loren3o

The total number of smart people in the world has just peaked. And now it's about to crash.

@bneeditor No Ben, production couldn't "x3 with some money", that's not how it works. I'm not even talking about the capacity the user could consume. This is all very silly and your buy side promo is appreciated

this is crazy. last year a total of FDI into UKR defence tech was $129mn that is a piddlingly tiny amount for defence tech UKR has signficant drone production capability sitting idle for the lack of investment it could x3 production with some money. and its badly needed. Investment in Ukrainian defense technologies has surged over 1,800% in two years. According to the Ukrainian fund AVentures Capital, venture investment in domestic defense tech in 2023 reached $6.7 million, and are projected to hit about $129M in 2025. This represents a 1,825% growth in funding. The report highlights that MilTech is the fastest-growing sector among Ukrainian startups. In 2024, investment volume rose by 780%, totaling $59 million, and in 2025, it increased by another 119%. However, the actual investment volume may be significantly higher, as many MilTech investments are classified for security reasons. The average investment amount in the defense sector last year was $2.1 million, a 400% increase from 2024, despite a 400% decrease in the number of deals. Additionally, some companies have already become profitable, with leaders including Skyeton, Antonov, Ukrspecsystems, Fire Point, Athlon Avia, SkyFall, Airlogix, and TAF Industries. External investments account for 49%, while another 25% stems from joint investments by foreign and Ukrainian investors.

@StrategickeM @VilemVrzala Scenáre s 200 sú nezmysel lebo pri takej cene jednoducho neexistuje kupec. Predpokladá neelastický dopyt ale všetko nad 4% svetového HDP je proste globálna recesia. Strop je 120-130

Agentura Bloomberg zpracovala tři scénáře pro Německo. Nejlepší je s cenou ropy ustálené na 80 dolarech - to je schopné Německo ustát. Druhý scénář vrhne celou zemi do ekonomické krize s cenou kolem 160 USD Třetí počítá s katastrofickou cenou přes 200 USD a tam netřeba nic vysvětlovat. welt.de/wirtschaft/plu…

Německo čekají problémy. Napadení LNG kapacit Kataru a válka proti Íránu bude mít ještě tvrdší dopady než ukrajinské zničení plynovodu NordStream. Německo po zničení plynovodu z Ruska a odříznutí se od ruských dodávek vsadilo vše na LNG, bez plynu nelze také dále pokračovat v prosazování OZ energie (plyn je nutný pro zálohování). Omezení dodávek LNG a masivní zdražení bude pro celé Německo katastrofální a ani to nejde vyřešit uhelnými zdroji, protože ty jsou již přetížené. welt.de/politik/auslan…

@AndrejDanko3 Irán aspoň má nejaké karty

Irán hrá vysokú hru, na ktorú nemá karty. Odnesú si to ako vzdy tí, ktori za to nemôžu. Poďme z tejto tragédie vytrieskať nejaké seriózne peniaze.

@teortaxesTex @RexStructorum not sure about US, but it's definitely becoming less relevant for the China supply chain, so the argument is getting weaker, until only 'one people' remains

@RexStructorum @burrrson This is retarded with every passing day Taiwan is less relevant for the US supply chains. If they were motivated by this they'd strike yesterday

Israel has been on an exponential bull run ever since Oct 7. If you don't understand (or don't want to understand) why that will continue, you're in no position to dunk on me. The world doesn't work according to your childish third worldist wishes. Matthew 25:29.

@RexStructorum @teortaxesTex this is all just outsider speculation bro. we know shit about the internals there

@teortaxesTex @burrrson They are afraid/unprepared. Why did Xi just wage a political decapitation campaign against the PLA?

@RexStructorum @teortaxesTex You can find all kinds of motivations. Brings us back to the whole geopolitics brain debate. Isn't it just self-fulfilling circle jerking in the end?

@burrrson @teortaxesTex They don’t just want Taiwan for historical reasons. they are very strongly motivated to gain leverage against and weaken the United States, including by interrupting our supply chains. Especially tech

@RexStructorum @teortaxesTex D.C. whatever, you know what I mean

@burrrson @teortaxesTex What’s the 51st state?

@RexStructorum @teortaxesTex Taiwan is in a very different, incomparable situation. China claims Taiwan and it's people. Iran doesn't claim the lands of Israel per se and definitely not its people

@burrrson @teortaxesTex Do you think it’s a coincidence that Taiwan and Israel are constantly under threat by our adversaries?

@RexStructorum @teortaxesTex I don't mean 'not real' in the tankie sense. I mean 'not real' as in the unique dual nature of capital and citizens of Israel. Saying Israel is just the 52nd US state may not be entirely correct but it's a useful shortcut

You know I’m sympathetic to some arguments that a lot of the tech economy is somewhat “not real.” But it’s simply tankie brained stupidity to pretend that R&D and tech and finance are completely fake. Yes, Taiwan is much more impressive in manufacturing. I would prefer that we find a way to replicate that somewhere else too. Very much rooting for Intel.

@Laish_IL @teortaxesTex I lumped the Wiz buyout in the $60B. Nvidia will not be producing in Israel and pockets the money in US so...

@burrrson @teortaxesTex Enjoy reading, just from the last quarter

@RexStructorum @teortaxesTex Taiwan has a global consumer base. US and China are roughly equal at $180B. The proportions of dependencies and real economy are not the same

@burrrson @teortaxesTex Yes and Taiwan has the same relationship to the US. Most of their consumer tech companies have important US branches. Do some cursory research on ASUS, Gigabyte, etc. Gigabyte has a major HQ in California.

@RexStructorum @teortaxesTex The Intel fab is a huge chunk of their physical capital but it's Intel. Point is that most of the stocks is just derived from the dual US incorporated/citizenship. Elbit, their biggest tech firm has production mostly in US. Israel will be ok, but the stock market is a poor proxy

@burrrson @teortaxesTex Ah yes they famously had an intel factory that kept working through the air strikes. Kind of an inspirational story of courage and perseverance.

@RexStructorum @teortaxesTex No, the physical fab is on Taiwan. Raw material in, goods out, money in. Check the customs data

@burrrson @teortaxesTex Most Taiwanese revenue is foreign. It’s still an economic and technological powerhouse

@Laish_IL @teortaxesTex Yes, the momey will not end in tengible assets on the ground in Israel

@burrrson @teortaxesTex “Tech isn’t a real economy”

@nikola_mikovic They have wiped out most if not all of the excess capacity and avoided long distance power lines. A lot of capacity in Ukraine was underutilized

@burrrson Russia has been targeting transformers in Ukraine since 2023, if not earlier. If what you’re saying were true, Ukraine would have no electricity left by now.

This reminds me of when Russia strikes a transformer in Ukraine. The damage is often insignificant and can be easily repaired, yet Ukraine claims everything was “destroyed” to deter further Russian attacks. It’s my impression the Gulf states are using a similar strategy.

@teortaxesTex At the gas pump they will

A very serious and obviously correct writeup from Balaji. Unfortunately, the US is a net energy exporter, so American war pigs will not feel enough pain as a consequence of their choices.

@bneeditor I wish Russia shared not only sat intel but advanced missiles and drones to the maximum annoyance and damage to the burgers. It would only be fair. Alas, they are inhumanly patient with the psychos

This is another faceless “people familiar with the matter“ story on something that’s purely hearsay. It could well be that Russian is sharing satellite Intel and drone technology with their own. Particularly drone technology. What is shocking is china is openly sharing extremely useful and accurate satellite Intel with Iran. They even released the photos of US Jets parked on a Uae US military base complete with identifying tags written in Chinese onto the Internet Iran has used this highly accurate satellite intelligence that only the USA used to have to knock out all four of the THAAD radar stations in ME and multiple jets before they could get into the air However this china sat intel story is barely getting any press in the west and everyone instead is focusing on the speculation – and that’s all it is speculation – that Russian might be saying sharing some satellite Intel with Iran . Given that Russia is in proxy war with nato, why the hell wouldn’t it share intelligence with Iran tgat is in an open war with the US. Trump has started an unprovoked & totally illegal war with Iran. in this case at least putin would be entirely justified in supporting the underdog. Our piece on the Chinese satellite data intellinews.com/iran-turns-to-…