Bobby F. 🍁

Dear @ebehdad RE: The Conflict of Perverse Incentives I want to be fair to you. You had less than a month to structure a complex billion pound transaction, so some mistakes were always going to happen. But the mistake I’m describing isn’t an execution error. It’s a conceptual flaw baked into the deal from day one, and it has permanently poisoned your strategic position. You built a structure with three stakeholder groups, and you only have a fiduciary duty to one of them. That was always going to end badly. Let me explain why. A man came to you and said he had £300m and wanted to buy a business for £4.2bn. Two of his mates would chip in £300m each. You lent him the rest. To their credit, they’ve been matching cash calls ever since. But here is what you actually agreed to: you needed Boehly’s money, which meant Boehly got something in return. What he got was influence over the sporting operation. And the first thing he did with it was sack Thomas Tuchel so he could have his dressing room access. That decision, made to protect your financial relationship with a co-investor who couldn’t actually afford the asset, is what set everything else in motion. Roman left you a blueprint. He won trophies, built a global brand, and maintained a fair value that always exceeded his cost basis. Central to that was Cobham. Fans across England sing “he’s one of our own” for a reason. That bond between a club and its homegrown players is not sentiment. It is enterprise value. You dismantled it. You sold the graduates and killed the pipeline, not because it made sporting sense, but because your financial model required short term asset monetisation over long term brand construction. You have now spent more on transfers than any ownership group in the history of football. Chelsea are currently 9th. Below Brentford. Below Brighton. That is the sporting output of your model, and those fans who sang “he’s one of our own” have noticed. Here is where your conceptual flaw becomes permanent. Boehly has £100m of interest accrued and payable to Ares. You have at least £600m sitting in the Cayman Islands, accruing and payable to COP III. Across the group the interest bill is approaching £400m this year. That means you have no choice but to run this club for one purpose: to make debt service payments. Managing a football club to pay interest has never worked in the history of this game unless you’re Manchester United. Your problem is that you don’t have their revenues. So you are flipping players to fund cash flow. There will be no properly experienced signings. No manager with real authority. No trophies. You’re caught in a sell-to-buy death spiral and fans have worked out exactly what is happening. If you’ve made it this far in my letter, this is the part I’d encourage you to sit up and focus on. You need the fans more than they need you. Every day more of them are learning what this structure actually means for the club they love, and they are making a rational decision: do not buy the brand of an owner who is just here to pay interest. Your perverse incentive is to balance the books, manage the asset, and extract the best possible valuation before the debt matures. Their perverse incentive is to make sure you never get there, because the only exit that actually serves their interests is Ares foreclosing and forcing a sale to someone who can run this club properly. Think about what that means. The fans who generate the revenue you need to service your debt are now rationally incentivised to undermine that revenue. You created a structure where your key stakeholder group is rooting for your creditor to take the club from you. That is not a communication problem or a PR problem. It is a structural conflict with no resolution inside your current ownership model. I’m not sure what the long term prognosis is for a business in that position. But I think you already know. Yours truly, bf

@ToonTacticsTV @CFC_EH Well you've just changed my mind. He supersedes Glasner for me.

@bobbyfairview @CFC_EH Oh Iriola, yeh he ad trouble with injuries Spain, but less so for Bournemouth, maybe he's learned?

Under-performers: Chelsea - horrific man-management Palace - Glasner needs a better team Newcastle - sack Howe Over-performers: Sunderland - 26/27 relegation candidate Villa - lives off individual brilliance All others 1 - 2 off their position in the table. Pretty stable.

@ToonTacticsTV @CFC_EH Iraola. You thought his style of play leads to injuries?

@bobbyfairview @CFC_EH My view on Tyler Adams?

Hee hee....well this is unravelling quickly. I need to have more chest with my predictions. If you want delusion, speak to an IT professional. These geeks think they understand more than they do. Industry will overreach as usual, then realize they need HUMANS to watch these self-sabotaging machines.

@ToonTacticsTV @CFC_EH Oh, so have you changed your view on him? I knew that was a big red flag for you. Tbf, a European campaign would change that picture rapidly.

@bobbyfairview @CFC_EH Not for key players. Other than Tyler Adams, they had good availability and fewer games played.

@PrinceD81292144 If press reports are to be believed, the list seems quite long.

@bobbyfairview I'm waiting to see our best players, they are going to sell.

Much good that does when you have to sell your best players

Who gives a shit about internal thoughts at Stamford Bridge? Do they even think? #BluecoOUT

So now we will pretend that Cucu isn't a top LCB in a back 3? Just admit you can't afford to keep him and stop gaslighting please.

@TOnyejegbu Happens when you stupidly dismantle something that was working on the recommendation of an AI bot

@bobbyfairview Rebuilding that never ends for #BlueCo Been rebuilding since 2022! Other clubs have spent less and won major hours: Arsenal about £800m, won EPL title Sunderland came from relegation to qualify for Europa League! #BlueCo spent £2bn in 4 yrs & are still rebuilding? Smh

Code for Alonso having to sell his best players

@ToonTacticsTV @CFC_EH That's a lot of red 😂

@bobbyfairview @CFC_EH

@Ruke_kvell Ha….you might be right

@bobbyfairview remember i told you bout Relegation!!!

Boehly is openly terrified of relegation because in the US not having it creates a floor for investors. That West Ham vs Spurs relegation derby must’ve had them shitting themselves. Thinking about it, this could actually be the fastest way to get them to fold🤔

@CFC_EH @ToonTacticsTV Toon, can you do one of your injury outputs for Bournemouth to see what the data is saying?

@bobbyfairview @ToonTacticsTV Surely Iraola to Liverpool? Seems inevitable. Kompany to City once our mate Maresca gets booted. Glasner to Bayern. Hurzeler is overrated in my opinion. Why will Iraola have loads of injuries? Not enough squad depth? His squads are usually very fit.

@ChrisB_25 For someone who thinks they’re equally clever, that’s the last time you’ll ever say anything to me

@bobbyfairview For someone who thinks they’re clever you fall for a lot of fake ITK accounts

£130m? Have a day off. Blueco has no choice but to sell to the highest bidder.

@CFC_EH @ToonTacticsTV Glasner is the best coach in the league and will guarantee trophies. Don’t know if he’s over-reliant on his formation. Iraola is not far behind. He probably will have a lot of injuries though. Hurzeler bottled the UEFA Cup, so I’m not going to shout his name too loud yet.

@bobbyfairview @ToonTacticsTV Who would you replace him with? Glasner?

@RubinWeston @CFCJacob90 @evilbluebird I dunno chaps, if this were to happen it would be an improvement on the Inter/Oaktree model. Not sure how reliable this is, of course.

@CFCJacob90 @evilbluebird Every word. This is even more important than getting rid of Blueco. And also dictates who our next owner is. We can’t have PE selling to PE. The Independent Regulator needs to engage with this catastrophic threat to our national sport.

It feels like there’s a real need to restrict majority private equity ownership across football’s ecosystem. There doesn’t appear to be many genuine success stories where PE ownership has taken over a football club and sustainably improved it both on and off the pitch. Instead, many seem to follow similar blueprints. Gut existing infrastructure, install their own people often with limited football experience, leverage complex debt structures, strip back club heritage and identity, exploit loyal fanbases, all whilst performances on the pitch nosedive. Football clubs are pillars of our communities and cultural institutions not the next investment opportunity for a PE to destroy. The Independent Football Regulator should be looking at PE ownership models as a matter of urgency because they pose a genuine threat to the long term health of the game domestically and internationally.

@CFC_EH @ToonTacticsTV He’s a good coach, but he’s proven over the last 4 seasons that he can’t manage a domestic and European campaign. Every team has injuries, so to apply that to two consecutive UCL seasons is carrying it way too far. I tend not to argue with outcomes😂

@ToonTacticsTV @bobbyfairview I think with a fully/semi-fully fit team he would do very well. Also losing Isak doesn't help. However, I do see your point. I just think he is an excellent manager.

Clearlake is uniquely arrogant, destructive and incompetent. Not all PE firms act like this. If this happens, Red Bird would be following the same management model as Oaktree at Inter. That’s a model that seems to be working.

@ISuisIch @FrankTheBeef5 If they were to break even every year from here (which they won’t), at current interest rates the balance on the Ares loan will breach the net equity in June 2031.

@bobbyfairview @FrankTheBeef5 Ok, when you put it that way, it crazzy😅😂

It’s frustrating my friend, but I’m sure lines are pouring out of the merch stores. There’s only one way out of this. There needs to be a balance sheet reset and change in control. Ask a lawyer how that happens👍🏽 #BluecoOUT

City hiring a manager with a 49% league win rate works for me. Help yourselves and good luck.

@Nick_CFC2021 Yep, watch the deluded Diarra rule dinosaurs start crying.

@bobbyfairview You don’t miss much - shooting him down instantly 💯✅🤣🤣🤣