Breno Brito

"A scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it." --Max Planck

@LuisPujolmdz @MetodoMoreira Ignis fatus is another thing completely

@MetodoMoreira En el campo argentino es común, los gauchos le llamaban la luz mala. Se creia que eran animas en pena.

Essa câmera registrou um dos fenômenos mais impressionantes da natureza Imagina quantas pessoas foram queimadas na idade média depois de contarem pra alguém que viram isso

@petergyang I got this in sol, terra and luna

Seeing this quite often today. My wild guess is 90%+ of people are using GPT 5.6 Sol and <10% are using Terra or Luna.

I'm perplexed at why people who I know are smarter than me, including the authors, buy the epistemic strategy used in the AI 2040 scenario, in which, tl;dr, the famous METR time horizon plot predicts eschatological doom. I don't believe the authors have sufficiently grappled with why the radiologists and programmers still have their jobs, and why baristas haven't been replaced by automatic espresso machines Or even why we haven't seen more small-scale scheming / reward hacking / misalignment damages due to the use of coding agents across Big Tech, in which we've already granted such agents significant autonomy. I think if these gaps were more deeply considered they'd be making a more nuanced and less extreme argument. In the meantime I'm concerned that resources, advocacy and governance are being influenced by their conceptual model.

Jevons Paradox is about to hit AI harder than almost any industry we have seen before. People once thought faster internet would simply let us load the same websites more quickly. That was not even close to what happened. Faster connections created video streaming, cloud software, online gaming, video calls, social media, and entire businesses that could not exist on slow internet. Every increase in speed created new reasons to use more bandwidth. AI will work the same way. Today, we mostly use models for chat, coding, search, writing, and a few business workflows. But once intelligence becomes cheap enough, fast enough, and reliable enough, it will be built into every process that involves a decision. The biggest AI workloads probably do not exist yet. They are waiting for the cost of intelligence to fall. It will create millions of new tasks that are currently too slow, too expensive, or simply impossible.

It’s important to have a futures market with any contentious fork in Bitcoin. Why? Because the party forking gets what is called the “free call option”. They can tweet, do long monologue videos about how their fork will win, and how no one will oppose them. They can use company resources to legally pressure miners, post populist rhetoric disassociated from reality (pľēb şľőp) and then… wait. The activation comes, and they are delta neutral on a fork. If… No fork happens - they have their bitcoin. The fork is successful - they have their bitcoin. A chain split happens - they get Bitcoin on each side of the fork See the problem? There is an opportunity cost of time and resources coordinating the fork (maybe reputation too), but that’s it! They can antagonize the network at no cost of bitcoin. It’s worse than that though, everyone who told them they were wrong can’t even dump their hostile fork if they fail to even launch it. The actual party who has to put up material cost in a fork are the miners. Since they cannot mine on both chains at once, they must choose where to secure coins. The only publicly stated mining pool position on this fork is f2 pool opposing it (~12% of hash rate). My proposed on chain futures market requires no ecosystem coordination. The Bitcoin is settled automatically, and in the event there is a chain split, each side gets 2 BTC (each party gets the bitcoin they think will “win”). A futures market forces actors among the Bitcoin network with different opinions to put skin in the game, price the risk, and act. It presents an opportunity to lock up Bitcoin for a time, and profit as a rational actor if they have conviction in their position. The market will do this independent of your wishes otherwise. Via prediction markets, on chain, or exchange future markets (any exchange could get fees for swapping the fork to buy more bitcoin). We saw futures markets with the last contentious fork in 2017 when bitfinex listed futures. If no market forms at all, it shows there are not two sides to the market, I’m here as one side of the market, so we know the side that is a no show. This kind of weakness is death for a fork. If the side forking is unwilling to burn the ships, and put their bitcoin at risk, they are of low conviction and the fork will fail. There will be a myriad of reasons as to why people who are so vocal and certain that BIP 444 will activate, won’t bet. To be clear, it’s cope. Their optimal positioning as it relates to the opportunity to wager is: 1. Ignore 2. Public consider the bet, but to never commit. 3. Hand wave any reason to say the market is either immoral, illegitimate, impractical etc. Any of these maintains the illusion of strength when they are actually weak. A requirement in fork psychology is to appear as if it’s a certainty, because forking is a game of chicken with the network. A 1:1 ratio implies a 50% chance likelihood to succeed, far lower than they’d have you believe success is. Additionally, to counter offer with a differnt ratio/odds gives up the game. They blink, show their hand and signal that they think 50% is way to high of a likelihood, and all the bluster comes tumbling down. I’ve given feedback on the GitHub already from a technical perspective my objections to the BIP, they went largely unaddressed before the GitHub was locked. Notice who will continue engaging in this content without taking the bet, they are seeking attention because they must consume the discourse as their shred of a hope to win. Surely, there is already rumbling of restricting how 444 works, already a weakening of their position. People will say I am wrong, but won’t take the wager. Makes you think right? I’ll give 10% of my potential winnings from the contract if you refer a BIP444 proponent into actually making the bet with me. So whenever you see someone talking about the certainty of this fork activating, link them to this post so we can both make some bitcoin!

@DefenderOfBasic I've seen so many counter examples...

If you're new here: Defender's thing is consensus. Even people who absolutely hate each other can come to an agreement on things like "we both agree you are actively stabbing me right now"

Livre mercado funciona

@stevekrouse But it's a pretty good starting point to then start iterating :)

the problem with "spec driven development" is that most software can't be spec'd up front software is a creative act, where you figure out what you're building as you build it you need to get your hands dirty in the details, and react to incremental versions it's telling that all the examples of spec driven development are sorting a list or porting thoroughly tested code (like a js runtime or browser engine), which are the exception, not the rule. the vast majority of software doesn't have a spec – or if it does, the spec was created *after*

It might seem hypocritical that Variety praises Moana for respecting Polynesian culture while attacking you for wanting Nolan’s Odyssey to respect Greek culture. But there’s actually a consistent moral through-line: They just hate White people.

@DefenderOfBasic Not larping? Your LinkedIn bubble is strange.

Ok so LinkedIn is actually like twitter except the people there are not larping

Sim, mas é pq você não entende a diferença de renda e patrimônio. Você tendo PJ, você coloca seu pró-labore de 1 salário mínimo para não pagar imposto de renda. Mas você pega mais dinheiro como dividendos (que era isento até há pouco) e tudo isso vira seu patrimônio no final. Participação na empresa também é patrimônio. Então deixar o dinheiro na empresa não adianta para esconder, se a empresa é sua.

@RafaelPaschoare Tenho dificuldades em confiar nesse estudo. Empresários e profissionais liberais constroem patrimônio no CNPJ. Imóveis em holding e o valor da cota social muito baixo, não se coaduna com os valores dos imóveis. Já ouvi de grande empresário: "declaro só 1 salário minimo no CPF"

Se tem filhos, leiam isso: Pensando no aspecto econômico, muitos pais incentivam seus filhos a se tornarem jogadores de futebol. Outros, médicos. Meus pais me orientaram a eu ser, pasmem!!, professor! Se o objetivo for econômico, as estatísticas indicam outro caminho. O Prof. Rafael Viegas da FGV, doutor em Gestão e Políticas Públicas, divulgou neste mês estudo com base no Perfil do Declarante da Receita Federal. Vejam matéria completa no @estadao O pesquisador comparou Patrimônio declarado na Receita com a ocupação do camarada. Depois de ver a tabela abaixo: Com base nela e juntando outros dados nota-se que:

@hugofreitas_r O que tá faltando é as pessoas usarem mais as leis contra quem cria elas. Lawfare só contra a gente não dá.

Será que fazer “gaslighting” vai ser criminalizado pelo PL da Misoginia? Não era assim que as feministas chamavam quando alguém negava a memória de uma mulher e desmerecia como “circo” e “showzinho”? Tome mais cuidado com as leis que você escreve, Tábata: você pode ser a próxima

PEGA NA MENTIRA: Tábata jura que seria impensável seu PL da Misoginia ser usado contra piadas. @apropriajulia desmascara apontando que a própria Tábata já denunciou um humorista ao MP por piadas — acusando justamente de “machismo”. Tábata agora diz que nunca aconteceu.

@Rothmus even faster from art noveau

Maybe we can have an art deco renaissance if people splurge on material and craftsmanship and fix some building codes.

@keet_io Second one is amazing

Should we make Keet tees? 🍐👕 1️⃣ Stay Private — our Keet bird, unbothered, under all the eyes 👁️ 2️⃣ The shirt that knows nothing — even the logo is redacted Which one are you wearing? Vote below 👇

The idea of "AI employees" feels so short-sighted to me - both disrespectful to humans and a complete misunderstanding of what these tools can do and how to best put them to work You may as well start adding Excel spreadsheets to your org chart

@MW4Liberty I tell them "if you have nothing to hide, take your pants off, spread your butt cheeks, take a picture and post it online. Why are you hiding?"

We seal envelopes not because the letter contains a conspiracy, but because the contents belong exclusively to the sender and the receiver. The "nothing to hide" argument is pure corporate/state propaganda. Privacy isn't about hiding a crime; it's about deciding who gets access to your life. It’s a boundary of power, not a shield for guilt.

When I started learning AI in 2010, my first model was a model to detect instruments. It trained on my shitty Positivo laptop using Matlab. Since then, I dream that this could and would exist. Now it does. Unfortunately I didn't have the opportunities to continue working on this line of research, but I'm really glad someone did it as a FOSS project. I’m happy as if I had done it myself.

Good reminder: "We cannot have a society in which, if two people wish to communicate, the only way that can happen is if it's financed by a third person who wishes to manipulate them" - Jaron Lanier Full talk on how to remake the internet below 👇

@thsottiaux Honest question: A dev using codex for everything past months (email, writing, etc. and of course coding), is there any advantage for them to use ChatGPT work? Or is this just for non-devs starting on ChatGPT app?

Or a generational run. We will continue to make tweaks and we have a TON coming for developers. Meanwhile traffic yesterday sat at ~2X previous peak, team is scrambling to keep everything up and reliable. Time will tell, but I have conviction that attempting to build the one interface to AGI is worthwhile.