Cedar Grove Capital Management

This year has been a tough one on the single-name front, and many stocks are in a "grab your life jacket" mentality despite good earnings. In our post this morning, we break down our thoughts on 3 stocks: $REAL $KITS.TO $WW, which reported earnings this month, only to see their stocks get thrown out with the bathwater. We include our notes and thoughts going forward on why the market might be wrong to sell these names down so much, especially $REAL. Enjoy. cedargroveresearch.com/p/part-1-q4-ea…

During this recent drawdown, it can be discouraging to see your investment in the red. Because of this, we sent around a quick note on one of our highest conviction positions, Evolv Technologies $EVLV, regarding their recent Q4'25 earnings and guide We once again see management executing well and, in our opinion, guiding conservatively for FY'26. Even with a recent S-3 filing, we believe there is significant upside risk for the year, propelled by the strong tailwinds of weapon detection system adoption across the U.S. Take a look at our quick update below. *Not financial advice. cedargroveresearch.com/p/part-2-q4-ea…

Yesterday morning, we sent around our note for $LNSR after the deal with $ALC was terminated. We liked $LNSR before the deal, and even advocated against taking the deal. Now, could the company get a new lease on life? We argue it could, but more details need to come from a silent management (due to the takeover) and what seemed to be complacency in the eyes of what could have been a good payday for them. See our math below on what scenario would need to unfold to get this stock above the $14/share we originally outlined in Feb'25. cedargroveresearch.com/p/lnsr-termina…

The need to understand 'risk' in investing, especially during these trying times. Many of us like to think that we understand the kind of risk we're taking, but I'd argue we either don't truly know or tend to ignore the points that make an investment risky to begin with. Given that we are in a new war and what seems to be a SaaS apocalypse, I thought it would be good to go over what one of my favorite investors has to say about risk. Howard Marks shared some wisdom a few years ago that has really stuck with me in my investing career, and shared some of his points below with examples of each. Take a look below (free) for these points that could potentially help you better understand risk. cedargroveresearch.com/p/understandin…

Yesterday, $NVO announced it was ending its suit against $HIMS, and the stock rallied hard. Investors were right to shoot first and ask questions later. However, the future of the GLP-1 business still needs to be addressed. While litigation is off the table, for now, the go-forward portion of the business, which is estimated to be >$800M in 2025, could look dramatically different for the next 9 months of the year. Without knowing what $HIMS will charge on top of the list price of $NVO drugs, we can estimate just how much that business will be impacted, depending on how much of its existing GLP-1 base transfers over. Below, we break down the math on how a lower-margin, high-AOV-compounding business could look after it switches to a high-margin, lower-AOV business. The impact could be severe. Have a read. cedargroveresearch.com/p/nvo-s-pressu…

This morning, we released our newest note on the Once Upon A Farm $OFRM IPO. Co-founded by actress Jennifer Garner, the co has seen wild success in its refrigerated/cold-pressed snack pouches. However, nearing mature gross margins, we struggle to see how this unprofitable company can expand much further, even on the heels of solid y/y growth. See why below - earnings on March 12. cedargroveresearch.com/p/ipo-notes-un…

The best "win" for us on a short call, not by return (at least yet), but by the mental satisfaction that this cult stock put us through $HIMS

Yesterday, we released a quick special situation trade based on one of our six investment themes for 2026. This trade is in the restaurant space, and after stock prices in the industry were hammered last year, it looks like sharks are starting to circle stable, asset-light businesses while valuations are depressed. See which one we're talking about in the note below that could lead to a bidding war. cedargroveresearch.com/p/quick-specia…

This morning, we released an updated note on $HIMS after the drama that happened over Friday and the weekend. In this note, we break down how the FDA could go after the co and the downside could be >80% from Friday's close. $NVO also elected to sue HIMS this morning. cedargroveresearch.com/p/hims-napoleo…

On Wednesday, we released our most recent Investors' Corner podcast episode with @Ashwinreads to discuss telehealth and $HIMS The timing couldn't have been more perfect. We talked about ➡️ The issues with their GRAIL test ➡️ The dark side of lab tests and telehealth in general ➡️ International push via ZAVA ➡️ The SNAC patent (perfectly timed) ➡️ And much more Have a listen below for free, and see why within 24hours, it all made sense. cedargroveresearch.com/p/ic-9-talking…

This morning, we released our recent note on a special situation trade regarding Abivax $ABVX and the rumors around a potential buyout. The company has a stellar, de-risked drug asset that is looking to complete maintenance data in Q2'26 and we think the downside is limited. See why we're optimistic below cedargroveresearch.com/p/special-situ…

A little over 4 months ago, we shared a potential take-out trade idea with Lands' End $LE - that trade is now up ~30%, yielding a 115% IRR The best part, there's still juice left! WHP is launching a tender offer that could still yield great returns. cedargroveresearch.com/p/quick-update…

Lands End $LE agrees to be acquired by WHP Stock is up ~23% in pre-market Congrats to those who read our work and entered the trade

This morning, we released a 13-page report on SNAP benefits changes currently taking place and ramping up throughout 2026. These SNAP changes will affect millions of Americans and restrict certain food/bev categories from being purchased. We think that some legacy CPG companies could be negatively impacted by these new changes, and break down what these changes are and their potential impact on these names. Have a look below for the full report. Teaser snippets below. cedargroveresearch.com/p/big-changes-…

Coming out with a ~13 page report tomorrow on a topic that barely anyone is talking about. Negative implications from the OBBBA that partially took effect on Jan 1 and will ramp up over 2026. A few companies we discuss could have sizable exposure. Get it via @cedargrovecm

Yesterday, we sent out a chart of what a $1.5T military looks like in comparison to other countries. This was on the heels of Trump tweeting last week regarding a demand to increase the defense budget by an additional $550B. At that rate, the U.S. would be 3.1x China & Russia combined. While completely unrealistic, it puts into perspective just how much the U.S. is spending, relatively speaking. cedargroveresearch.com/p/cotw-how-a-1…

This AM, we released our most recent notes for part 2 on our "Fear-based" investing theme. Similar to what made us invest in $OWLT (+261% since), we believe that Evolv $EVLV makes for a compelling long-term opportunity to capture more market share in the weapons screening space. See why below. cedargroveresearch.com/p/fear-based-i…

🎙️ IC #8 Lessons From The Past out now. As an investor, it's essential to reflect on your mistakes and identify what you got wrong in order to improve. In this episode, we go into our trades with $HIMS, $GENK, and $LQDA / $REAL for our topic examples Learn on someone else's dime cedargroveresearch.com/p/ic-8-lessons…

This morning, we released our "6 Themes for 2026" and why we think they matter. As a refresher, below are our 7 themes we were monitoring for 2025, which included our watchlist of stocks that mostly performed rather well. Take a look below for this year's takes. cedargroveresearch.com/p/our-6-invest…