Bowen Hosking

The market is absolutely mental right now. Yesterday, the AI trade had run out of steam. Memory stocks were getting smoked, leverage was unwinding, and sentiment had completely flipped. Today, the same names are ripping higher. SanDisk +26%, Micron +18%, AMD +13%... Good luck out there.

@bowtiedstocks $SDF scares me as an arb play

A few current ASX merger arbs in play or close to being in play: $NOU.AX Noumi Limited $SDF.AX Steadfast Group $LLM.AX Loyal Metals $OFX.AX OFX Group $ALX.AX Atlas Arteria Feel free to add to this if you know of others 👍

@ryu_tay I’ve seen this story too many times, you’d think if the board thought the stock was wildly undervalued they’d be buying up shares..

@bowenhosking haha, good for me

$EOL board unanimously rejects the $17/share bid, saying it does not reflect Energy One’s position as one of the worlds leading energy trading software and service suppliers. Hmmm.

@ryu_tay Will get a bid for the first half hour

Hopefully ATECH get some bids today 🤞 * MSFT popping 9% after results * EOL catching a 50% premium bid * So far hasn't had any bombed out results

@ryu_tay Think I’ll be content with $17 haha

@bowenhosking i been reducing all the way down sadly... sigh hopefully the board rejects the bid again lol

Energy One $EOL has reportedly received a $17/share takeover offer from Norwegian business Volue, valuing the company at $565m. Will be sad to see such a quality compounder delist this early in its growth cycle, but tough to say no to the 57% premium. (Held)

@ryu_tay You and me both.. my highest conviction upgrade candidate this month.

@bowenhosking fakk, i almost added yesterday....

@ryu_tay Street talk

@bowenhosking For real?? source??

@JohnWickPencil @ryu_tay Or, maybe it just got too expensive and caught up in the AI trade, which has unwound and brought the stock back to a fair value..

@ryu_tay @bowenhosking it'll likely bounce tomorrow, retest previous support during the distribution, then head lower. malicious hedge funds aren't gonna take a stock up after distribution, the whole point is to create tons of bagholders, manipulate stock down, then accumulate for another pump.

Cannot believe indices so green and bullish yet my portfolio is in red. I think i need to setup my own inverse etf 😂

@ryu_tay @JohnWickPencil Funnily enough it probably has some valuation support below $7. Don’t think it goes much lower.

@JohnWickPencil @bowenhosking have cut out on sks - the highest beta, but still keeping ipg and little sxe

@ryu_tay 😂 was waiting for this from you

Today's erection lasted.... 20 mins, that's it 😂

Today's $WEB update implies an interesting asymmetry. Management now expects 1H27 TTV margins of 6.7%, above the FY27 guidance of >6.5% provided in May. Either 2H margins moderate meaningfully, or current FY27 guidance is conservative. Given management highlighted a third consecutive half of margin expansion and a new buyback, I think it’s the latter.

@ryu_tay Yields weren’t a function of one man’s decision making in 2022.. this last 18 months under Trump has been insanely hard.

@bowenhosking Yeah, same old 2022 except it’s a lot lot harder

Our tech index back to June low, this constant volatility is just insane. 😮‍💨

@ryu_tay Felt like Black Friday today

Black Monday incoming?

@OwenRask Couldn’t agree more mate.

Since day 1 of my career I’ve said it’s extremely risky to add anything extra to Super (other than your extra insurance costs). Yes, tax wise Super makes sense… right now. But it’s also *potentially* the biggest tax trap of the next 30 years. It’s blindingly obvious to people who study Australian economics and have a basic understanding of political incentives. The further you are from retirement, the riskier this decision is. You’re trusting a government to make personal finance decisions that you cannot reverse. Yes, it’s your (somewhat) money. But you can only realise full control of Super once you retire. Over 45, I’d be confident to be Super-maxxing. Under that, mandatory contributions + a little extra for insurance (if required) is fine for me. This is not personalise financial advice, it’s general nature. So speak to your financial adviser before you act on tweets - especially with Super and insurance! Bottom line: Super is a good tool for the majority of Aussies who don’t understand investing (it’s not a scam!) but it is right in the crosshairs of a Government balance sheet that is becoming increasingly under-funded when Australian politicians have become very socialist in their decision making. “One big honey pot for everyone’s benefit”. Like taxing the rich, it’s an easy policy to push on unsuspecting Aussies who don’t understand it… unfortunately.

At first read, $IBM’s result appeared inherently negative for software, however after digging deeper, its reinforced one thing for me. The best software businesses don't just automate workflows—they own a mission-critical position within their customers' operations. As technology evolves, that's the distinction that will matter most. We remain positive on businesses such as $PME, $360, $REA, $CAR, $XRO.

Another contract win for $SKS. A $28m early works package for the MEL2 hyperscale data centre reinforces what we've been saying: successful project delivery is translating into repeat business and increasingly larger contracts. Order book now starts FY27 at $312m, while the tender pipeline has expanded to $1.25bn, with data centres accounting for over $1bn. (Held)