
Bear Bullington
370 posts





@alex_stettler That would be crazy





becomes the world's richest man - then responsible for the roadmap that throws 10M's millions into poverty that bankrup the Government's safety net (after gutting it)... ya but @elonmusk is the smartest man in the world.... #HowToDestroyACountry101 #ButMarsWillSaveUs

My Position Sizing, a Guide: (position sizing = what % of your account you risk on a trade) I personally use a combination of conviction-based sizing and pyramiding, meaning I sized based on how strong my thesis is + add size as the trade works. Here's a loose version of my style, as it applies to a+ setups. To start, I have zero problem putting 35%+ of my account into a high conviction, thematic long idea in a strong market environment. So let's say we have one of those situations in front of us. I have a $100K account, and I am putting up $35K for this trade. Starter position is typically 10-25% of full position, with entry during a basing of price or a retest of prior breakout at key levels. Stoploss is a daily candle close below those predetermined levels, usually around <5% on commons...so essentially you're only risking 5% of the starter position (<2% total risk to acct). Next add is another 20-30% of position size, and again I'm *pyramiding*, so only adding as the trade proves me right (usually on higher lows). > breakouts holding > pullbacks bought > relative strength > thematic leader > key levels respected I'm adding on weakness within a strong uptrend on a leader. Next is the meaty add....typically increasing position 35-45% to position size, now I'm roughly at 80-90% of my full position. By this point: - the trend is solid/established - the market is confirming - stock is behaving I tack on the last 10% of the position on any flushes within the trend or shakeouts that hold structure. Full $35K position now. But you're probably thinking: 1) where does my stoploss move to? 2) when do I exit? Well as you are adding / increasing position sizing, you raise your stop to reduce risk. Simple example: - starter entry at $100, stop at $95 (risking 5%) - second add at $110 on a dip now instead of keeping stop at $95… you might move it up to: - $100 (breakeven on starter) - or higher depending on structure So now you’ve increased size, without increasing total risk. For exiting + scaling out, I usually take profit for a few reasons: > any abnormal extension from trend (ex: stock pops 15% on news) > if the catalyst has passed > thesis fundamentally changes > momentum starts to stall (in theme or mkt env) > I hit my price target or level ...else I stay in. I can go into this more in depth, but here are some youtube videos on pyramiding + similar strategies. - pyramiding by @theshortbear - position sizing @qullamaggie - scaling into positions @markminervini 💙Luc



What if inflation this year is closer to 10% than 2%? How will the Fed react to a "surprise" surge in inflation? If the Fed does the right thing and raises the Fed funds rate by several hundred basis points and resumes QT, the result will be a financial crisis worse than 2008.

can someone please tell me why gold is CRASHING ???



@colin_gladman Bulls are going to teach the bears a painful lesson




Throw away all your TA. It is really this simple... $SPY over $666, LONG $SPY under $666, SHORT I don't make the rules!

The only thing i don't like is the move in DXY, otherwise everything else is suggesting a rally today
