CDan

8.7K posts

CDan

CDan

@cDandanFi

Katılım Nisan 2021
655 Takip Edilen196 Takipçiler
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CDan
CDan@cDandanFi·
Got my beautiful metal @ether_fi Cash card to complement the instant virtual version. Want one too plus 15% off food and drink? 1️⃣ Open an account via the link 2️⃣ Complete KYC 3️⃣ Activate at least one card ether.fi/refer/9db90091
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
Wow I’ve hit 300k followers just now! What a milestone! My goal from the start was always to help retail from Day 0 instead of institutions. That being said… I’ve probably helped out $IBKR too much recently with thousands of new “Serenity Accounts? $HOOD retail DW… Working on something surprising for you all, just stay tight. Maybe 6-8 weeks? Regardless happy to see so much validation of my thoughts. And I hope whatever I do sets a lasting example for X about the positive sum nature of free information democratization.
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Jimmy狐狸@jimmyhuli

这一波 Serenity 带着大家买瑞典、德国、法国、韩国股票的,都跑去 $IBKR 开户了吧。 $HOOD 真心悲剧

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CK Capital
CK Capital@CKCapitalxx·
My 2030 price targets. These are mine. Not financial advice. DYOR. $ASTS — $77 today. Every US carrier now on board. 3.3 billion addressable subscribers. 60% of consumers willing to pay per GSMA survey. At 30% adoption and $5 ARPU this is a $1 trillion company. 2030 target: $1000+. $NBIS — $218 today. 684% revenue growth. $7-9B ARR guidance for 2026. Meta deal. NVIDIA partnership. Pennsylvania 1.2GW factory announced. At 15x on $7B revenue that’s $105B market cap. Still early. 2030 target: $800+. $BE — $275 today. 130% revenue growth Q1. $3.6B 2026 guidance. Oracle deal up to 2.8GW. The AI power crisis is Bloom’s supercycle. 2030 target: $700*+. $HOOD — $77 today. Expanding into prediction markets, private equity, and crypto. Every new retail investor cycle runs through Robinhood first. 2030 target: $300+. $PENG — $49 today. NASA. US Air Force. US Navy. NVIDIA and AMD partner. Photonic memory optionality completely unpriced. 2030 target: $150+. $KRKNF — $5.30 today. NATO naval spending supercycle just started. $28M in new orders last month alone. The most important underwater defense tech company nobody is talking about. 2030 target: $20+. $AMPX — $17 today. Silicon anode batteries. DoD contracts. Highest energy density battery commercially available. 2030 target: $80+. $EOS.AX — 9.30 AUD today. A$726M pro-forma order book. Full counter-drone stack now complete. NiDAR battle proven against Shahed drones. 2030 target: 50+ AUD. $OPTX — $7.64 today. Space optics quadrupled production. Anduril EagleEye exposure. NDAA domestic sourcing mandates. 2030 target: $50+. $VIVO — $4.65 today. Management guiding $1B revenue by 2029 on assets they already control. 2030 target: $40+. These are the ones I’m holding into the decade.
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
When I see comments like this (and there are a lot) from retail investors: I immediately think they lack the technical depth. I'll walk through each one from $SIVE to $LPK: 1. Photonics TAM goes from $14B -> $154B In just two years time, and it's likely going to keep scaling past 2030 as it's the next generation architecture of choice. It's not going away in 1 year. It's not going away in 3 years, which is why $LITE premiums keep going higher since they're backlogged into 2028. $SIVE supplies CW lasers and is highly tethered to CPO and now pluggable transcivers for 1.6T and 3.2... For expected companies like $JBL, Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, $POET, $MRVL Celestial, and $AMD. This isn't a "trade", it's the core chokepoint and IP holder for the next generation of photonics. And it's a comfortable hold for the next few years as they scale to become the next $LITE. The risk I personally see (since they're already qualified with so many players), it's mainly how much TAM they can capture of the overall optical supercycle. (And potential risks with Win Semi volume ramp, but Win is massive so I can sleep tightly there). As just supplying lasers isn't enough to justify valuation. It's TAM expansion downward into making the entire ELS or entire pluggable transceiver that makes these laser companies so valuable. Then afterward, they can vertically integrating upward for gross margin expansion upward like $COHR into doing the laser fabs or even substrate level. And that in my view is a very asymmetric risk/reward ratio as we've already seen this done with $LITE as they went from $2B to $80B. 2. $LPK - Is the purest exposure, without the messy financials of SKC Absolics, as the next advanced packaging shift for glass substrates. Almost every single major semi company from $INTC to Samsung are adopting glass substrates. $LPK is basically $ASML of this chokepoint, since they supply to ~80% of the global players currently. Yes, there's "trade cycles" for equipment suppliers like $ASML, where if there's more foundry capex, ASML scales up. But if there's downturns, these tend to perform poorly, and don't capture all the volume ramp that happens after. However, if the MC is $650m and they're making $100-200M, revenue per costumer volume ramped, the amount they make from the glass substrate cycle will likely exceed current valuations. And they'll have baseline fundamentals (as more companies adopt the packaging shift), that keeps their valuation up. It's just a waiting game for volume ramp at this point. 3. $AAOI - This is literally $INTC but for America + Photonics. It's like saying Intel is not a long term investment. Guess where all your optical transcivers are made? China. Thailand. Malaysia. If you look at Innolight, Eoptolink, $FN, and others. AOI is building the largest Made in America supply chains for both CW laser fab, as well as 800g, 1.6T assembly. Yes, there are pluggable cycle ups and downs to this as well. There's going to be a wave for 1.6T next year, then CPO cannibalizes pluggables down the road. But since they make the entire supply chain in house, they have extreme optionality for other segments. And like $NVDA older gen-GPUs, there's going to be sovereign DC requirements for older gen pluggables from names like $AAOI. It's likely going to keep rising as it hits that $400m+/month revenue target H2 2026. There's just a lot of different short term volatility along the way like the $600m dilution. 4. $IQE - ??? It's one of the most important players in the Western word for epiwafers. $MTSI went out of their way to pay off IQE's debt because they can't have them going under. $IQE is also supplying to $LITE. The world is currently bottlenecked both on the epiwafer level from Landmark comments and InP substrate levels. Their financials were track but the raw book value, and value they hold to the entire Western supply chain... completely justifies their valuation. And other optical companies will not let their core upstream supply chain go under. As these tens of millions worth of materials would screw up tens of billions worth of downstream products. Again photonics is the next generation architecture required to scale AI. It's not Quantum where it's just "In development". It's literally here and the architecture of choice by $NVDA. I would not be surprised if all of these are a lot higher in 3-4 years time. People who think it's one and done in 3 months time "only because I mentioned it" don't know what they're talking about. Institutions would have bought up the name eventually (like Point 72 on $IQE) and retail would only find out after their valuations are 600% higher. Should really do the research before adding comments like these: These are all forward growth companies that require in-depth supply chain knowledge.
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Sancet@Million_Sancet

This is my current portfolio As I said, I wouldn't sell any positions And I’ve kept my word, the money for the new position in $PENG does not come from my existing investments At the moment, I don’t see better opportunities in the market than what is already in my portfolio At least not at these prices I have on my radar things like $KOPN $DGXX $SOI etc

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The DeFi Investor 🔎
The DeFi Investor 🔎@TheDeFinvestor·
Aerodrome generates more revenue for its token holders than any other DEX. What's interesting is that it surpassed Uniswap in holders revenue despite Uniswap doing 3x more volume.
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Aerodrome
Aerodrome@AerodromeFi·
Aerodrome Slipstream LP Rewards ✈️ • $USDC - $AORA: ~745% • $USDC - $LFI: ~722% • $USDC - $GITLAWB: ~687% • $WETH - $VVV: ~590% • $WETH - $BNKR: ~373% • $cbBTC - $UP: ~212% Deposit liquidity and start earning today 👇
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
$SIVE is now aiming to become the next $LITE, a US photonics giant. They're re-centering their board around US executives + US photonics. So the core board are now: US $GFS Executives and $CITI Executives, with the company run by UC Berkeley grads and $LITE executives. The 3 members leaving were local Swedish/EU. This is just a shift in strategy from focusing on developing local Swedish Semi environments: To dominating the US/global photonics market. I'm not trying to discredit their service/background. But in my view to focus around US/global photonics markets, it's likely optimal to have more US executives. But they should all be proud for helping make $SIVE what it is today.
Selo@Selooo79

@aleabitoreddit Any thoughts on the board members leaving $SIVE ?

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Aerodrome
Aerodrome@AerodromeFi·
Last epoch, Aerodrome generated $1.75M in holder revenue, 180% more than the next best DEX onchain. And with Aero, more revenue streams are coming.
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CK Capital
CK Capital@CKCapitalxx·
I don’t think people fully understand what just happened with $ASTS and T-Mobile. Everyone is treating this like a minor partnership announcement. It is not. Let me explain why this changes everything. Before today $ASTS had AT&T and Verizon. Two of the three major US carriers. T-Mobile was the holdout. The one carrier actively working with Starlink instead. The bear case for $ASTS has always been that T-Mobile stays on Starlink and a third of the US market stays out of reach. That bear case just died. AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile announced a joint venture for direct-to-device satellite connectivity. All three. Together. And the CEO of $ASTS posted one thing in response. “Space-based cellular broadband to every American is coming.” And tagged all three carriers. You do not tag all three carriers if you are not the infrastructure behind all three carriers. Now think about what this actually means for the math. AT&T covers 230 million subscribers. Verizon covers 140 million. T-Mobile just added 130 million more. That is 500 million US subscribers now sitting inside the $ASTS distribution network. Every single one of them reachable without a new device, without a new plan, without any friction at all. The entire US market. Every major carrier. One satellite network. Starlink spent 5 years and 10,000 satellites fighting for every single one of their 10 million subscribers. $ASTS just got access to 500 million existing ones with the flip of a switch. This is not a partnership announcement. This is the entire US wireless industry consolidating around $ASTS as the satellite layer. People are going to look back at today as the moment the thesis became inevitable.
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CK Capital
CK Capital@CKCapitalxx·
684% revenue growth. $52 billion market cap. And I still think $NBIS is undervalued. Q1 revenue came in at $399 million. Up 684% year over year. Beat estimates. Raised 2026 ARR guidance to $7 to $9 billion. New 1.2GW Pennsylvania AI factory just announced. Citizens raised their price target today from $175 to $270. DA Davidson raised from $200 to $250. The market is starting to wake up. $NBIS is guiding $7 to $9 billion in ARR by end of 2026. Apply a 15x multiple standard for high growth cloud infrastructure and the low end of that guidance gets you to a $105 billion market cap. The high end at 20x gets you to $180 billion. Current market cap is $52 billion. And none of that accounts for what comes after 2026. The Missouri campus. The Pennsylvania facility. 3GW of contracted power. 16 owned data centers globally. Microsoft. Meta. NVIDIA as a strategic partner and investor. This is not a company renting AWS capacity and reselling it. They own the infrastructure layer. Physical assets. Power contracts. Real moats. The stock is up massively from where we were talking about it. But when you look at where the revenue is going and what the assets are actually worth the market is still catching up to the fundamentals.
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CK Capital
CK Capital@CKCapitalxx·
Is this not the craziest thing you’ve seen? $VIVO truly looks special. This is all guided by 2026-2029. A 83m stock is guiding to secure 2GW of power. Generate 1b in annual revenue. And generate 200m of annual operating free cash flow.
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
Just to add to the very positive $SIVE news amid MSCI likely tens of millions of inflow in 2 weeks: $AMZN has a new private placement with AlChip. Probably implying design wins with future Trainium. If you don’t remember… AlChip was Ayar’s lead customer. And $SIVE is the primary laser supplier to Ayar. So implications for $SIVE, is enormous piggybacking off of Amazon’s ecosystem growth.
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Serenity@aleabitoreddit

$SIVE 2025 annual report analysis. TLDR: Extremely Bullish. Sivers main growth vector is CPO, but they've TAM expansioned to pluggable transcivers + multiple new qualifications/development. 1. "We are currently seeing great interest... testing our DFB lasers across multiple manufacturers in pluggable transceivers" For pluggable angle, we've seen this with $JBL 1.6T LRO already, but annual report hinted they're developing/qualifying with more hyperscaler suppliers. "Our serviceable markets have now been expanded to include pluggable optical interconnects as well as scale-up and scale-out architectures for co-packaged" (TAM expansion) 2. "Discussions with hyperscalers and pluggable transceiver suppliers indicate a shortage of CW lasers in the coming years" $LITE already signaled CW laser bottlenecks, and they had to buy externally from competitors. So we kinda guessed CW Laser was a bottleneck. And this confirmed it, so was wondering about Win semi. "The partnership announced with high-volume supplier Win Semiconductor in March 2025 now gives us a strong position to meet growing demand" $SIVE likely has capacity locked in with Win from this nuance, which is exactly what I wanted to know. This positions Sivers in the CW laser as both a bottleneck and CPO laser architectural leader. VOLUME PRODUCTION H2 INDICATIONS (BULLISH): 3. "The collaboration positions both companies to address the rapidly growing market for optical AI connectivity, with prototypes to be demonstrated to customers during the first half of 2026 and with the goal of scaling up production by the end of 2026" H1 is more preproduction, H2 production signaled starting with names like $POET. 4. "We are pleased that our largest LIDAR customer will increase production starting in the fourth quarter of 2026" $AEVA start of volume production Q4 with $SIVE = bullish for both. Revenue floor from LIDAR as their CPO scales. 5. Sivers announced a partnership with LIGHTIUM AG to integrate their CW lasers directly onto TFLN wafers. 3.2T+ cycle. (future proofing) FYI no decent investor cares about last year's 2025 financials from development contracts aside from Swedish Media/Locals. Especially when you're forward looking for the 2027-2028 CPO supercycle. But the hint from you can take away from financials + geography that is $NOK is now the high confidence customer of $SIVE. TLDR: -> Win Semi implied capacity lock in during CW laser bottleneck -> Hints of new group of hyperscaler suppliers testing/qualification for pluggable transcivers, which is massive TAM expansion. -> New customers for CW lasers -> Volume production scaling starting H2 for both photonics and lidar.

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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
Not sure if people realized this but unless a thesis completely breaks, companies like $NBIS can keep growing. Just look at $AMZN or $GOOGL over the past 15 years. If people "trim" it often triggers taxes. And a lot of corrections are typically less than those taxes paid. By the time a "50% crash happens", it's probably already compounded hundreds of even thousands of percent. If people need to pay expenses, once you hit 7-8-9 figures, you can always borrow against those assets and keep letting them appreciate. NFA, just personal opinion. You all do you, but it's highly, highly, dependent on the companies you pick. Can't do this with something trash like $IREN. But I do believe $NBIS is positioned to be the next hyperscaler.
Andromeda@SebastianS79509

@aleabitoreddit $NBIS You gave me NBIS at 80 i made my biggest position on it like 100k i know you said its for you an 2-5 year play i dont know if i should trim now or hold . Thank you for this❤️ what is your way for NBIS ?

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Clouted
Clouted@CloutedMind·
So yeah recently looked at Venice and im pretty shocked that Erik Voorhees built @AskVenice with literally the simplest most obvious value proposition which is also kind of THE most valuable proposition EVER: permissionless + private access to AI im actually pretty shocked on how great Venice is, Venice is doing to AI what Ethereum did to finance is my simplest bull case all they need to do is really ramp up marketing to get users Venice has like ~2M users currently even if 1% of openAI weekly 900M active users suddenly give a fuck about privacy on their AI usage, thats another 9 million users which like a 5x for venice they could have some potential future regulatory risks, but we will have to see when it comes to it the vision is super noble
Rob Freund@RobertFreundLaw

ChatGPT allegedly shares your chat query topics, user IDs, and email addresses with Google and Meta, according to a new class action lawsuit filed today.

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Route 2 FI
Route 2 FI@Route2FI·
tldr: $USDC on Hyperliquid now with yield --> buyback of more hyperliquid:native
Hyperliquid@HyperliquidX

Coinbase has announced its plan to activate AQAv2 on USDC as the treasury deployer, with Circle serving as the technical deployer responsible for CCTP and native cross-chain infrastructure. Both Coinbase and Circle have committed to stake HYPE to activate AQAv2. As part of this transition, Native Markets has agreed to terms granting Coinbase the right to purchase the USDH brand assets. With Coinbase, in its role as treasury deployer, sharing the vast majority of reserve yield revenue with the protocol, USDC will become the most aligned stablecoin on Hyperliquid. As a result, canonical outcome (HIP-4) markets will use USDC as the quote asset in a future network upgrade. User and builder feedback has been consistent that fragmentation leads to degraded experience; now, the community no longer needs to choose between liquidity and protocol alignment. The pioneering work of Native Markets in launching USDH as the first production-scale stablecoin sharing yield directly with a protocol in a purely onchain implementation made AQAv2 possible. The learnings and mechanics pioneered by USDH will live on in AQAv2. The Hyper Foundation will give grants to eligible HIP-3 deployers, HIP-1 deployers, and builders who integrated USDH, supporting teams through migration over the next months. These grants reflect an ongoing commitment to teams who choose to build on Hyperliquid and align with the protocol. USDH markets are fully functional but will sunset over time. USDH remains fully backed, with feeless conversions to USDC and fiat available to users during this transition.

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CK Capital
CK Capital@CKCapitalxx·
Thanks for your shares Rakuten. Bottom sold $ASTS
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DeFi Warhol
DeFi Warhol@Defi_Warhol·
Rating my experience with crypto cards ↓ Etherfi → 10/10 Tuyo → 9.5/10 KAST → 9/10 Avici → 9/10 Ready → 8/10 Gnosis → 7.5/10 Payy → 7/10 Cypher → 7/10 Pyra → 6.5/10 Orbit → 6.510 Do you agree?
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CK Capital
CK Capital@CKCapitalxx·
Huge news for $EOS.AX
OptimusDelta@OptimusDelta

$EOS.AX MARSS acquisition update - unpacking it below as this is transformational for the company. Headline order book * EOS standalone - A$509m (up from A$136m end- 2024) * MARSS adds: A$217m * Pro-forma combined: A$726m * ~5.3x order book growth in 17 months The new contract * €102m (£85m / ~A$160m) from an existing Middle East national defence force * Country-wide drone detection and mitigation, NiDAR C2 at the core * ~70% of revenue and cash earned in 2026 and 2027, support tail running another three years * Several additional pipeline opportunities each over $100m flagged by management NiDAR is now battle-proven * Successfully defeated Shahed drone and missile attacks in active conflict * In c-UAS procurement right now, field credibility against Shahed-class threats is the buying signal * That credibility is what unlocks the follow-on pipeline Deal terms revised, mostly in EOS's favour * Upfront US$36m paid today, unchanged * Earnout cap lifted from €100m to €140m * But vendors now need €700m of new orders to hit max (was €500m), so the bar moved up too * First €500m of orders converts at A$7.40 per share. Above that, the next €200m converts at VWAP, so dilution scales with the share price * Three earnout tranches now (90 days, 270 days, May 2027) instead of two Funded with debt, not equity * A$70m drawn from the WHSP secured term loan * No discount placement, no register pain on the acquisition itself * Earnout shares are contingent on MARSS hitting hurdles, not given away upfront The integrator thesis is playing out * EOS now has the full counter-drone stack: detect, decide, defeat * Apollo HELW and remote weapon systems on the effector side, NiDAR C2 on the AI/software side * Software-led acquisition. The C2 layer was the gap and MARSS fills it * This is what distinguishes EOS from a pure hardware integrator

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CK Capital
CK Capital@CKCapitalxx·
I don't talk about $EOS.AX much because I am Long and don't plan on touching the position anytime soon. But this news is too big not to share. EOS just closed the MARSS acquisition and the numbers are genuinely staggering. Order book update: EOS standalone was A$136M at end of 2024. It is now A$509M. Add MARSS at A$217M and the pro-forma combined order book is A$726M. That is 5.3x order book growth in 17 months. And then there is the new contract buried in the release. €102M from an existing Middle East national defence force. Country-wide drone detection and mitigation. NiDAR C2 at the core. 70% of that revenue hitting in 2026 and 2027. Now here is why this is actually transformational and not just a big number. NiDAR has now been battle proven. It successfully defeated Shahed drone and missile attacks in active conflict. In the current c-UAS procurement environment field credibility against Shahed-class threats is the single most important buying signal. That credibility is what unlocks the entire follow-on pipeline. Management flagged several additional opportunities each over $100M. The deal was funded with debt not equity. A$70M drawn from the WHSP term loan. No discount placement. No register pain. And now EOS has the full counter-drone stack. Detect. Decide. Defeat. Apollo directed energy and remote weapon systems on the effector side. NiDAR C2 on the AI software side. This is what separates EOS from every pure hardware integrator in the space. They own the software layer. $EOS.AX
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CK Capital
CK Capital@CKCapitalxx·
This is why i own $DGXX. I’d rather own one of its best proxies than pay this premium.
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CK Capital
CK Capital@CKCapitalxx·
$CBRS IPOs today at $185. $56 billion valuation. The most oversubscribed AI IPO of 2026. Let’s ride $DGXX army. The company building the physical infrastructure Cerebras runs on. 10 year $1.1 billion colocation deal. $2.5 billion in expansion options. $56 billion anchor tenant. IPO day is here.
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