Brad Thomas

I love sending books to loyal customers...

Elevated mortgage rates keep many would‑be buyers in the rental pool, sustaining strong occupancy (>95%) and rent roll growth. The supply of affordable SF homes remains tight, giving institutional landlords substantial pricing power. $INVH and $AMH could see NAV per share trend toward the upper‑$30s to low‑$40s range over the next 12 months.

@bradthomas Too many ifs.

Buying Boardwalk at Baltic Avenue Prices In Monday's edition of the Wide Moat Letter and on TikTok (REIT Rap), I will be weighing in on the Single Family Rental (SFR) REITs. $INVH and $AMH are trading at very wide discounts, which could result in outsized gains if policy risk gets walked back (or diluted or delayed. Fundamentals are still solid, and even in this slower environment, cash flows remain stable. My takeaway: This is NOT a fundamental story... It's a political multiple-compression story. If policy risk fades, these stock prices will reset. I plan to interview NAREIT on Monday, as well as other analysts and investors. Stay tuned....

Senator Elizabeth Warren has issued formal inquiries to $INVH, $AMH, and others as part of a growing bipartisan push to address the "housing crisis" and Wall Street's role in it. Concerns that large investors are using massive capital and all-cash offers to outbid families, effectively "snatching up" homes that would otherwise be for sale. The Senate recently passed the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, a first step toward banning large institutional investors from buying single-family homes. Allegations that institutional ownership in multifamily and manufactured housing has led to rent hikes - some as high as 133% in certain areas. The Senate is demanding (by April 8, 2026) exactly how many single-family, multifamily, and manufactured units they own. The total number of eviction proceedings filed vs. completed since 2020. A full log of resident complaints and maintenance requests. Any communications with the administration regarding housing sector regulations. I will be writing a detailed letter to President Trump this weekend, which I will publish on X and Wide Moat Research.

Life satisfaction isn’t a straight line. Research shows happiness often dips in midlife then rebounds — a “U‑curve.” The lesson: your 40s may feel heavy, but the data say the best emotional years often come after 50. Perspective compounds like interest.

@DanielHerrold Brad AI Thomas, VIP at CRE in the REIT sector (I bet u annoy me too)

Things that annoy me... 1. AI 2. Why does every person in CRE have a different title? I've never seen such a mix of titles across an industry. That's it.

The NYSE honors the life and legacy of David Simon, the visionary Chairman, CEO and President of Simon Property Group, a global leader in retail real estate. (NYSE: $SPG)

@MediaKing Hmmmm...here's my DREAM INBOX 😍

😍😍 MY DREAM INBOX 😍😍

I was a real estate developer for more than two decades, and during that time, I built stores from the ground up for chains including $DG, $WMT, $AAP, and $SHW. When the GFC hit, I was forced to pivot from "real property" to "intellectual property", so I began writing on Seeking Alpha (over 120k followers) and Forbes (editor for a decade). For over 15 years, I have learned to perfect my craft by writing high-value research aimed at educating and informing investors about how to invest in "wide moat" stocks trading at a margin of safety. I hand-picked my team to launch an independent research business covering a variety of sectors, including REITs, BDCs, Utilities, Asset Managers, Banks, Technology, and Dividend Aristocrats. I've written four books and frequently guest lecture at NYU, Penn State, Cornell, UNC, Georgetown, and, more recently, Coastal Carolina (picture below). One of the secrets to our success is our network, which includes management meetings, other analysts, and high-net-worth investors. Our "moat" at Wide Moat Research can be easily summed up as follows: Experience + Disciplined Research + Elite Network. We embrace AI at Wide Moat for faster screening, real-time data analysis, and deep-dive research. AI handles the grunt work. Our team delivers the judgment. That's the WIDE MOAT edge.

@DanielTaylor_90 Thank you!!!!

@bradthomas I’ll check it out, thanks! Not sure why I was not subscribed to your YouTube channel before BUT now I am. Same to you my friend!

At first glance, farmland seems like a simple investment thesis… You own productive land. You lease it to farmers. You collect rent that’s directly (or indirectly) tied to food production. It sounds simple. That’s because it is simple. But that doesn’t mean it’s always easy. Productive farmland is dependent on a global support system of technology, natural resources, and production. As such, it can and is negatively affected whenever there are: War-driven energy shocks Fragile agricultural economics Private credit issues… All of which we’re unfortunately seeing today. The conflict with Iran, for instance, may or may not be winding down. We just don’t know yet. But it has already triggered one of the largest energy disruptions in modern history. Agriculture relies on oil products for fueling farm equipment and transporting foodstuffs to manufacturers, storage facilities, and grocery stores. Plus, gas is a key ingredient in nitrogen fertilizer, which has nearly doubled in price in some cases. In short, every stage of the food creation process has been affected. This matters to the farmland real estate investment trusts (“REITs”) I follow" $FPI and $LAND To learn more about Farming REITs or to become a virtual farmland landlord, check out my book, REITs for Dummies (available on Amazon)

@sprucepointcap @sprucepointcap Thanks for raising your hand!

I've waited a long long time for this short report. A company I encountered in my early 20s that I've been following for a quarter century, the time is now to raise my hand. The report will be available live at sprucepointcap.com tomorrow, Wed March 25th.

@DanielTaylor_90 Thank you! I just published an article at Wide Moat in which I explained I prefer $FPI over $LAND. To learn more, check out widemoatresearch.com/wide-moat-dail… All the best!

@bradthomas The book is A+, purchased shortly after it was released and well worth a read. It’s been awhile since I saw what you have been investing in Brad. Are you in either one of these two listed above?

@realEstateTrent smart friend ;)

Friend invested in a data center deal around a year ago and is about to exit at a 9x

@KatieMiller @NYSE @katiemillerpod Enjoyed the interview @KatieMiller

Lynn Martin @NYSE President on capitalism, Trump, the future of AI. 6PM | @katiemillerpod

@Mr_Neutral_Man $REG

Reuters reported that $WSR has hired of Bank of America to run full process $BX and $TPG have expressed interest in buying Whitestone Notably Blackstone has bought $ROIC and $ALEX (2 former portfolio companies of our) in the last 15 months

@MediaKing @seandsweeney That's called SWAN - sleep well at night - investing!

@seandsweeney If someone hands me $34 million, I’m dollar cost averaging into a 60/40 stock bond portfolio over 36 months and sleeping easy.

Good example of why you should never take financial advice from a random on X.

Teaching REITs at Coastal Carolina University. I'll publish the lecture this week at Wide Moat Research.

@richroll Thanks for posting this inspirational message @richroll

On May 8, 2025 I underwent spinal fusion surgery, a 6 hour procedure in which I was filleted from front to back. First, my abdomen was opened up so that the surgeon could scrape out the disc between L5 and S1, replacing it with a perforated cage containing bone grafting material that was screwed into my vertebra. Then I was flipped over and opened up on my back so that my surgeon could screw vertical rods into L5 and S1 to secure my spine position to ensure the fusion sets properly. The procedure was successful, correcting 15 years of lower back debilitation due to severe Spondylolisthesis. However, the recovery process demanded I endure far more than I bargained for, debilitating me in ways I thought might handicap me permanently. For the first 3 months I could barely move. For the first six months my activity was limited to walking only. Pain was constant. At nine months I was still in so much discomfort, still so limited in my range of motion, still too unstable to do anything to elevate my heart rate. My weight ballooned. My muscles atrophied. My mood plummeted. And I was becoming resigned to the idea that my athletic identity (let alone performing extreme feats of ultra-endurance) was a thing of the past, a memory well behind me. But very slowly after that I began to turn a corner. At ten months, I finally felt stable enough to resume a very modest non-spine compressing return to fitness exercise regimen. Zone 1 indoor cycling, gentle core work, extremely low weight / high rep resistance training. Proceeding on a ‘less is more’ mandate in late November (which demands discipline for someone like myself prone to taking everything to the extreme, I just showed up every single morning to do what I could, and stop well before doing more than I should. Today I am down 35 pounds from November (207 to 171) including a body fat reduction from 20% to 11%. More importantly, I am beginning to feel like myself again. Grateful and hopeful. I still have a long way to go—it takes 12-18 months for the fusion to fully set. My surgeon was not optimistic that I will be able to run again. Time will tell of course, but I’m confident that provided I continue to proceed patiently that I have a future in which running can become part of my new reality. Towards that end I have a goal—which is to celebrate my 60th birthday this Fall by participating in the NYC Marathon. But here’s the thing. I’m not trying to return to who I once was. I’ve leaned into the stillness this experience has demanded of me to become someone new and better. I am posting this story not for external validation but rather to say that change is always possible. And the way to do it is the same way I have navigated every one of my many life transformations, from alcoholism to sobriety, from sedentary to middle aged ultra endurance athlete, and from a corporate lawyer career to becoming an author and podcaster: getting sober and staying sober: by taking contrary action consistently and religiously—one day at a time. As Chris Paul said on my podcast, “keep stacking days.” And remember, every obstacle life presents you is simply an opportunity custom-designed for your growth and evolution.

@kenmcelroy "its also the single best buying opportunity since 2010-2012" $MAA $CPT $AVB will scale to new heights 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀

I've been in real estate for over 35 years. I've survived the S&L crisis. The dot-com bust. 2008. The pandemic. And I have never, not once in three and a half decades, seen what I'm seeing right now in the rental market. Downtown Phoenix: four months free rent on a 12-month lease. Let that register. A landlord is giving away a third of the year for free just to get someone in the door. West side of Phoenix near the Cardinals stadium? Two to three months free. You can call it a "concession." You can call it a "move-in special." You can package it however you want. But at the end of the day, this is a massive rent reduction. And it's happening because the market is drowning in supply with no way to absorb it. Here's what happened. When interest rates were low, everybody started building. Home builders. Condo developers. Multifamily guys. Office projects. Shovels went in the ground everywhere. Then rates spiked. But here's the thing about construction, once you break ground, you have to finish. You can't stop a two-year build halfway through because the Fed raised rates. So every project that started in 2021 and 2022 kept going. Almost 500,000 new apartment units hit the market in 2023, 2024, and 2025. All at the same time. All are competing for the same renters. More choices for renters means lower rents. It's that simple. Now layer the expense side on top of that. Our insurance across the portfolio went from $3 million to $4 million. One year. A million-dollar increase. And we're not in Florida or California where some operators can't even GET insurance Rents don't go up by a million dollars. That reset came straight out of our cash flow. Property taxes? Cities that gutted themselves with bad policies, defunding police, letting crime run wild, watching their downtowns empty out, they're not cutting their budgets. They're raising property taxes to backfill the hole. We're seeing it everywhere. Utilities are up. Payroll is up. The cost of a refrigerator is up. A five-gallon bucket of paint is up. Getting someone to come fix a gate or patch a roof? Up. So let me paint the picture for you: Revenue is flat or going backwards. In some markets, you're literally giving away months of free rent. Expenses are climbing 3, 4, 5% every year with no signs of slowing down. And if you're one of the operators sitting on floating rate debt that's maturing? Your mortgage payment just doubled. It's a perfect storm. I sat my entire company down, all 400 people, at the end of last year and said: "I don't expect any rent growth in 2026. Possibly not in 2027 either. Strap in." its also the single best buying opportunity since 2010-2012  That's why I put together a FREE one-day virtual event with the sharpest minds I know. you can sign up here  web.thelimitlessexpo.com/home-page

Last week, $DOC raised $840 mm via an IPO for a new pure-play, externally managed CCRC/senior housing REIT, with shares debuting +18% higher. $JAN will have no leverage to start and look to acquire SHOP assets. (Wide Moat is adding $JAN to the covereage spectrum)