Bruce Hendrix

Three things to be mindful of: 1) DC-Swamp: Don't particularly believe any story or narrative, everyone has an agenda and direct truth is not part of that agenda. 2) Stock/Financial Market: More manipulated than most would want to believe, free market capitalism and price discovery is not the basis of today's marketplace. 3) Trading and Investing: Don't conflate the two. Work with what is happening, not what you want or believe should happen. Manage risk accordingly. Go outside, breathe fresh air, walk, exercise, eat healthy, let your loved ones know they are loved.

@DonMiami3 And, importantly, US10Y yield. Several more days = into the weekend for rinse and repeat. Preemptive defensive strikes likely to continue/ramp.

This is after they said hours 30+ times this weekend to manipulate fuel prices lower FWIW

@RudyHavenstein If Iran would simply say they will lower the toll charge by 700% and reduce uranium by 900% they would have a deal.

TRUMP: IRAN DEAL 95% COMPLETE, NOW WORKING ON THE REMAINING 95%

@Rory_Johnston At this point, even the bots and algos are exhausted from headline noise confusion. Cash was a good position for the extended noisy weekend. And, we still have more noise to come.

30 days ***AFTER*** a deal? Guys, we can't even land a deal, which over the weekend was supposed to be signed Sunday and include near-immediate Hormuz transit relief. Now the deal timeline continues to slip and the new Hormuz position is a month *after* whenever that manages to land? Bad, bad, bad.

@TreyYingst There was no deal. There is no deal. There are stall tactic games on both sides, there is no deal.

Details are still being discussed for the possible deal between the United States and Iran.

@iowahawkblog And the slush that will poor around post SpaceX IPO...

In 6 months Austin will be a radioactive wasteland after the Waymo-Zoox-Cybercab War

What fresh hell is this

The big news recently was that the Senate left early for Memorial Day without undertaking a necessary vote-a-rama to fund ICE and CBP due to concern over the so-called 1776 Fund. Taking a Republican priority hostage to advance a Democrat message is not a good strategy. 1/10

Yeah listen. Just as a matter of comms on Iran nuclear diplomacy. A lot of you are so young that in the mid-2010s your skulls still hadn't hardened and you weren't yet forming memories, so you think you're being original or clever when you stumble into the ideas below, which are actually lines Democrats mainstreamed a decade ago: * It's this deal or war. * Our unprecedented pressure succeeded in getting Iran to the negotiating table. * Are you on the side of our president or (Netanyahu/Israel/the Jews)? * You can't criticize the deal because you don't even know what's in it yet. * You can't criticize the deal because nothing's final until it's final.

@VinceCoglianese @EdMorrissey Hmm, or umm, or something something...there is no deal, wasn't a deal... x.com/i/status/20586…

Just briefed by a senior Trump admin official. I feel VERY good about where the Iran negotiations are going. TOPLINE: "NO DUST, NO DOLLARS" -- Iran doesn't get a dime unless they actually produce real results. Details: The Trump administration believes it is now just days away from a memorandum of understanding with the Iranian regime. It won't be signed today or tomorrow, the official says, but that's primarily because communication with Iranian leadership moves very slowly. It takes "their system five or six days to actually approve" anything. "Fundamentally, it's very hard for them to even give us an answer." "95 percent of this is done, but literally changing words requires, occasionally, days of deliberation within their system." "We're mostly there and we feel like we've got a commitment on the enriched stockpile. We feel like we've got a commitment on the Strait of Hormuz. And we're haggling a little bit over some of the language." The deal President Trump is seeking would open the Strait of Hormuz and end Iran's longterm nuclear ambitions. Step 1: "They open the straits. We lift the blockade. We give the world economy some breathing room. They commit to giving up their highly enriched material." "They open the strait the minute we sign the MOU." Step 2: "You actually figure out the detailed mechanism by which they give up that highly enriched stockpile and you negotiate that over a certain period of time, probably 30 days." Sanctions will be on a dial. Good behavior gets rewarded. Bad behavior gets punished. "They don't get any money... if they do actually give us the material, then they get some resources... sanctions relief and things like that." Relief is phased in when Iran actually delivers. If they deliver their stockpile of enriched uranium, they'll get some sanctions relief. If they deliver real long-term commitments to stop nuclear enrichment, they'll get some sanctions relief. Giving Iran "sanctions relief" immediately for nothing "has never been in any part of the deal." "No pallets of cash, period." What's changed over the past few weeks? In negotiations, the Iranians "are clearly talking details about getting rid of the enriched stockpile in a way they never have before. The second significant change that we've seen is a willingness to stop enrichment, whether that's forever or for a time limit of some duration, we're going to figure that out in the details in negotiation." But it's important to remember, under the Obama Iran deal, they still had enrichment. That was always their redline. "They have acknowledged that is something they're going to have to give on." "The fact they're even willing to say that is a significant change from where they were two months ago," said the senior Trump administration official.

<I chant, repeatedly, under my breath as I descend into madness> “nobody has seen it, or knows what it is.”

@Rory_Johnston 👇 x.com/i/status/20586…

@AriFleischer Wake up Ari. There is no deal. There was no deal. He is in a quagmire. No support to restart military operations inside Iran. No real leverage at this point to force Iran into surrender of material or regime change.

On April 7, the President announced a double sided, two-week ceasefire subject to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE opening of the Strait. Iran didn’t comply. They gave their word and didn’t keep it. I don’t know what’s different now. Iran never keeps its word.

@DonMiami3 Lipstick on a pig, and they don't actually even have a pig...

We were supposed to have documents last night Played yet again

@KobeissiLetter x.com/i/status/20582…

BREAKING: The White House no longer expects an agreement with Iran to be announced today and thinks it could take "several more days" for the deal's approval, per Axios. Yesterday, President Trump said a deal announcement was coming "shortly." US officials are "optimistic" but say the deal could still fall apart.

two days, a few days, soon, two weeks, soon, two months... Translation, there is no conviction/support for renewing assertive military action into Iran, Iran knows this, and the stall game continues. The Iran/China/Russia consortium can play this prolonged stall process much longer than most want to acknowledge. The bluster from Trump is being called, he has no depth of a coalition or international support. Saying there is support for no nukes is easy for everyone. Hasn't changed in decades. JMO.

Sounds like he got a lot of pushback last evening comparing it to previous debacle. He has no mandate-level support to restart direct military operations unless Iran strikes first, and he has no establishment support for doing a deal that provides Iran an in essence status quo move-forward arrangement with SoH and Uranium unsettled.

Sounds like no deal

@JonahDispatch Working hard trying to figure out how to get one more piece of gold plated ornament on the wall...

I kind of love these. They are so obviously intended for Trump’s consumption because he thinks it’s a big deal to work late on a Saturday. The idea that working until 9:30 on a weekend is unprecedented heroic sacrifice for a president is just so hilariously ignorant and lame.

@alpaysh @elonmusk Looks like she did some stylist razamataz on Elon.

BREAKING: Elon Musk hires Nicki Minaj as Chief Gyatt Officer at SpaceX

@DonMiami3 Did one time for about ten minutes. Happened to be avwomens singles match. The vibe was like watching a cross over of one-on-one beach volleyball and a cage match. Strange. We laughed and changed the channel.

Do people actually watch pickleball on television?

@Rory_Johnston It's early in the weekend. A lot can happen, careful wording in the statements. Wouldn't jump too fast on deal being done, more likely a continuation of ongoing process and tactics. JMO.

We’ll see what we get. Gut says it’s just the April 7 ceasefire, round 2—but there’s always a hope. Let’s see how many ships cross Hormuz by Monday.