CA Gaurav Mohnot

Crazy FIIs withdrawal from Indian equities: India has the growth story, the demographics, and the market depth that every global fund manager dreams about. Yet FII and FPI flows remain inconsistent. The reason is simple — we keep making it hard to invest here. High LTCG and STCG taxes, complex compliance, slow repatriation, unpredictable policy changes, and expensive INR hedging are silently pushing capital to Vietnam, Indonesia, and China. Foreign money doesn’t need to be sold on India’s potential. It needs to be sold on India’s predictability. Until we offer a genuinely investor-friendly environment — simpler taxes, faster settlement, and stable rules — we will keep leaving billions on the table. The budget needs to get serious about this. Moreover, we can’t take the leverage higher valuations always when growth slowing down. We need to somehow cut from our pocket to compensate the growth to attract foreign money.

Nice!

FIIs sold ₹1.15L Cr at the Oct’24 top. They’ve already sold ₹1.05L Cr this March — near the bottom. Sold high. Sold low. The accumulation begins. #FIIs

@spectatorindex Iran hasn’t won the war. But it’s winning every round.

BREAKING: Iran has demanded closure of US bases in the Gulf, end of all sanctions, end of Israeli campaign against Hezbollah and a framework that would allow it to collect fees from ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, as part of a response to Trump proposal, according to Wall Street Journal report.

Headwinds Nobody’s Talking About: India’s GDP crossed $4 trillion. 5th largest economy. World’s largest youth population. The growth story writes itself — until you look at where the money actually goes. The Budget Picture: Total central spend: ₹50 lakh crore. Defence gets ₹6.8 lakh crore — largest ministry allocation. But 72% of it is salaries, pensions, maintenance. Actual modernisation capex is barely 28% of that headline. In GDP terms, 1.9% on defence — below the global average of 2.5%, well below China’s sustained buildup. We’re funding a 21st century military on a constrained budget. The number nobody talks about: interest payments eat ₹12.5 lakh crore. More than defence. More than education and health combined — just the cost of past borrowing. Education: ₹1.28 lakh crore. Health: ₹90K crore. Thin numbers for a $4 trillion economy. Where India Is Really Falling Behind R&D spending: 0.64% of GDP. China is at 2.41%. US at 3.47%. Israel — a country of 9 million people — spends 5.71%. China crossed 1% of GDP on R&D in 2002. Crossed 2% in 2013. India has never once crossed 1%. In absolute terms, India spends $71 billion on R&D. China spends $500 billion. That’s not a gap — that’s a structural disadvantage compounding every year. Worse, Indian private sector contributes only 36% of total R&D spend. In China it’s 77%, US it’s 75%. Meaning Indian corporates — sitting on record profits and market caps — are optimising existing businesses, not betting on the future. Infy, TCS are doing buy-back rather to spend on AI - that’s mind boggling. The result: India produces engineers at scale but imports the technology they use. We integrate and consume the innovation cycle. We don’t originate it. The Real Problem: Between debt servicing, defence, subsidies, and salaries — there’s barely room left for the future. Every populist spend in a state election is a rupee not going to a deep-tech lab or semiconductor research. Viksit Bharat 2047 is a legitimate ambition. But the countries that lead the next century are the ones that spent building the technology and on R&D.

@KobeissiLetter “डील करनी है तो हमारी शर्तों पर।” 🇮🇷

BREAKING: An Iranian source tells CNN that there has been "outreach" between the US and Iran and that Iran is willing to listen to "sustainable" proposals to end the war. “Iran is not asking for a meeting or direct talks with the US but is willing to listen if a plan for a sustainable deal comes within reach that would preserve the national interests of Iran,” the source said.

@cryptorover He has no chill 😎

💥BREAKING: 🇺🇸 President Trump will make a major announcement today at 1:30 PM ET.

Rule #1 in this war: Believe Iran. Doubt Trump. Today’s market moved on Iran’s signal — not Trump’s.

Trump struck hard. Iran’s nuclear sites gone. Top leaders killed. Military crippled. But back home? Pain. Oil up. Gas up. Inflation up. Bond yields at 4.6%. A president who promised $2 gas is delivering the opposite. In a midterm year. That’s a problem. So he needs out. And he needs out fast. Oil always knows before the news does. If it keeps dropping — the deal is done.

#Bajajfinance : yesterday hit P/B around 4.8 and a sharp bounce back.

Power, T&D, Transmission, Conversion and turbine. Here’s why this is the most important capex story of the decade 👇 The numbers first: → 520 GW installed capacity (crossed this year) → 50%+ already clean energy — greener than most realise → 500 GW MORE non-fossil target by 2030 → Demand growing 30%+ in 6 years → ₹32,000 cr flowing into new factories RIGHT NOW Now follow the money across every layer: ⚡ Who generates the power NTPC — government’s 200 GW anchor, thermal + solar + hydro Tata Power — 20 GW ambition, India’s most trusted utility brand JSW Energy — ₹1.3 lakh cr capex plan, 30 GW by 2030, pumped hydro + BESS Adani Power — largest private thermal base, aggressive RE pivot Torrent Power — steady PPA-backed cash flows, clean energy scale-up 🏗️ Who builds the transmission lines KEC International — won record T&D orders, dominant in 765kV ISTS corridors Kalpataru Projects — strong domestic + Middle East T&D order book. Skipper — supplies tower structures directly to Power Grid 🔧 Who makes the transformers & grid equipment TRIL — pure-play transformer, ₹5,100 cr unexecuted orders, backward integrating Voltamp — niche distribution transformer play, first capacity expansion in 15 years GE Vernova T&D — ₹806 cr capex, expanding reactor + GIS + bushing capacity Hitachi Energy India — HVDC leader, ₹29,413 cr order book, margins at 15%+ Siemens Energy India — ₹2,060 cr new factory approved Feb 2026, 60,000 MVA target ☀️ Who builds solar & wind Waaree Energies — India’s #1 solar module maker, US + India factory investments Premier Energies — integrated cell-to-module, fastest growing in the space Suzlon — wind turbine leader, order book at decade high Inox Wind — turbine + EPC, fastest execution ramp in wind sector Sterling & Wilson — pure solar EPC, large RE developer pipeline. 🔌 Who lays the cables Polycab — EHV to household, India’s most complete cable franchise. KEI Industries — specialist in extra high voltage underground cables. Finolex — strong in industrial + building wire segment Sterlite Technologies — conductors + optical ground wire for transmission 🔋 Who stores the energy Amara Raja — Li-ion gigafactory under construction, BESS contracts in pipeline Exide Industries — ₹6,000 cr capex into Li-ion cell manufacturing 🏦 Who finances all of this PFC — ₹9 lakh cr loan book, every rupee of power capex flows through here REC — ₹6 lakh cr book, co-lender on all major RE + grid projects The math is simple: India needs to double its grid in 6 years. Every tower, cable, transformer, turbine, battery needs to be ordered, built, installed. This is not a sector rotation. This is a structural decade-long order book story 📈 From turbine → transformer → tower → cable → storage → finance.

Iran read Trump better than Trump read Iran. Midterms are ahead, geopolitical pressure is mounting. He needs a win, not a war.

India VIX is still below Jun ’24 levels. Most mid & large caps are still above Jun ’24 levels. When both converge — VIX spikes past Jun ’24, stocks retest Jun ‘24 — that’s your bottom signal. #indiavix

Brent crude has one wall left - $150 Held in 2008. Held (almost) in 2022. A third test is coming.?

@InvestorOfJAMMU Next stop : 2008 levels

Crude made High of $119 two times in the last 15 days. Double Top?? Now, $119 should never cross or else🚨🚨

Large and mid cap charts are flashing warning signs across the board. Interestingly, relative strength is emerging in small caps.

War started. Defense forgot to defend. Defensives forgot to be defensive. Narrative sahi tha. Valuation galat tha. #Nifty #IndianMarkets #DefenceStocks #Sensex

#Nifty #niftybank Long-term trend is Sell On Rise - institutions likely to sell every pullback amid Gulf War tensions & uncertain macro. Avoid going long on dips until clearer signs of improvement emerge. #SellOnRise #MarketStrategy

Bajaj Finance — A P/B Valuation Story Worth Knowing! Nov'24 → P/B hit 4.7x | Stock @ ₹650 (lowest zone) Oct'25 → P/B at 7x | Stock @ ₹1,100 (+70% rally!) Today → P/B at 5|vStock @ ₹850 | 22% corrected from top 10-Year Avg P/B of Bajaj Finance = ~8x Golden Rule: When P/B drops below 5x → It's a buying opportunity, historically! Are we heading back to that zone? 👀 Watch closely! #BajajFinance #NBFC #StockMarket #ValueInvesting #PriceToBook #NiftyStocks #IndianStocks #FinancialServices #InvestSmart #Nifty50 #BSE #NSE #StockAnalysis #LongTermInvesting #BajajFinserv

The Great Indian Brand Erosion — A Wake-Up Call! Bata is down 70% from its peak. Relaxo has corrected nearly 80% from its top. These numbers are not just a stock market story — they tell a deeper tale about the rapidly changing psyche of the Indian consumer. For decades, Indian footwear brands dominated every corner of the country, from metro malls to rural streets. But today, that dominance is quietly crumbling. The Indian consumer — even the rural buyer — is increasingly walking away from homegrown brands and stepping into the world of Puma, Adidas, and Nike. The catalyst? The e-commerce revolution. Platforms like Myntra, Nykaa, Amazon, and Meesho have demolished geographical barriers overnight. A teenager in a small town in Bihar now has the same access to global fashion as someone shopping in Mumbai's Palladium Mall. The playing field has been flattened, and Indian brands are feeling the heat. India's consumption story is no longer simple or predictable. It is evolving at a breathtaking pace. Aspirations are rising, awareness is exploding, and swadeshi sentiment alone is simply not enough to sell anymore. The message for Indian brands is loud and clear — compete on design, innovate on quality, and lead with style — or risk becoming irrelevant in your own home market. And the shift is happening across every category: 👕 Innerwear & Casualwear — Jockey, Van Heusen, and Calvin Klein are eating into the market share of Rupa, Lux, and Dollar Industries. Comfort, branding, and aspirational value are driving the switch. 👟 Footwear — Puma, Adidas, and Nike now dominate not just premium shelves but even mid-market segments, leaving Bata, Relaxo, and Campus scrambling for relevance. A ₹2,000 Puma sneaker is now aspirational even in Tier 3 cities. ⌚ Watches — Tissot, Seiko, and Fossil have redefined what a "good watch" looks like for the Indian middle class. Titan, once the undisputed king, is losing ground fast. And HMT? It is now a nostalgia brand, not a choice brand. 🎒 Bags & Accessories — Wildcraft and Skybags are feeling the pressure from Samsonite, American Tourister, and even DTC global brands available directly on Amazon. The Indian traveller has upgraded. 💄 Beauty & Personal Care — Lakme and Himalaya, once the go-to choices, are now competing fiercely against L'Oréal, Maybelline, The Ordinary, and a flood of Korean beauty brands — all accessible on Nykaa with next-day delivery. 🍔 Quick Service Restaurants — Haldiram's and local chains are losing younger consumers to McDonald's, Subway, Burger King, and Domino's — not just for the food, but for the experience and brand identity. 🛋️ Home & Lifestyle — IKEA's entry has shaken up the furniture and home décor space, challenging traditional Indian players who never felt the need to innovate on design. The common thread across all these stories? Access. Myntra, Amazon, Nykaa, Meesho, and Ajio have put the entire global marketplace in the palm of every Indian's hand — regardless of whether they live in Mumbai or Muzaffarpur. The rural Indian consumer, once loyal by default due to limited choices, now has unlimited choices. And they are choosing aspiration over habit. This is not anti-nationalism. This is consumer evolution. And it is a warning siren for every listed Indian consumer brand that has been coasting on legacy and distribution muscle without investing in design, quality, innovation, and brand storytelling. The Indian market is no longer protected by geography or ignorance. It is now a fully open, globally competitive battlefield — and only those Indian brands that rise to meet global standards will survive and thrive. 🇮🇳 The Indian consumer has upgraded. It's time Indian brands do too. #Bata #Relaxo #MadeInIndia #SwadeshiBrands #Puma #Nike #Adidas #Ecommerce #Myntra #Amazon #IndianConsumer #BharatStocks #ConsumptionStory #RuralIndia #IndianEconomy #StockMarketIndia #BSE #NSE #BrandIndia #AtmanirbharBharat