Robert Ratcliffe

@axios @PalmerLuckey @demarest_colin Until it goes south. Then the end of modern civilization.

💥 Anduril founder @PalmerLuckey tells @demarest_colin on The Axios Show what weapons he would (and wouldn’t) build. “I think that nuclear weapons have been one of the most stabilizing forces in history ever.”

@elonmusk Yes. Read all eleven volumes. Did it in my 20s and it’s still the best thing I’ve ever read. Shaped my intellectual life to this day.

Read The Story of Civilization by Durant

@BarackObama @rfscivics You’re kidding right? Pass the baton to the next generation? Your party is full of 70 and 80 year olds who refuse to go home. Far worse than Republicans.

I’ve always believed that one of our jobs as leaders is to pass the baton on to the next generation –– and to give them the resources and support they need to lead us forward. On National Run for Office Day, check out @RFSCivics for the resources you need. runforsomethingcivics.net

@JBPritzker And I’m sure Illinois’ massive fiscal problems are President Trump’s fault?

Oil prices are up. Measles is back. Farms are folding. Tariffs are raising grocery costs. Illinoisans have been sent to fight another Middle East war. Trump has been an unmitigated disaster for America.

@RichardHaass Do they actually get the cash? Or is it impounded? Huge difference.

The oil the US is allowing iran to sell is too small to stabilize energy markets, but it is large enough to help iran fight the war & raise its price for ending it. truly misguided. open.substack.com/pub/richardhaa…

@McFaul My understanding is that money from the sale of floating embargoed oil will be impounded. Am I wrong? Even if the IRGC could get their hands on it, what a price they’d paid. The statement from Mr Fishman is patently stupid.

Trump is rewarding the Iranian theocrats for bad behavior.

It actually makes sense. With the US gone, the Gulf states and the Europeans, Chinese, and Indians are free to negotiate with Iran over the terms of use. I’m sure they’ll figure it out. Maybe they’ll pay a toll. Dollars to doughnuts they’d never use military force against the Iranians. It will be fascinating to see how it plays out.

President Trump appears to be setting the stage for US withdrawal and leaving local states the task of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Think of it as a new Trump Doctrine for the Middle East: "We broke it but you own it." open.substack.com/pub/richardhaa…

What percentage? How about most? How will we know? When they launch only a few each day. What we’re doing is deterrence. As for restarting production lines and rebuilding—good luck. We’ve set them back probably ten years or more. And in the next ten years while they’re trying to regain their terror weapons we’ll have developed new technologies that will dwarf the capabilities we displayed to completely dismantle their military infrastructure. Long term they’re doomed. Unfortunately, 90 million Iranians will be ruled by vicious thugs. We can’t do anything about that. Only the Iranian people can. The President’s idea of wrapping this up shortly and leaving may have merit. The Gulf states, the Europeans, and the Chinese and Indians can figure out the Straits issue directly with the Iranians. I’m sure they can.

"Weakening Iran’s conventional military capabilities advances the security interests of the United States and Israel. The fewer missiles, launchers, ships, and drones that autocratic Iran has, the better. But what percentage of these weapons must we destroy to achieve victory? 70%? 80%? 90%? How will we know if this objective has been achieved? And once the war is over, what will prevent the surviving regime in Iran from restarting production of these weapons? And why has the Trump administration determined that deterrence no longer works?"

@McFaul BS, and you know it. Without our various ops centers running the intelligence and targeting efforts Ukraine would most likely collapse. Every subsequent post of yours seeks to cast the administration in the worst possible light when it comes to either Ukraine or Iran.

The US is not sharing the burden with the rest of NATO regarding support for Ukraine. Trump cut to zero our direct military and economic assistance. Zero. (Selling weapons to NATO to make money is not “help.”)

How about multiple hits on the same exact spot? Plus I’ve got to believe that as you get closer (deeper in the rock) through multiple explosions the cumulative effects from the shock waves could collapse the structure. Another approach would be to collapse all the entry points. The only reason to send in Special Operations would be to attempt to seize the material. I’m sure the right people have been working this type of targeting for years, if not decades.

JUST IN: Iran moved its uranium into a mountain. The biggest conventional bomb on Earth cannot reach it. Fox News reported on 11th March, citing US intelligence, that Iran has relocated its remaining enriched uranium stockpile to the facility known as Pickaxe Mountain, Kūh-e Kolang Gaz Lā, a tunnel complex buried 80 to 100 metres deep in granite bedrock one mile south of Natanz. CSIS satellite imagery from February confirms accelerated construction: multiple tunnel portals, concrete sarcophagus shields over entrances, security walls, heavy machinery, and spoil piles indicating rapid interior expansion since the 2025 strikes destroyed Iran’s above-ground enrichment infrastructure. The GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, the weapon that hit Parchin, weighs 30,000 pounds. It penetrates up to 200 feet of earth or 60 feet of reinforced concrete. Granite is neither earth nor concrete. It is igneous rock with a compressive strength that exceeds both. One hundred metres of granite is 328 feet. The GBU-57’s maximum earth penetration is 200 feet. The uranium sits 128 feet beyond the reach of the most powerful conventional weapon the United States possesses. Fourteen GBU-57s were dropped on Iranian nuclear sites during Operation Midnight Hammer in 2025. The strikes destroyed centrifuge halls. They did not destroy the programme. They taught Iran where the ceiling was, and Iran built beneath it. Every bomb that hit Fordow and Natanz was a lesson in depth. Pickaxe Mountain is the final exam: a facility designed specifically to survive the weapon designed specifically to destroy it. The IAEA estimated 440.9 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium before the war. After the strikes, Grossi assessed approximately 200 kilograms may remain. That material, seven to eleven nuclear weapons’ worth at one week’s further enrichment, is now inside a granite mountain that no bomb can penetrate and no inspector can enter because Iran has denied IAEA access to every site struck since 28 February. The war’s existential minimum was defined by Defence Secretary Hegseth: no nukes. The nuclear infrastructure must be destroyed with or without regime change. The GBU-57 was the instrument. Pickaxe Mountain is the limit. The instrument has met a material it cannot defeat. The existential minimum has hit a ceiling of stone. What remains is a decision the United States has never made in the nuclear age. The material cannot be destroyed from the air. It can only be reached through the door. Special forces insertion into a tunnel complex defended by IRGC units operating under the Mosaic Doctrine, with sealed orders, inside a country whose 31 autonomous commands have been firing continuously for fourteen days. The Pentagon is weighing this option. Fox’s Jesse Watters reported it as a “near-impenetrable site requiring potential special forces insertion.” The language is careful. The implication is not. A ground operation to seize enriched uranium from a granite bunker inside hostile territory would be the most consequential special forces mission since Abbottabad. Except Abbottabad was one compound, one target, one night. Pickaxe Mountain is a tunnel system buried under 100 metres of rock, defended by a military that cannot surrender because its commander is a wounded man issuing orders from a hospital bed through a television anchor, and its doctrine was designed to fight without him. The bomb cannot reach it. The inspectors cannot enter it. The Supreme Leader will not open it. The material inside is seven days from becoming a weapon. And the mountain does not negotiate. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

Sorry, Senator, but you’re absolutely wrong, and if you could get past your need to spout partisan nonsense, and your hatred of Trump, you just might acknowledge the obvious. President Trump has gravely wounded the Iranian regime. They’ll never be the same. It probably doesn’t matter who the new “Supreme Leader” is. The entire ruling class in Iran hates us, wants to annihilate Israel, and is incapable of change. But you know that, also. Short of a Japan/Germany occupation à la WWII we cannot influence who leads Iran. The best we can do is cripple their military capabilities and ensure they’ll never have a nuclear weapon. And as the president correctly stated, hold the threat of total destruction of their infrastructure and oil production over their heads. This will most likely be over in days, not months. But you know all this. As an accomplished, retired Navy Captain, and obviously smart, you fully understand the strategic picture in the Middle East. You just choose partisan politics over the good of the nation and the world. Very sad. Once upon a time US Senators were statesmen.

It took Trump 10 days to create an energy crisis reminiscent of the 1970s, replace Ayatollah Khamenei with Ayatollah Khamenei, and weaken our alliances worldwide. He put American servicemembers in harm’s way, resulting in seven deaths. None of this made you safer or better off.

@McFaul So you don’t support the creation of a Kurdish nation? The Kurds are forever bound by European designated borders? All the Kurds in Turkey, Iraq, and Iran should just give up their dream of a homeland? All borders are inviolate? Careful on that one.

This is a mistake. The United States should respect Iran's territorial integrity. Encouraging separatist forces could trigger civil war.

@GavinNewsom Just like the high speed rail project. Oops—that hasn’t gone too well.

Donald Trump is all about destruction. Destruction is not strength. He’s not a builder. Any jackass can knock down a barn, it takes a skilled carpenter to build one. Donald Trump is a jackass.

@ColMoeDavis Idiot. The President of the United States, the Commander in Chief can do what he wants. By the way, the President actually knows how to salute properly.

From the 193rd Special Operations Wing website: “Members should salute as the flag passes by. Former military members not in uniform may salute. However, civilians should not salute. As a sign of respect, civilians should instead remove any head gear and place it over their heart. In the absence of head gear, the customary gesture is to place the right hand over the heart.” First President to take the “dignity” out of a “dignified” transfer

No, it’s because that degrees don’t define a person. Accomplishment does. Having a degree, attending an elite school, having a PhD after your name is meaningless, especially where we’re headed with AI. The reign of the credentialed elite is coming to an end. No one cares about your academic achievement.

Why do Republicans say AOC is "just a bartender" when she has a masters degree in economics, but they don't say Markwayne Mullin is just a plumber? HINT: racism and misogyny

Who’s done more for Ukraine over the last four years than the US? And don’t say Europe. We were the first in with significant numbers of weapons, provided logistical support, and have been providing targeting data and intel for the duration. Europe isn’t even close. They have beat us in meetings, bold pronouncements, and probably actual cash. The US bought them the necessary time to establish their industrial weapons base and develop their incredible drone capabilities. Oh, and we’re thousands of miles away. It’s Europe’s backyard. Shouldn’t they do much more? It’s so tiring to hear administration critics badmouth our efforts and cheerlead for deeper involvement. Nothing short of NATO and or US troops on the ground will satisfy critics like you. Nice try!

So why are not doing more for Ukraine?

@McFaul You seem to forget he was sandbagged and undermined his entire first term by the Washington political establishment and even members of his own administration. He never had a chance, constantly fighting sabotage and impeachment. In his second term he can actually govern.

If we’ve been at war with Iran for 47 years, why didn’t Trump attack in 2017 or 2018 or 2019 or 2020 or 2025? Genuine, not rhetorical question. What was the trigger in 2026?

I’m so confused. You keep circling back to longer term engagements and what sounds like national building. It seems a binary choice to you. Either never engage period, or you have to support the people in their aspirations for regime change, and commit to a messy process that inevitably leads to troops on the ground. The Iranian people rose up in January and got crushed. Now they have another chance. They either seize it or they don’t. It’s up to them. It will be bloody, but it’s probably now or never. Even if we went in it would be bloody. I support the administration’s middle ground. Destroy Iran’s military capabilities to the point of impotence, wipe out the current leadership, and hold the threat of devastating infrastructure (read oil production) strikes over any emerging government. Just about anything is better than the last 40 plus years of dithering and enduring Iran’s constant troublemaking in the region.

What? This statement of goals contradicts completely what Trump said over the weekend twice about the need for revolution -- for Iranians to rise up and take control of the country. Yet again, the Trump team seems to be abandoning the Iranian people (just like they did in Venezuela).

@McFaul And the whole thing was a disaster. So all the front running was complete bullshit and lies. So many people are still trying to justify their support for the Iraq fiasco. Sorry, you don’t get a pass for stupidity because Bush followed accepted protocols.

Bush convinced the Senate of the need to go to war. We had a big debate. And then an overwhelming majority voted in favor of war. Trump did not. 3/

On the comparison between Bush's war against Iraq in 2003 and Trump's war against Iran this week, there are some important differences. THREAD 1/

@ChrisMurphyCT If you’re right you don’t have to worry about the midterms. I guess it doesn’t matter the issues aren’t even related.

The costs of this Iran war debacle will likely be more than the cost of extending the ACA health insurance subsidies. If you asked Americans, which do you want: another war in the Middle East or lower health care costs at home, is the margin 90 to 10? 95 to 5?