Bret Packard

@ericswalwell You are corrupt

I am suspending my campaign for Governor. To my family, staff, friends, and supporters, I am deeply sorry for mistakes in judgment I’ve made in my past. I will fight the serious, false allegations that have been made — but that’s my fight, not a campaign’s.

@RepJeffries @GavinNewsom lol Uh . No.

Governor @GavinNewsom has championed issues important to the African American community for decades. He is not a racist. Deranged far-right extremists are lying again and they know it. Pipe Down.

The real world doesn't care about how informed you are — it rewards positioning. Well, being informed may be interesting at cocktail parties — but completely inert when it comes to success and making money. You can read every book, listen to every podcast, and fill your head with facts until you're blue in the face. But if that knowledge doesn't build your resilience, sharpen your adaptability, or give you real upside exposure, it's just informational noise. I've seen “brilliant” people blow it because they “knew everything” — except how to position themselves to win. The winners? They're not the smartest in the room; they're the ones who put their time and energy where the odds tilt in their favor. And, that’s where the diamonds can be found — being positioned to profit when it matters.

The Preparedness Paradox. It's costing people big time. You relentlessly prepare for the last disaster—stockpile for that specific hurricane, reinforce for the flood that hit last time—and guess what? It doesn't happen. The storm veers off, the danger passes. Suddenly everyone's smug: "See? All that worry was nonsense. We dodged a bullet that never existed." Wrong. Dead wrong. You avoided disaster precisely because you prepared. But now you drop your guard, thinking threats are predictable like clockwork. Newsflash: Mother Nature and the marketplace doesn’t repeat the same script. The next risk is different—cyber attack, supply chain collapse, new pandemic variant. You pat yourself on the back for yesterday's win and get blindsided tomorrow. Preparation isn't insurance against the exact past event; it's armor for whatever comes next. Stay vigilant, or pay the price. Money loves the prepared mind. Don't be the fool who thinks he's safe because nothing bad happened... yet.

Today is the first day of the second half of my life. Maybe —— maybe not. Having said that, if I go earlier, so be it - at least there will be no regrets. I don’t know what will happen — that’s the biggest lesson from my life — so far…

Listen, if something sounds too good to be true—like this magical free lunch called alcohol dropping your blood pressure and blood sugar—it probably is. There's no free beer in life, folks. I learned that the hard way running teams around the world; we'd say it over a cold one, but the truth doesn't change with the buzz. Sure, booze gives you that short-term dip—looks like a win on the numbers for a few hours. Feels great, right? But that's the trap. It's temporary, it's dose-dependent, and the rebound hits you like a bad investment the next day: blood pressure spikes back up, sugar control goes haywire, dehydration kicks in, and your whole metabolic game falls apart. Long-term? Heavy drinking jacks up your blood pressure and wrecks your metabolic control—plain and simple. It's a loser. For your heart and blood sugar health, the smartest play is moderation or straight abstinence. Everybody's different, this isn't medical advice, but come on—you get the point. The bottom line is don't chase the illusion; protect your capital. Your body’s the best asset you've got—don't blow it on a bad deal.

You sit there whining about every little risk you can spot—market dips, competition, regulations—like that's the real danger. Wrong. Dead wrong. Your biggest risk is the one your low standards can't even detect. It's the silent killer: mediocre decisions, lazy due diligence, accepting "good enough" when greatness is on the table. Your blind spots are bleeding you dry while you obsess over shadows. I take risks every day—that's how I make money—but they're “calculated.” I raise my standards sky-high so the invisible threats get exposed early. You? You're playing checkers with your future, missing the chess moves that bankrupt you quietly. Stop complaining about obvious risks. Raise your game, sharpen your criteria, and hunt down the dangers you can't see yet. Or, you can choose NOT to —— and stay bitter.

A black swan event is a rare, unpredictable occurrence with massive impact and retrospective explainability, as coined by Nassim Taleb. Black swans define history due to the long tail risk(s) and disorder of their impact. COVID-19 is the most recent example. GFC. 9-11. AFC. I didn’t know any of these were coming beforehand despite being surrounded by experts. Did you ? What about the next event ? Therein, the point.

Last week, some guy asked me what really fires me up about the work I do. Without even thinking, I hit him with the same cold, hard truth I tell myself every single morning: I feed that deep intellectual insecurity inside me like there’s no tomorrow. Look, nobody gets rich sitting around feeling comfortable because in this world, things happen — big things — out of the blue —— and we have no control over them. That little voice telling you you’re not smart enough, not quick enough, not good enough? I nurture it — because the second you think you’ve got it all figured out, you’re done —- dead in the water. So yeah, I embrace the insecurity. It’s not weakness—it’s my edge. It forces me to work harder, think sharper, and never settle. That’s how you win. And if you can’t handle that kind of pressure? Well, too bad. Go find something easier. Me? I’ll keep feeding the beast — it’s the only way I know how to stay relevant.

Here’s the truth nobody likes to hear: stability keeps the lights on, but it doesn’t make you rich. Stability is rent money. Stability is payroll. Stability is oxygen. Without it, you’re dead. Period. But growth? Growth lives in disorder. Growth comes from pressure, mistakes, and getting punched in the face by reality. Every real breakthrough I’ve ever seen came from discomfort—bad quarters, failed products, brutal feedback. Disorder forces you to adapt or die, and adaptation is where value is created. If all you want is safety, fine—build a stable little box and sit in it forever. But don’t confuse that with ambition. The winners build a stable core and then deliberately step into uncertainty with discipline. They experiment. They take calculated risks. They break things fast and fix them faster. Stability is the anchor. Disorder is the engine. You need both—or you’re either reckless — or irrelevant.

An uncut diamond embodies raw, untapped potential. It looks unremarkable and may even seem vulnerable to disorder. The cutting and polishing process involves intense stress — grinding, faceting, and pressure — which reveals its true beauty, durability, and value. Without this disorder the diamond remains hidden in mediocrity; the stressors transform it into something extraordinary. People or ideas often described as "rough diamonds" or "uncut gems" have hidden strength and brilliance that emerges through life's pressures: failures, challenges, criticism, or volatility. Overprotecting them (avoiding stress) keeps the potential locked away; exposing them to controlled disorder "cuts" them into something that shines brighter than before. Uncut is your tool to benefiting from the disorders that will hit.

One of the biggest blunders businesses and teams make is assuming what they don’t see doesn’t exist. It’s the sneaky sibling to confusing absence of evidence for evidence of absence. Just because you can’t spot a risk or opportunity right now doesn’t mean it’s not lurking, ready to bite you in the assets. Take September 11, 2001. Markets froze worldwide after the tragedy, and our customers in Japan couldn’t access their money for days. We didn’t assume the problem was imaginary. We jumped into action, rallying the team to contact every single client personally via phone and in our branches reassuring them their investments were secure. We partnered with one of our asset managers from Europe to design innovative products—and that quick pivot turned a crisis into loyalty - to the tune of $1 billon in sales, proving unseen threats are real, but so are unseen solutions. Don’t wait for proof; adapt and innovate.

Money doesn’t care about your checklist. You think you've got it all figured out—your perfect due diligence list, your risk thresholds, your non-negotiable standards. Cute. But the most expensive risk is the one your standards can't even see coming. Wanna know what really scares me? Not the latest audit report or superficial issues the risk “professionals” raise in a committee. It's the blind spots. I've seen brilliant entrepreneurs get wiped out not by obvious red flags, but by the stuff they never bothered to imagine. Markets don't grade on effort—they punish complacency. So stay paranoid. Question everything. Double your diligence. That lightning strike out of the blue that slips right past your fancy checklist because you were too busy patting yourself on the back for being "disciplined” will take you down unless you cover the blind spots.

Preparing for every specific risk out there is a fool's game. It's risky in itself—wastes time, burns cash, and locks you into yesterday's threats while the real ones blindside you. At inception, nearly all of my clients were obsessed over “every scenario,” (mainly due to the fear instilled by the risk, compliance and audit teams) only to get crushed by something these “experts” never imagined. The smart play? Prepare to adapt to the unknown. Build cash reserves, diversify revenue streams, stay lean, and keep your options wide open. That’s the sc*** you money mindset—when chaos hits, you pivot fast instead of panicking. Risk isn’t the enemy; rigidity is. Calculated risks build empires. Rigid plans bury them. Stop trying to predict the future — get ready to own whatever it throws at you.

@JuliaLaRoche @BillAckman Stay awesome Julia !!

I'm so excited to share episode 100 featuring @BillAckman! Really enjoyed this one. Watch the full conversation below.