brad plumer

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brad plumer

brad plumer

@bradplumer

Reporter at @nytclimate. email: [email protected] signal: bradplumer.54

Washington, DC Katılım Temmuz 2008
1.8K Takip Edilen38.6K Takipçiler
brad plumer
brad plumer@bradplumer·
@atrembath because of timelines to develop projects, my understanding is that most of the projects coming online this year were permitted pre-Trump. So if you're trying to argue that permitting barriers are fake (?) you might need another year or two to see that in deployments
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Alex Trembath
Alex Trembath@atrembath·
Senate Democrats should understand that Trump's "renewables blockade" is not actually stopping renewables and is therefore not a good reason to boycott permitting reform negotiations.
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Alex Trembath
Alex Trembath@atrembath·
It’s a new year but I’m still tapping my sign.
Alex Trembath tweet media
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Alex Trembath
Alex Trembath@atrembath·
We’re excited to announce that in January, @TheBTI founder @TedNordhaus will become President and I’ll become Executive Director. It’s an honor I couldn’t have imagined when I started working here in 2011. Today it’s the only job I can imagine wanting.
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brad plumer
brad plumer@bradplumer·
@DByers21 agree, and few are as transparent as IEA about policy assumptions. guess we'll see in the next WEO when they do CPS and STEPS and we can see how big a difference it makes. (i do think there's a case that CPS is its own form of wishcasting, but agree it's more straightforward.)
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Dan Byers
Dan Byers@DByers21·
@bradplumer Thanks Brad, and fair on the quotes, esp "consensus" (outlier was in article but in different context). Agree would be great to tease out economic growth vs policy differences. Part of frustration here is that we are spoiled by EIA, which always does high/low econ side cases.
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Dan Byers
Dan Byers@DByers21·
Slow day in August so posting a #RantThread on this misleading @NYTimes story claiming the Trump Admin has a problem with energy “forecasts” that oil demand will soon peak. Spoiler: semantics matter and are at the heart of the spin on this debate. nytimes.com/2025/08/18/cli…
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brad plumer
brad plumer@bradplumer·
@DByers21 fair points, though we don't say what you put in quotes. pros and cons to current policy vs stated policy. one thing i wonder is how much of the difference in IEA STEPS vs OPEC is due to using current policy vs OPEC simply projecting much higher GDP/capita.
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Dan Byers
Dan Byers@DByers21·
BUT it’s wrong to do what the NYT article does and pretend that they are the same approach resulting in different outcomes, and that reference scenarios are somehow “outliers” to “consensus” wishcasting.
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brad plumer
brad plumer@bradplumer·
@NiyerEnergy that is super interesting—iirc there are quite a few utilities/regulators out there who have said let's focus on getting to ~80% and worry about the rest when we get there
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Dashboard American
Dashboard American@NiyerEnergy·
@bradplumer If you require the model to do an "incremental walk" where its not allowed to go backwards, you get higher prices and less clean firm. Maybe a point in the direction of planning. However, this 85%+
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Dashboard American
Dashboard American@NiyerEnergy·
I have some cool results from my modeling. Introducing "optimization sweeps" - running from 0% clean to 100% clean (hourly ofc) optimal cost with a subset of clean energy resources! Starting with: wind/solar/battery/gas/nuclear vs no wind:
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brad plumer
brad plumer@bradplumer·
@NiyerEnergy in the solar/wind/clean firm scenario what's the rough contribution of each? ie how big a role does clean firm play in the gen mix? (or is that not how it works)
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Dashboard American
Dashboard American@NiyerEnergy·
This is another run, a bit more expensive inputs. The orange line is no clean firm. You can see things stay bundled til around 40%, then divergence hits hard. Without clean firm, costs start escalating!
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Timothy B. Lee
Timothy B. Lee@binarybits·
The Biden Administration should have done this stuff but they were too beholden to environmentalist NIMBYs. Republicans don't care what those guys think.
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Timothy B. Lee
Timothy B. Lee@binarybits·
The AI Action Plan has a bunch of ideas for streamlining upgrades to the electric grid. It's going to be ironic (but good) if Trump implements the reforms necessary to electrify the economy and solve climate change while officially not caring about climate change.
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brad plumer
brad plumer@bradplumer·
@RyanAlimento @atrembath ah ok. I just don’t get how the final House bill can have a shorter window/faster phaseout for all of wind/solar/batteries/geothermal AND nuclear and still lead to more spending. But I’ll read more closely
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Ryan Alimento
Ryan Alimento@RyanAlimento·
@bradplumer @atrembath Sorry, the passed W&M version would SAVE $17BN and $1BN for PTC/ITC compared to the initial W&M bill, not be more expensive. So PTC+ITC is ~$200BN for the passed W&M version compared to SFC's $130BN
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brad plumer
brad plumer@bradplumer·
@RyanAlimento @atrembath that is surprising to me. thought everyone agreed that final house version is waaaay more restrictive on solar/wind/batteries than SFC and I assume those three drive most of the spending. but maybe that misses something
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Ryan Alimento
Ryan Alimento@RyanAlimento·
@bradplumer @atrembath "House Version" is the initial W&M proposal. Passed version sees ~$17B more PTC spending and ~$1B more ITC spending than initial version shown here.
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brad plumer
brad plumer@bradplumer·
@atrembath are you comparing SFC draft with the initial House Ways and Means bill or the version that ultimately passed? (agree if it's the former, not the latter)
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brad plumer
brad plumer@bradplumer·
@ppavnr would there be any significant budgetary savings from doing this? (you probably induce somewhat fewer wind/solar projects on net but the ones that do get built are potentially more expensive, depending on the battery requirements)
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brad plumer
brad plumer@bradplumer·
@atrembath is this a metaphor for the miracle of time-saving technologies or was he saying his kids secretly tossed books into the machine when no one was looking?
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Alex Trembath
Alex Trembath@atrembath·
“This is the magic: you load the laundry, and what do you get out of the machine? You get books out of the machines, children's books.” - Hans Rosling
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brad plumer
brad plumer@bradplumer·
More detail here on why this is a potentially pretty significant tweak for new nuclear projects. (Though not as much of a boost as the original IRA, which would keep tax credits for new reactors until at least 2032—and probably longer.) x.com/Dr_A_Stein/sta…
Adam Stein@Dr_A_Stein

The manager's amendment to the reconciliation bill keeps the tax credits for advanced nuclear and expanding existing plants if construction starts by the end of 2028. A lot of projects could meet this deadline if they apply to the NRC soon and seek a LWA, or buy long lead items

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brad plumer
brad plumer@bradplumer·
@Dr_A_Stein oh interesting thank you. will have to read the IRS guidance more closely.
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Adam Stein
Adam Stein@Dr_A_Stein·
@bradplumer This is actually useful for nuclear. A lot of projects could meet this deadline, not just the 3 that have applied to the NRC already. A project can ask for a limited work authorization to start construction early, or buy long lead items to qualify. x.com/Dr_A_Stein/sta…
Adam Stein@Dr_A_Stein

The manager's amendment to the reconciliation bill keeps the tax credits for advanced nuclear and expanding existing plants if construction starts by the end of 2028. A lot of projects could meet this deadline if they apply to the NRC soon and seek a LWA, or buy long lead items

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brad plumer
brad plumer@bradplumer·
@FacemireJon agreed that's my guess. maybe oklo or kairos can squeak in there? or interest in nuscale picks up.
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brad plumer
brad plumer@bradplumer·
Oh wait, sorry. The full tech-neutral clean electricity credits will only apply to plants that are "in service" by 2028, which is a major restriction — this is a MUCH faster phase out than it first looked.
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brad plumer
brad plumer@bradplumer·
Looking at IRA: —phase down of tech-neutral clean electricity credits after 2028, to zero by 2031 —termination of EV tax credits after end 2026 —termination of hydrogen tax credits after end 2025 —new restrictions on foreign entity of concern for domestic manufacturing credits
Laura Weiss@LauraEWeiss16

BREAKING NEWS: House Republicans are out with their tax bill extending the 2017 tax cuts, granting Trump’s campaign priorities & more UPDATED TIME - Markup kicks off 2:30 p.m. tomorrow The bill is 389 pages !! READ IT HERE: punchbowl.news/smitmo_017_xml/

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Keşfet

@atrembath @heatmap_news @emilypont @TheBTI @TedNordhaus @DByers21 @NYTimes @NiyerEnergy