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📅 Today’s Events (all GMT) 📅 🌍 Global ⚪ Light data day 🟡 Geopolitical headlines (oil / Middle East) remain the key driver

⭐ Data Recap ⭐ 🇺🇸 US: • Jobless claims ✔️ 205K • Continuing claims ✖️ 1.857M • New home sales ✖️ -17.6% m/m • Philly Fed ✔️ 18.1 🇬🇧 UK: • Unemployment 5.2% (=) • Wage growth slows

🟡 Global central banks on hold: • ECB 2% | BoE 3.75% (unanimous) • SNB 0% | PBoC unchanged 📊 Takeaway: • Coordinated pause reinforces “higher for longer”. • Supports USD, pressures metals short term.

Commodities snapshot: Gold & silver pull back — liquidation + hawkish central bank holds. Rotation into bonds adds pressure. 🟡 Oil remains elevated: • ~$100 → pullback to ~$93 • Brent–WTI spread still near multi-year highs 📊 Key driver: geopolitics > fundamentals

⭐ Indices Snapshot ⭐ ✔️ Slight bounce, but energy still in focus U.S. futures edge higher after a relatively calm session, with small caps outperforming: S&P 500 ✖️ slight loss → ~6,7xx Nasdaq 100 ✖️ slight loss Dow 30 ✖️ slight loss Russell 2000 ✔️ +0.7% → 2,494 📊 Themes: • Oil volatility still dominating sentiment (spike → pullback). • Large caps lag, small caps show relative strength. • Yields fall on long end after short-end scare. • FedWatch → only one cut expected in 2026 (October).

⭐ Stocks Snapshot ⭐ ✖️ Tesla -3.2% — FSD probe deepens (WSJ). ✔️ Rivian +3.8% — Uber partnership + robotaxi deal. ✖️ Super Micro -12% AH — export control violation (Nvidia chips). ✖️ Micron -3.8% — downgrade to hold. ✔️ FedEx +9.5% AH — strong beat + raised FY26 outlook. 📊 Themes: • Regulatory + export risks weigh on tech. • EV divergence continues (Tesla vs Rivian). • Earnings still driving sharp moves.

$MU post-earnings framework @50Pips 🟢 Close above $455.50 → $500 in play 🟡 $351–$456 range → use $403 as internal pivot 🔴 Close below $351.23 → $300 (200-day MA converging) Range is full of gaps. Fast moves = low signal. Closes at the extremes = the only signal that matters. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 81.31% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Opinions shared are not investment advice. This material is intended for informational purposes only.

$MU beat estimates by a mile last night. Guidance ~40% above Street @50Pips The stock gapped down 8%. Three gap-ups into earnings. Closed red on earnings day. Strong beat. Big sell-off. That's not bad luck. That's the good news already being in the price. $455.50 is the line. Below it = path of least resistance is lower. 📊 [Chart – MU: Post-Earnings Range $351–$456; $455.50 and $351.23 Are the Boundaries] (Source: TradingView) (Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results)

Israel launched another wave of strikes against Iran in the conflict's fourth week. Trump publicly told Jerusalem not to repeat attacks on Iranian energy assets, revealing a public disagreement between the two allies over targeting priorities. Iran responded by striking Israel's Haifa oil refinery with missiles, causing some damage. Both sides are now targeting each other's energy infrastructure symmetrically. Analysis cited by Reuters finds Netanyahu has emerged as the primary political beneficiary of the conflict while Trump and Gulf state leaders face reputational and material costs from a war that has drawn direct attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure. With Trump publicly rebuking Israel over targeting choices while both sides systematically attack each other's energy infrastructure, how does a public US-Israeli disagreement affect market confidence in a managed de-escalation? #Israel #Iran #Trump #Netanyahu #Geopolitics

Analysis reported by Reuters warns the Iran conflict's energy price shock will feed directly through into food prices in developing economies, where fuel and transport are core components of food supply chains. The poorest and most import-dependent countries face the most severe exposure. Separately, analysis suggests the conflict risks tipping China from deflation into cost-push inflation, raising input costs without boosting demand and creating stagflationary conditions that would complicate Beijing's policy options significantly. The conflict's economic consequences are now moving well beyond energy markets into food security and emerging market stability. With the energy shock transmitting into food prices across developing economies, which markets are most exposed and is that risk being reflected in emerging market asset prices yet? #FoodPrices #FoodSecurity #DevelopingEconomies

European nations, Japan and Canada published a coordinated statement on Hormuz navigation, representing a meaningful step toward allied diplomatic alignment on the shipping crisis. The statement does not commit military assets from any of the signatories. Trump has separately invoked the Pearl Harbor comparison with Japan's prime minister to pressure Tokyo toward greater Hormuz participation, a request that sits in direct tension with Japan's constitutional constraints on military deployment. The EU simultaneously called for a moratorium on strikes against energy and water infrastructure following attacks on Qatar's LNG hub and Saudi oil facilities. With allies willing to sign statements but not commit ships or troops, how much does diplomatic alignment actually move the needle on Hormuz and what does the market need to see before pricing in a genuine resolution? #Hormuz #Geopolitics #Japan #Europe #Canada #NATO

Oil and fuel cargo prices reached record highs and natural gas surged before partially retreating on signals from the US and allied partners around supply-boosting measures and efforts to restore Hormuz transit. The pullback followed direct missile damage to Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG complex and Saudi oil infrastructure. Both sides are now systematically targeting each other's energy infrastructure. The IEA issued behavioural guidance urging households and businesses to work from home and avoid flying, a directness that reflects its own assessment of the severity of the supply disruption. JP Morgan forecasts BoE hikes in April and July. Goldman sees no BoE cut until 2027. When record oil prices pull back on supply signals rather than supply reality, how much of the current price reflects fundamentals and how much is being driven purely by headline risk? #OilPrice #BrentCrude #LNG #EnergyMarkets #Commodities

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💶 EUR/USD · The Go-To Execution Pair · 19.03.26 · Adamis Principle Oil (102.50) → S&P market profile → now EUR/USD. Patrick's three-layer framework. For FX traders, EUR/USD is the deepest, most liquid execution pair — and today, with both the BoE and ECB reporting, it's the most live chart on the screen. 🔑 Key Technical Levels ├ Resistance: 1.1569 ├ Resistance: 1.1825 (61.8% Fib) ├ Current price: 1.1468 ├ Support: 1.1411 (0% Fib / range base) └ Trend: descending channel from 1.2081 high in play ⚠️ ECB watch: Christine Lagarde faces a difficult question — how do you justify a rate hike when the ECB mandate is price stability, oil is driving inflation, and we've seen this movie before? Trichet hiked in 2008 AND 2011. The 2011 hike came at the peak of the Greek debt crisis. Both were mistakes. Today's ECB decision will be watched through that lens. 📅 Today's key events ├ Bank of England → expect GBP volatility ├ ECB (Lagarde) → EUR volatility — hawkish risk if oil inflation cited └ Monday: Global PMIs — the next macro 'canary in the coal mine' 🔑 Full FX level sheet ├ EUR/USD → 1.1411 then 1.1569 ├ AUD/USD → 0.6960 then 0.7186 ├ USD/JPY → 160.00 ← major MoF intervention zone ├ GBP/USD → 1.3224 then 1.3400 └ USD/CAD → 1.3653 then 1.3758 📊 [Chart – EUR/USD 4H: Descending Channel; 1.1411 Base and 1.1569 Resistance] (Source: Tradermade) (Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results)

📊 S&P 500 E-Mini Futures · Secondary Value Level · 19.03.26 · Adamis Principle Use oil (102.50 CL) as the primary anchor. Use the S&P market profile as confluence for the secondary value level. When markets feel random, these are the levels that restore clarity. 📐 Patrick's framework When markets change on a dime and don't seem to make sense: → Set levels of value that — if broken — change the narrative → Start with oil at 102.50 → Use S&P market profile structure as secondary confluence 🔑 Key levels from the S&P profile ├ VAH (Value Area High): ~6,800 zone (prior sessions) ├ POC: ~6,670 (current price cluster) ├ VAL (Value Area Low): ~6,600 ← watch this closely └ Below VAL: ~6,580–6,600 gap / potential next leg lower ⚠️ S&P dropped ~100 points post-Fed. The question now: do S&P futures reach 6,600? Market profile shows thin trade below current levels — if VAL breaks, the move could accelerate. 📌 Today's focus: BoE and ECB both reporting. Expect GBP and EUR volatility. 📊 [Chart – S&P 500 E-Mini Market Profile: VAL / POC / VAH Structure in Context] (Source: TradingView) (Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results)

🛢️ Oil · The Anchor Level · 19.03.26 · Adamis Principle The Fed came and went, mildly hawkish, broadly in line. USD bid during the press conference. Rates firmed. But the biggest move came from equities: S&P 500 dropped ~100 points. And it all still traces back to oil. 🔑 Patrick's number one level: 102.50 in CL Futures This is where Patrick starts every trading day. Everything else follows from here. Why 102.50? ├ POC (Point of Control) from the 8 March spike session ├ Horizontal resistance from the market profile structure ├ The level oil failed at — and from which the reversal began └ As long as oil stays below 102.50: USD can stay firm, but narrative shifts 📌 Three things drove USD strength post-Fed: 1️⃣ Core PCE projection revised UP: 2.5% → 2.7% (oil + geopolitical uncertainty) 2️⃣ Powell: "We won't see a rate cut if we don't see progress on inflation" 3️⃣ Qatar refinery fire → oil pushed higher → USD followed ⚠️ Patrick's theme for the week: The positive correlation between oil and USD is dominant. Macro, risk sentiment and rates are playing second fiddle — for now. Next week: deeper dive on oil and the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz. 📊 [Chart – WTI Crude Oil Market Profile: 102.50 POC as the Primary Anchor] (Source: TradingView) (Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results)

Our analysts didn't hold back on Wednesday and one call stood out above the rest. 🏦 The Fed has wiggle room. The ECB has wiggle room. But the Bank of England? Daniela Hathorn, our Senior Market Analyst called it the worst positioned central bank in the world right now. Here's the trap. Inflation is still above target and stubbornly sticky, especially in services. But growth is practically non-existent, mirroring the worst of the eurozone. That combination is the definition of stagflation and it puts the BOE in an impossible position. Do they look through the energy price shock, call it transitory, and cut rates to rescue a flatlining economy? Or do they hold firm on inflation and let growth deteriorate further? There is no clean answer. And that's exactly what makes the Bank of England the most fascinating and most troubled, central bank to watch right now. #BankOfEngland #Stagflation #InterestRates #Inflation #Markets

SPX / DJI / NDX / RUT all at the 10-month MA. What happens next? @50Pips → One marginal monthly close = signal to monitor → Sustained series of closes = genuine regime shift Three things that can distort the signal: ├ Whipsaws in choppy markets ├ Lag (bull runs favour buy-and-hold) └ Month-end calendar flows (rebalancing + options hedging) Treat it as a framework input. Not a crystal ball. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 81.31% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Opinions shared are not investment advice. This material is intended for informational purposes only.

All four major US indices are testing their 10-month moving averages @50Pips This is the institutional trend filter — the monthly 200-day equivalent. Meb Faber backtested it 1973–2012: ├ Similar returns to buy-and-hold ├ Volatility down 20–30% └ Max drawdowns cut by ~half It improves the PATH of returns. Not the level. The monthly close is what matters — not intraday noise. 📊 [Chart – SPX / DJI / NDX / RUT Monthly: All Four Testing the 10-Month Moving Average] (Source: TradingView) (Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results)

The Federal Reserve held rates as widely expected but struck a notably hawkish tone. Fed Chair Powell stated inflation is expected to rise and flagged energy prices as a key variable under close watch. Morgan Stanley revised its first Fed cut forecast to September following the decision. The dot plot reinforced the higher-for-longer message. The Iran war's energy price impact is now explicitly embedded in the Fed's framework as an inflationary driver. The BOJ held simultaneously and warned of the conflict's inflationary impact. The ECB is expected to signal a harder stance on inflation. Wall Street closed sharply lower as the hawkish Fed hold and Iran's Gulf energy attacks hit markets in the same session. The Fed, BOJ and ECB are all signalling higher for longer at the same time. Which asset class takes the biggest hit first? #FederalReserve #FOMC #Powell #InterestRates #Stagflation