BUBBLE 🫧 💸

AI companies are about to collapse even with massive demand. Billions of dollars spent on data centers already. Here's the full story:🧵

Three of the biggest companies in the world are going public at the same time. The market has never seen anything like this. And this is how major bubbles peak. SpaceX is targeting a June 2026 IPO raising up to $75 billion at a $1.5 trillion valuation, the largest IPO in human history, bigger than Saudi Aramco's $29 billion raise in 2019. OpenAI is filing with the SEC targeting September 2026, raising at least $60 billion at a $1 trillion valuation. The company is losing $14 billion this year alone and won't be profitable until 2029. Anthropic just raised $30 billion in February 2026 at a $380 billion valuation. Its valuation has increased 15x in just 14 months. It is now preparing what could be a $900 billion private round before going public. Combined, these three IPOs could pull $200 billion from global capital markets. That is real. That is unprecedented. And here's the real risk. OpenAI is projected to lose $44 billion cumulatively before reaching profitability. Anthropic's valuation has risen 15x in 14 months on the same underlying business. Both companies are being priced for perfection at a moment when the first companies to actually deploy their products at scale are blowing their AI budgets and cancelling licenses. The real liquidation pressure from these IPOs doesn't even arrive at listing day. It arrives 180 days later when lock-up periods expire and early investors and employees can finally sell. That is when the real rotation happens. The S&P 500 concentration risk is genuine. The Magnificent 7 now represent 36% of the entire index, higher than the dot-com peak in 2000. If any of these companies disappoint, the index follows. That is not a conspiracy. That is basic math. Three historically unprecedented IPOs. $44 billion in projected OpenAI losses. An AI capex cycle that must deliver ROI. Lock-up expirations six months after listing. That combination is what you must pay attention to, as it often break cycles.

🚨 CHINA MIGHT HAVE JUST DESTROYED THE CHIP SCARCITY NARRATIVE THAT BUILT NVIDIA. Wall Street has priced Nvidia, TSMC, and the entire AI hardware supply chain on one single assumption, that advanced chips will remain scarce, expensive, and controlled by the West. Huawei just directly attacked that assumption. China built a completely new way to design chips that delivers the same computing performance as the most advanced Western chips by 2031 without buying a single piece of restricted Western equipment. The US sanctions were designed to freeze China out of the advanced chip market permanently. Instead they pushed Huawei to engineer a different path to the same destination. This is the exact same thing DeepSeek did to AI software last year. DeepSeek proved you could match OpenAI's performance at a fraction of the cost. Nvidia lost $600 billion in market cap in a single day. Huawei is now doing the same thing to hardware. If China can produce advanced computing power cheaply and at massive scale, the scarcity premium that justifies Nvidia's $5 trillion valuation and TSMC's margin story disappears entirely. Every AI infrastructure company is priced on the assumption that the hardware bottleneck lasts for years. Huawei's announcement directly challenges how long that bottleneck actually holds. Trillions of dollars in tech valuations have not priced this in yet.

🚨 THE AI COST BUBBLE IS GETTING WORSE. Companies pushed employees to “tokenmaxx” and aggressively use AI tools to boost productivity scores, but agentic AI can consume up to 1,000x more tokens than normal AI queries. Now the same companies that hyped AI cost savings are discovering that heavy AI usage is actually exploding operating costs instead of reducing them.

DURING THE DOT COM BUBBLE EVERYONE CALLED YAHOO THE SAFE BET WHAT THEY MISSED YAHOO’S CLIENTS WERE THE DOT COM COMPANIES. THE ONES WITH NO PATH TO PROFITABILITY THEY COLLAPSED, YAHOO COLLAPSED WITH THEM SAME THING IS HAPPENING IN AI. EVERYONE RUSHING TO THE ‘SAFE’ INFRASTRUCTURE PLAYS. GPUS, CLOUD, APIS BUT WHO’S PAYING THOSE BILLS? AI STARTUPS WITH NO REAL REVENUE, NO PROFITABILITY, AND A VC CHECK THAT WON’T LAST FOREVER. FUNDING DRIES UP. DOMINOES FALL. SO WHO ALL IS YAHOO THIS TIME? (YOU ALREADY KNOW)

🚨 BREAKING: THE BIG SHORT INVESTOR, MICHAEL BURRY, JUST SAID: "FEELING LIKE THE LAST MONTHS OF THE 1999-2000 BUBBLE." HE PREDICTED THE 2008 CRASH AND NOW HE HOLDS A $1 BILLION SHORT POSITION AGAINST TOP AI COMPANIES HE DEFINITELY KNOWS SOMETHING BAD IS COMING...

“Hey so there’s a bubble, sell it all. Now.”

Correct! 👇 The stock market is in the largest Bubble we have ever seen. The real Economy is completely detached. The Consumer is crushed. And the Euphoria on AI and Crypto is extreme. It ends with a Crash and major Recession.

Circular financing is a scam. When the AI bubble bursts, we’re absolutely fked fyi

🇺🇸 THE U.S. STOCK MARKET IS REPEATING THE 2008 CRISIS PATTERN. In 2008, the S&P-500 crashed 58% following the financial crisis. The US 30-year yield was sitting at 5.3% right before the crash took place. Right now they are sitting at 5.1% and the stock market is insanely overvalued. These two going up simultaneously has never been good. If this happens, millions will get liquidated. You've been warned.

🔴The AI bubble is now larger than almost every market bubble in history: The 'AI Big 10', comprising the Magnificent 7 plus Broadcom, AMD, and Micron, now accounts for a record 40% of total US stock market capitalization. This matches the peak concentration of the Nifty Fifty bubble of the 1970s and the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble. Including the upcoming mega IPOs of OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX, AI-related market concentration would surge to ~48%, surpassing every major bubble on record. The only bubble in history with greater concentration was the Railroad bubble of the 1880s, which peaked at 63%. Is the AI bubble near its end, or is there further room to run?

A company called “AI slop” backwards literally just raised $30m at $250m valuation Are we in a bubble?

🚨 ESTO SE ESTÁ PONIENDO PELIGROSO SpaceX, OpenAI y Anthropic podrían salir a bolsa al mismo tiempo. El mercado necesitaría absorber más de $200.000M en nueva liquidez. ¿De dónde saldrá ese dinero? 👀 Los grandes fondos tendrán que vender parte de sus posiciones en Big Tech. NVIDIA, Microsoft y Google serían las primeras en sufrir. Y si esas caen… el S&P 500 cae detrás. Ya pasó en la burbuja COVID: IPO infladas + liquidez seca = desplomes del 80%. La IA y la tecnología están al límite. Se viene una rotación masiva de capital.

THIS IS ABSOLUTELY RIDICULOUS. OpenAI and Anthropic are losing money on every dollar they make. OpenAI generated $20 billion in revenue in 2025 and is projected to lose $14 billion in the same year. Internal forecasts project cumulative losses hitting $44 billion by 2028. The company's own CFO warned executives in April 2026 that OpenAI might struggle to finance upcoming computing deals if revenue growth slows. Anthropic reached $4.3 billion in annualized revenue in April 2026 against $19 billion in total costs. It spends $3 to make $1, and is not expected to stop burning cash until 2027. Now look at what these two companies have committed to spend. OpenAI and Anthropic together have committed $1.05 trillion in cloud spending to Microsoft, Oracle, Google and Amazon, making up 43 to 54% of each provider's entire future revenue backlog. - Microsoft: $627B total backlog. OpenAI and Anthropic account for 49%. - Oracle: $553B total backlog. OpenAI alone accounts for 54%. - Google: $467.6B total backlog. Anthropic accounts for 43%. - Amazon: $464B total backlog. OpenAI and Anthropic account for 51%. The entire cloud industry's future revenue is a bet on two companies losing billions every quarter. Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon are collectively expected to spend $725 billion in capex in 2026, almost entirely on AI infrastructure. Combined hyperscaler capex from 2025 to 2027 is projected at $1.15 trillion, more than double what was spent from 2022 to 2024. What is the return on all of this? McKinsey's 2025 State of AI survey found that only a minority of companies reported AI meaningfully increased revenue or reduced costs. Enterprise generative AI spending grew from $1.7 billion in 2023 to $37 billion in 2025 and most CIOs still describe their initiatives as pilots without clear ROI metrics. Microsoft's AI business is running at a $37 billion annual revenue run rate with 123% year over year growth. That sounds impressive until you realize most of the capex funding is justified by expected future AI revenue rather than current AI profit. The internet burned money for years before it became the most profitable industry in history. But right now $1 trillion in committed cloud spend, $725 billion in annual capex, two loss-making customers making up half of every major cloud provider's revenue backlog, and the enterprises writing the checks cannot tell you if any of it is working.

🚨 I CANNOT LOOK AWAY FROM THIS CHART 🚨 This is the Dotcom crash overlaid on today's S&P 500 Every week I come back expecting it to finally diverge It doesn't The overlap keeps tracking with a precision that is honestly unsettling What are your thoughts on this?

🚨 THE ENTIRE AI BOOM MIGHT BE BUILT ON FAKE REVENUE. Latest corporate filings show that OpenAI and Anthropic alone make up over half of the entire $2 trillion future cloud backlog held by Microsoft, Oracle, Google, and Amazon. This massive pipeline is actually being created through a circular accounting trick called a round trip revenue loop. But how it works ? A tech giant gives billions of dollars to an AI startup as an "investment". But hidden in the contract is a strict rule forcing the startup to hand that exact same money straight back to the tech giant to rent their computer servers. Look at the documented case of Microsoft and OpenAI. When Microsoft invested $13 billion into OpenAI, it didn't just give them cash; it gave them "cloud credits" to use Microsoft servers. OpenAI used those exact credits to train its AI models, and Microsoft then turned around and recorded that server usage as brand new "cloud revenue" from a customer. The tech giant is literally paying itself with its own money and calling it a sale. This is why OpenAI’s annual cloud bill has ballooned to over $60 billion, double its actual revenue of $25 billion, kept alive solely by this recycled funding loop. Anthropic runs the exact same play, spending $2.66 billion on Amazon Web Services in just nine months, which was basically 100% of all the money it earned at the time. This manufactured demand triggers a second accounting trick where tech giants book massive paper profits. Every time a startup gets a higher value from a new funding round, the tech giant updates the value of its investment on its books and counts that unearned paper gain as direct profit. In Q1 2026, Alphabet reported a record $62.6 billion profit, but $28.7 billion nearly half, was just a paper markup on its Anthropic investment. In the same quarter, Amazon reported $30.3 billion in profit, but $16.8 billion of it was just an Anthropic paper gain. While Amazon reported record profits, its actual free cash flow collapsed 95% to just $1.2 billion because it had to spend $44.2 billion in real cash to build physical data centers. This has created a massive danger where these giant companies rely heavily on just one or two unstable startups. Microsoft has 49% of its $627 billion future backlog tied to OpenAI, while Oracle has an incredible 54% of its entire $553 billion pipeline relying on OpenAI alone. This perfectly mirrors the 2001 dot-com crash when Global Crossing and Qwest Communications swapped identical fiber-optic network capacity with each other just to book fake sales. Qwest had to erase $1.4 billion in fake income, and Global Crossing went completely bankrupt. The only difference is that the dot-com swaps were illegal, but today's AI loop is fully legal under current accounting rules. This legal loop inflates tech company stock prices, forcing automatic retirement accounts and index funds to buy even more of these tech stocks. It is a self feeding loop where investments, sales, and stock prices all go up on paper without the AI technology ever making real cash profits.