilities mature on 13 July 2027. ❎ Per the 22 Holdco Articles of Association, the shareholder lock-up runs for a decade from the 2022 takeover. ❎ The Ares facility matures on 22 August 2033. This is the date that determines who will be the new owners of CFC LDN. Smart money will probably say that is going to be Ares. So when the accounts start appearing, ignore the PR and focus on the numbers in 22 Holdco. That is the entity that will give the most complete picture of the financing structure and, most importantly, the interest on the debt and operating costs of Strasbourg.
Bobby F. 🍁 tweet media
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Bobby F. 🍁
Bobby F. 🍁@bobbyfairview·
First thing for me to look at is the audit opinion to see what KPMG has to say about 22holdco’s ability to continue as a going concern. If you have a look at what they said last year, it contradicts my view that the owners have a restricted ability to continue funding losses. My second step is to reconcile operating losses (not IFRS income) to my expectation of a £150m operating loss. The next step is to review the statement of cashflow to see how they’re playing with unpaid transfer fees receivable and payable to manage cashflow. Final step is to come here and tweet 😌
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geoff
geoff@SnellGeoff·
@SebC__ @bobbyfairview Debt interest, one off contingencies ..its going to be interesting what financial shenanigans they come up with now they sold the posh china to themselves
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Bobby F. 🍁
Bobby F. 🍁@bobbyfairview·
The solution: Foreclosure by Ares Bankruptcy of 22 Holdco wipes out Clearlake/Boehly’s equity layer so the debt can be refinanced. Investment in a stadium and proper players will require this balance sheet clean up. Stop feeding the beast. Cut off the money! #BluecoOUT
S@SebC__

They can't sell. Best case scenario is Ares Management turning debt into equity and ending up owning 30-60% of the club. And then removing BlueCo executives, and possibly these blokes from their own PE fund

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Bobby F. 🍁
Bobby F. 🍁@bobbyfairview·
@SnellGeoff They’ll still hand it to a board to manage the same way. A lot of what you’re saying is highly subjective and without precedent.
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geoff
geoff@SnellGeoff·
@bobbyfairview And Ares is a completely different set up to Oaktree who buy companies to turn them round and not provide financing and now face much more scrutiny on valuations
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Bobby F. 🍁
Bobby F. 🍁@bobbyfairview·
From the time I first heard Boehly open his mouth about data I knew we’d be screwed in 5 years. Who’d imagine by year 4 a Ligue 1 club would be having a practice session in Stamford Bridge on a UCL night. Trust me, no one wants to hear my prediction about the next 5 years🤦🏼‍♀️
Vince™@Blue_Footy

🗣️ Paul Merson: "Chelsea were blown away by PSG in the Champions League. That was a majorly disappointing performance. Even if you look at Tottenham, they had a clear plan on facing Atletico. I just couldn't see that with Chelsea, literally blown away!" {Sports Keeda}

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Bobby F. 🍁
Bobby F. 🍁@bobbyfairview·
@SnellGeoff Ares will do exactly as Oaktree is doing. The economic incentives are identical. We can’t resolve this based on subjective opinions about the differences between Serie A and the EPL. Factually the financing, revenue and cost structures are the same.
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geoff
geoff@SnellGeoff·
@bobbyfairview Yeah when so much of the price is in the name restructure tends to be problematic in my experience. We've hardly ever made money in my lifetime so the revenues need to be expanded somehow or Ares will drain the assets to pay themselves. They wont spend to get success so....
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Bobby F. 🍁
Bobby F. 🍁@bobbyfairview·
@SnellGeoff @SebC__ Inter is run by football people because creditors don’t have an interest in day to day management of the club. These Blueco idiots think they can manage a club themselves. First Boehly as pretend sporting director, and Eghbali is effectively the same since then.
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geoff
geoff@SnellGeoff·
@SebC__ @bobbyfairview I think tinkering at the edges makes a much bigger difference in every lge apart from PL. We've seen how you can spend a fortune and still get nowhere. Inter take over was after CL was assured so the finances for continued success in series A was assured.
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Bobby F. 🍁
Bobby F. 🍁@bobbyfairview·
@Josephi29139181 Yep, another player that will leave Caiceido on an island. They’re already trying to cash in on one of those.
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Joseph ian
Joseph ian@Josephi29139181·
@bobbyfairview He was a left back who couldn't defend at Brighton,now he plays at midfielder
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Bobby F. 🍁
Bobby F. 🍁@bobbyfairview·
@SnellGeoff It’s already a vastly different club. It’s a recovery strategy that allows for further investment.
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geoff
geoff@SnellGeoff·
@bobbyfairview Legally yes but the consequences are going to be a vastly different club. Not against that but to those who think Ares come in and hey presto CL here we come need to understand what a restructuring means
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Bobby F. 🍁
Bobby F. 🍁@bobbyfairview·
@SnellGeoff Well that is now a discussion about football opinions. Not the mechanics of the incentive structure for creditors versus equity holders. Legally and financially my proposal works.
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geoff
geoff@SnellGeoff·
@bobbyfairview Yes and you know I think the circumstances are materially different with the clubs and also the leagues. The PL is far more competitive and requires a level of expenditure to stay still that you cant compare it to serie A imho
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Bobby F. 🍁
Bobby F. 🍁@bobbyfairview·
I’d love to be Inter. Oaktree took control and put experienced football men in charge. It’s better to be owned by creditors because their objective is to recover their original fixed return, not chase upside. Then the club can operate without having to pay back Boehly or Clearlake.
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john
john@JohnAnd26·
@bobbyfairview Lovely just when you think it can’t get any worse 🤣🤣
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Bobby F. 🍁
Bobby F. 🍁@bobbyfairview·
Because Eghbali agreed with Boehly that they WON’T sell for 10 years doesn’t mean they CAN’T sell for 10 years. Blueco can be sold! Go to UK Companies House and read 22 Holdco Limited’s Articles of Association yourself, and you’ll see what was agreed. #BluecoOUT
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Bobby F. 🍁
Bobby F. 🍁@bobbyfairview·
@JohnAnd26 To your original point, it’s more likely that they can’t find a buyer and Ares Management forecloses. Just like Inter and AC Milan.
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john
john@JohnAnd26·
@bobbyfairview I see. So 10 year talk was bullshit. Do you think they will sell ?
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Steveo
Steveo@Steve0166764812·
@bobbyfairview So 10m on Nkunku and we didn't lose money on Felix, maybe you should use that machine yourself Muppet. i will wait for all the other players you said we lost money on. take your time!
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Bobby F. 🍁
Bobby F. 🍁@bobbyfairview·
Interesting read. Advanced Brighton indeed, maybe just a little more naive. Resale values got hammered since last season. That’s why they lost so much on the players they sold last summer. Hence the enforced rotation on the basis of some bogus excuse of medical advice,
Rodin Simi@RodinSimi

Why do Chelsea’s owners want the club to qualify for the Europa League or Conference League? The Champions League is far more competitive and doesn’t allow room for trial and error. As a result, there is little opportunity for heavy rotation. In contrast, the Europa League and Conference League give the coach a good platform to rotate the squad and develop players. In simple terms, the owners seem willing to sign as many under-20 players as possible, develop them through these competitions, and then resell them for profit. For example, players like Tyrique George, Noni Madueke, Renato Veiga, Jørgensen, and Marc Guiu got game time under Maresca in the Conference League. This season, however, that hasn’t happened. Some players’ resale value has dropped significantly due to limited game time. As a result, it appears the owners may have intentionally avoided reinforcing the centre-back position, making the team weaker. We can see through the thin lines, and it seems these owners are here primarily for business. If that side is working, winning trophies becomes irrelevant. If they were as ambitious as they claim, they could have already started constructing a new stadium. Welcome to advanced Brighton.

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Bobby F. 🍁
Bobby F. 🍁@bobbyfairview·
Don’t be fooled. This is a highly coordinated PR strategy between Enzo and the club. It should now be obvious that Blueco needs to sell a player like Enzo Fernandez to balance the books. And that will not even be enough. God help them if they miss UCL.
JnR@CFCJnR

Rosenior said he had a "great" talk with Enzo Fernandez this morning after his comments. "He made it clear he's happy here, and is really passionate to win at this football club". Don't even know if this is damage control from Chelsea or if it's just the truth now.

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Bobby F. 🍁 retweetledi
Buchi Laba
Buchi Laba@Buchi_Laba·
It’s actually very stupid business. Chelsea were willing to pay the full value for Olise to Crystal palace but want him to join for reduced wages. Same thing happens with Maignan and Osimhen! - You’re willing to pay the selling club the money they want but you want world class players to come on Reduced wages or take a wage cuts! Who are you? What will Chelsea offer to players for them to join on Reduced Wages! It’s stupid. The owners of Chelsea are running the club like a small club. If you want world class players. You pay world class players. It’s simple like ABC.
amadí@amadoit__

Olise signed for Bayern for £50m in July, we signed Neto for £54m and João Félix for £45m in August. ‘felt finances involved beyond reach’ as they didn’t want to break their wage structure so instead they ended up overpaying for less talent. smart business, that.

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