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Fat tails adds velocity

Katılım Kasım 2021
195 Takip Edilen62 Takipçiler
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slapper
slapper@ceoslapper·
ahahahah what if bottom is in. would love to find that paper about derivatives shortening cycles. btw crypto is dead so it makes sense to shorten it
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Purge
Purge@Purge_Suddhi·
If you've been here a while you know I don't sleep much. I watch random things on random charts and things. I apologise but the next few days I feel like are just going to be noisy into the end of the week. Ever since Monday the transactions are purely moving on lifted offers
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slapper
slapper@ceoslapper·
@simpelyfe are we really not considering trip in convo? or that's a different league?
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Locu$t Fund$
Locu$t Fund$@LocustFunds·
Everywhere you look the consumer is tapping out $NKE $LULU $AEO $GAP $PLNT $CMCSA $GIS $CPB $CAG $HRL $SHAK $CMG $WEN $WING $PZZA but don’t worry AI/robots don’t need clothing or food they wear steel/aluminum and eat microchips. All GDP growth is now linked to compute 🤡🤣
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Cem Karsan 🥐
Cem Karsan 🥐@jam_croissant·
“The war in Iran was never about Iran. It was about saving the US dollar 💵 . America's 🇺🇸 empire runs on the petrodollar 🛢️where every country must use dollars 💵 to buy 🛢️ . But when America froze $200 billion in Russian assets after Ukraine, it told the world 🌍 the dollar 💵 is a political weapon. So Russia, China, & Iran started building a trade bloc to ditch the dollar 💵 entirely.”
GIF
Ricardo@Ric_RTP

The Yale professor who accurately predicted the entire Iran war just said World War III is about to start with 90% certainty. He explained exactly how it starts, who triggers it, and why NOBODY can stop it. Professor Jiang made 3 predictions in 2024 that all came true: 1. Trump would win the election 2. He would start a war with Iran 3. The US would lose that war Now he has made 8 NEW predictions and every single one is terrifying... The war in Iran was never about Iran. It was about saving the US dollar. America's empire runs on the petrodollar where every country must use dollars to buy oil. But when America froze $200 billion in Russian assets after Ukraine, it told the world the dollar is a political weapon. So Russia, China, and Iran started building a trade bloc to ditch the dollar entirely. These 3 countries cover the entire Asian continent and can build railways connecting their economies while cutting America out. Trump's plan was to bomb Iran's leadership and watch them surrender like Venezuela did in January. But Iran is a mountain fortress with 92 million people and 31 independent armies across 31 provinces each designed so no single strike can wipe them out. 6 weeks in, decapitation failed. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, attacked US bases across the Gulf, and started charging ships $2 million per crossing to fund their war. And here's where it becomes a world war... Russia's grand strategy is the Third Rome doctrine. If Iran falls, Russia's southern border is exposed and both Russia's trade corridor and China's Belt and Road run directly through Iranian territory. Losing Iran means permanently losing access to the Middle East and Africa. So Russia enters the war. When Russia enters, China follows. They reinforce Tehran from east and north, provide financing, and Russia puts Iran under its nuclear umbrella taking tactical nukes completely off the table. Professor Jiang put the probability at 80 to 90%. And while the world watches the Middle East, North Korea is making its move: The US pulled THAAD missile defense out of South Korea for Iran operations. Seoul sits 20 minutes of artillery from the North Korean border with 25 million people exposed. North Korea doesn't even NEED to attack. They just threaten. South Koreans are rich with everything to lose. North Koreans have nothing to lose. Simple extortion. Nobody is coming to help because America is stuck in the Middle East. But the prediction that will BREAK the internet is this one: Trump gets a THIRD term. Professor Jiang laid out two constitutional loopholes. First is Trump runs as VP under Don Jr. or Vance, they win, the president steps down, Trump takes over through succession. The 22nd Amendment bans being elected president more than twice but says nothing about becoming president through succession. The second option is even simpler: By 2028 America is at war on multiple fronts with a draft in effect so Trump invokes emergency war powers and delays the election just like Zelensky did in Ukraine. And the draft is already real. Automatic registration starts in December. Males 18 to 24 are entered into the system automatically. The Department of War literally PUBLISHED the playbook online: - Secure the Western Hemisphere as US territory which explains Greenland, Canada, Venezuela, Cuba, Panama - Force NATO to fight Russia - Strangle China through maritime choke points - Convert civilian factories into weapons production (the Pentagon already told Ford and GM to prepare to STOP making cars and start making munitions) His final advice was genuinely one of the realest things I've heard all year: We will need leaders. Not politicians or billionaires. Average people who knock on their neighbor's door during a blackout and say let us figure this out together. Because when empires collapse, and he believes America's collapses within 10 years, the people who survive built community before they needed it.

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Heart
Heart@heart_·
@moneyfetishist @xbtlupo not sure if he means he boils pasta in same pan where he had guanciale grease? but rest is legit tbh obsession for using guanciale is from Rome people in last 10-15 years, everyone was using pancetta before
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Heart
Heart@heart_·
Please take 20 min of your time (if you're slow) to read all of this, carefully then, please, do nothing of these, close the screen, boil some pasta, fry some bacon, beat some eggs and cheese, make yourself a delicious carbonara.
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moneyfetishist@moneyfetishist

HOW TO AVOID DECISION FATIGUE AND ACTUALLY BE HEALTHY WITHOUT MAKING IT YOUR ENTIRE PERSONALITY I need to address something before we start because I can already see the replies forming no I do not track the vaginal microbiome reports of my partners no I am not Bryan Johnson no I do not have a team of 30 doctors measuring the elasticity of my corneas every morning while I drink a smoothie that costs more than your rent and contains the ground-up hopes of a Peruvian shaman I am a guy who eats well and has a system. that's it. the system is about to sound insane because I'm going to describe it in detail and anything described in detail sounds insane. if I described how you brush your teeth with the same specificity you would sound like a psychopath. "I apply 1.5cm of paste to the bristles at a 45-degree angle and work in small circular motions starting from the upper left molar." you do this every day. it takes 2 minutes. it is completely normal. it only sounds unhinged when you write it down. keep that in mind for everything that follows my last post about this was topic extremely autistic. I am aware. I do in fact go outside. I have friends. I drink soft drinks sometimes. I have conversations that do not involve psyllium husk. I am a normal person who happens to have structured the boring parts of his life so that the interesting parts get his full attention. that is the entire thesis. the system runs in the background. the life happens in the foreground. if you finish this post and conclude I am a joyless machine you have confused the backstage for the show also I've been doing some version of this since I was 14 or 15. this is not something a podcast taught me last year. the principle, remove decisions, keep it simple, make it sustainable, has been the same for over a long time . I just didn't have the vocabulary to explain why eating the same things every day made me feel better than standing in front of a fridge 3 times a day experiencing a philosophical crisis about yoghurt. the vocabulary is new. the habit is old now the average person makes roughly 35,000 decisions per day. 226 of those are about food. not strategy. not capital allocation. whether to eat the yoghurt or the toast every one costs cognitive energy. your prefrontal cortex depletes across the day as decisions stack up. there's a famous observation about judges granting parole at 65% after a meal break and near 0% right before. same judges. same crimes. the only variable was how many decisions they'd made since they last ate. your brain physically degrades its decision quality as the day goes on and every meaningless choice you make before 9 AM accelerates the decline the goal is not to build a routine the goal is to remove decisions here is how I do it MORNING: ZERO DECISIONS I don't eat breakfast. this is a decision I made once and never make again. thousands of decisions eliminated by deciding one time. done instead I drink an iso clear protein drink. 25g protein. tastes good. this matters, everything in your system has to taste good or you'll abandon it. the gym bro drinking chalk mixed with regret quits in 2 months. the person who actually enjoys their shake does it for years. adherence runs on enjoyment not discipline. discipline depletes. enjoyment doesn't the iso clear is made the night before. same time I make my gym shake. both in 3 minutes. morning: open fridge, take it. no blender. no measuring. no thinking. 4-5 minutes saved daily. 24 hours per year. a full day back because you made a drink 12 hours earlier supplements at the same time every day. 20 grams of creatine. yes 20. most people take 5 and wonder why they don't feel anything. creatine is the most researched supplement in existence with the most consistent positive data on strength, cognitive function, and recovery. 20g is the loading protocol that most people do for a week and then drop to 5. I never dropped. my body tolerates it. talk to your doctor if you want but 20g is what I take and I'm telling you the difference between 5 and 20 is the difference between "I think it might be working" and actually feeling it. plus vitamins, whatever else. same spot. taken with the iso clear. one action. decisions were made on Sunday. done SUNLIGHT FIRST 30 MINUTES dead serious your eyes have cells that talk directly to the clock in your brain that controls your entire hormonal day. cortisol, melatonin, energy, sleep, all of it gets set by when your eyes first see real light. morning sunlight produces a cortisol spike that makes you alert and focused. this is the good cortisol. you want it high in the morning and low at night if the first light you see is your phone screen at 7 AM in a dark room you've set the clock wrong and no amount of coffee fixes it. the coffee masks the problem. it does not solve it step outside. 10-15 minutes. costs nothing. does more than any supplement on this list FOOD: SAME THINGS EVERY DAY sounds miserable. it's freedom. no thinking about food 21 times a week. all decisions made once on Sunday. the rest is assembly 6 EGGS DAILY boiled. cooked Sunday. 12 per batch, lasts 2 days. complete protein. all 9 essential amino acids. choline for brain function, your brain needs choline to make the neurotransmitter responsible for memory and focus and most people are deficient. the cholesterol thing was debunked years ago. your liver makes 1-2g daily regardless of what you eat. eggs don't move the needle. why 6? because of the six-pack obviously. the science is secondary. the joke is the reason PROTEIN PORRIDGE buckwheat or spelt flakes (Buchweizen/Dinkelflocken) or oat flakes (Haferflocken). mixed with protein shake, psyllium husk (Flohsamenschalen), chia seeds (Chiasamen) buckwheat isn't wheat. it's a seed. lower glycemic than oats. slower energy release. no 11 AM crash. spelt has more protein than regular wheat and a broader mineral profile psyllium husk is the fibre engine. one tablespoon = 5g soluble fibre. it forms a gel in your digestive tract that does three things simultaneously first it slows glucose absorption which stabilises your blood sugar so you don't get the energy spike and crash that makes you useless at 11 AM and sends you looking for sugar to fix the problem that sugar caused second it feeds your good gut bacteria. your microbiome runs on fibre the way your car runs on fuel. most people eat 10-15g of fibre daily. you need 30-40g. the bacteria that protect your immune system, produce serotonin, and regulate inflammation are starving in most people's guts because the modern diet is fibre-deficient at a level that would horrify any gastroenterologist who looked at it honestly third and this is the one most people don't understand: it lowers LDL cholesterol for all of you who get your health information from TikTok and need this in small words: LDL is the bad cholesterol. it's the stuff that builds up in your arteries and eventually blocks them. when your arteries block, blood can't reach your heart or brain. that's a heart attack or a stroke. you die or you wish you did. lowering LDL means less buildup. less buildup means your arteries stay open. open arteries mean you continue living. that is the entire thing in 4 sentences here's how psyllium does it. your liver produces bile to digest fat. bile is made from cholesterol. normally bile gets reabsorbed in your intestine and recycled back to the liver so the liver doesn't need to make more. psyllium binds to that bile in your gut and carries it out of your body. gone. your liver now needs to pull cholesterol from your blood to make new bile. your blood LDL drops. not because you're blocking cholesterol production. because you're forcing your liver to use more of it. the mechanism is elegant. your body already knows how to lower its own cholesterol. the psyllium just forces the process by removing the bile your liver was going to recycle. average reduction is around 7% which doesn't sound dramatic until you understand that every 1% drop in LDL corresponds to a 1-2% reduction in cardiovascular event risk over time. 7% compounded over decades is the difference between a heart attack at 65 and not having one it also keeps you full longer with fewer calories because the gel expands in your stomach and triggers satiety signals before you've overeaten. non-negotiable in the system chia seeds, omega-3, fibre, protein. they absorb 12x their weight in water. they go in the porridge. you don't taste them. they do their job quietly. the ideal employee base is prepackaged. add-ins portioned Sunday in 7 containers. during the week: grab one, mix fresh, done. 2 minutes. I tried cooking this in bulk. texture after 3 days is somewhere between wallpaper paste and regret. dry prep, mix fresh. solved BERRIES blueberries, raspberries, blackberries. rotate by season. the anthocyanins in berries cross the blood-brain barrier and accumulate in the regions responsible for memory and learning. people who eat berries regularly show measurably slower cognitive decline. they also just taste good which is why they're actually on the list. into the porridge or the shake BROCCOLI most nutrient-dense vegetable per calorie. contains sulforaphane which activates your body's master antioxidant defence system. anti-inflammatory. being studied for anti-cancer properties. plus vitamin C, K, folate, fibre. steamed or roasted with dinner. if you eat one vegetable make it broccoli. if you eat two make the second one also broccoli GREEN TEA OVER COFFEE good gunpowder green tea (Grüntee). green tea has L-theanine which is an amino acid that produces calm focus. caffeine alone gives you alertness plus anxiety plus crash. caffeine plus L-theanine gives you alertness plus calm plus sustained attention. it's measurably better on cognitive tasks than either compound alone coffee spikes cortisol. first thing in the morning you're adding a cortisol spike on top of your natural awakening cortisol. that's the jittery anxious energy people mistake for productivity. green tea doesn't do this also nettle tea (Brennnesseltee) and herbal tea (Kräutertee) throughout the day. hydration with benefits rather than plain water for 14 hours and before someone asks: yes I do drink espresso. I'm not a monster. but my first espresso is around 10 AM. not 7. not the moment I open my eyes. your cortisol is naturally highest in the first 60-90 minutes after waking. drinking coffee during peak cortisol doesn't make the caffeine work better. it makes your body produce less natural cortisol over time because you're supplementing what it was already doing. you build tolerance faster and the coffee stops working. by 10 AM your natural cortisol has dipped and that's when the caffeine actually adds something instead of doubling what's already there. I delayed my first coffee by 3 hours and the same espresso that was doing nothing at 7 AM now actually works at 10. same coffee. different timing. completely different effect SLEEP while we're here: stop trying to sleep more. start trying to sleep better everyone obsesses over 8 hours. 8 hours of bad sleep is worse than 6 hours of good sleep. the quality is the variable not the duration. if you're lying in bed for 8 hours but you're waking up 4 times, never hitting deep sleep properly, and staring at your phone until the second your eyes close, you're getting 8 hours of garbage and wondering why you're still tired the single biggest improvement I made to my sleep was the pillow. I use a Blackroll recovery pillow. I am not affiliated with them. nobody is paying me to say this. I don't care about the brand. I care that it's the first pillow I've used where I wake up without neck tension and actually feel like I slept instead of like I spent 7 hours in a wrestling match with my own spine. the pillow supports your cervical spine in whatever position you sleep in and maintains the alignment that keeps your airways open and your muscles relaxed. most pillows are either too flat or too thick and your neck compensates all night which means your muscles are working while you're supposed to be recovering. bad pillow = 7 hours of low-grade muscle activation that you experience as "I slept 8 hours and I'm still tired" the other basics: room completely dark. I mean completely. tape over the standby lights on electronics. blackout curtains. your skin has photoreceptors. even light hitting your arm can disrupt melatonin production. room cold. 16-18°C. your core temperature needs to drop for deep sleep to initiate. a warm room prevents the drop. no screen 30-60 minutes before bed. the blue light suppresses melatonin. everyone knows this. almost nobody does it. I am also guilty of this sometimes. I'm being honest not perfect improve the quality of the 6-7 hours you're already getting before you try to add an 8th hour of the same bad sleep. the 8th hour of bad sleep is not helping. the first 6 hours done properly would be enough THE JUICE STACK beetroot juice (Rote Beete Saft), minimum 250ml daily. the nitrates convert to nitric oxide which dilates blood vessels, drops blood pressure, and increases oxygen delivery. professional cyclists use this as a legal performance enhancer. the improvement is measurable within hours of drinking it. 3% better endurance in trained athletes, up to 16% in untrained people. 3% sounds small until you realise Olympic medals are decided by less than 1% sour cherry juice (Sauerkirschsaft), mixed with the beetroot so it doesn't taste like a garden accident. tart cherries have the highest natural melatonin of any food plus serious anti-inflammatory compounds. reduces muscle soreness after training. improves sleep quality. the combination of beetroot + cherry gives you vasodilation plus anti-inflammation plus recovery plus better sleep in one drink pineapple juice (Ananassaft), small amount with protein-heavy meals. contains bromelain which breaks down protein in the stomach. helps digestion noticeably within a week. not a lot. just enough coconut water (Kokoswasser), natural electrolytes in ratios closer to human blood plasma than any sports drink. post-training or when dehydrated. the rehydration solution that existed for thousands of years before Gatorade added blue food colouring to sugar water and called it science THE STUFF THAT TASTES TERRIBLE black seed oil, unfiltered, cold-pressed (Schwarzkümmelöl), one tablespoon daily. the anti-inflammatory and immune effects have been documented across dozens of clinical trials. there's a reason every traditional medicine system from the Middle East to South Asia has used this for centuries. it tastes like concentrated displeasure. I chase it with the cherry juice. the combination tastes like something a medieval apothecary would prescribe for a curse. it works unpasteurised sauerkraut (nicht pasteurisiertes Sauerkraut), best probiotic source that exists. billions of live bacteria per serving. the key word is unpasteurised. pasteurised sauerkraut is dead bacteria. tastes the same. does nothing. your gut microbiome communicates with your brain through the vagus nerve. 90% of your serotonin is produced in your gut not your brain. the bacteria in fermented food directly affect your mood, immunity, and inflammation levels. I prepare it as coleslaw, olive oil, apple cider vinegar, seasoning, shredded carrot. side dish instead of punishment. gut thanks you within 2 weeks. my taste buds are the same ever since im 4 or so. my microbiome has better priorities COOKING coconut oil (Kokosöl). high smoke point. doesn't break down into toxic compounds at high heat the way seed oils do. seed oils heated past their smoke point produce aldehydes at concentrations that are genuinely alarming. coconut oil stays stable. eggs. vegetables. everything. I do not put it in coffee because I am not insane. cooking fat. use it as a cooking fat WATER drink more. you are dehydrated right now. your performance is degraded 10-15% and you think this is your baseline because you've been dehydrated so consistently you forgot what hydrated feels like. bottle at desk. bottle in car. bottle by bed. if you have to think about where water is you won't drink enough SUGAR AND SWEETENERS I use artificial sweeteners for most things. I don't move enough daily to justify pure sugar everywhere. construction worker burning 4,000 calories? go ahead. I sit in meetings and stare at spreadsheets. the cherry juice has real beet sugar (Rübenzucker) and that's fine. one drink. small dose. the dose makes the poison. Paracelsus said this 500 years ago CALORIES I don't track them daily. track during cut or bulk phases when precision matters because you're pushing your body in a direction it doesn't want to go. outside those phases: the system does the work. I eat the same things. I know the ballpark. scale plus pattern recognition. not MyFitnessPal and 15 minutes of data entry that makes you want to throw your phone into the ocean. the person who tracks religiously for 90 days then eats pizza for 2 weeks has a worse annual average than the person eating the same things daily and adjusting by trend. consistency over precision. always GET A TRAINER if you have the means. in person. a real human who watches your form and adjusts your programme based on YOUR body. the trainer is the equivalent of hiring an accountant instead of doing your own taxes. technically you can do it yourself. practically you'll make mistakes that cost more than the accountant. a good trainer fixed more in 3 months than I fixed in 3 years alone. if your trainer can't explain why you're doing what you're doing find a different trainer THE SYSTEM everything bought weekly. portioned Sunday. same spots. during the week I assemble. I don't decide. the decisions happened once. execution is automatic same clothes. same order. same spots for keys, wallet, phone. the 4 minutes looking for keys is not 4 minutes lost. it's 4 minutes of cognitive disruption that takes 10 more to recover from because your brain switched modes never follow this like a nazi. wake up late? skip the extra sunlight just go for a walk later in the day. the world doesn't end. the routine serves you. you don't serve the routine. the moment it's a source of stress you've defeated the purpose the goal is not an optimised morning the goal is an empty mind when the real work starts and then when you go out just have fun tbh because the system ran in the background and the foreground is where you actually live that's the point Your welcome

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slapper
slapper@ceoslapper·
@moneyfetishist @heart_ too long pasta 2 red of egg x person mix it with a lot of pecorino and pepper till it becomes creamy take GUANCIALE NO BACON HOW DO YOU COOK GUANGIALE take a PAN make it very hot then put guanciale and put the fire very low and wait
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slapper
slapper@ceoslapper·
@LocustFunds how do you manage a naked short like this, i'm talking about sizing, do you add on the way down, size so small that is irrelevant? i would love some tips, i noticed that i make mistakes when i short tops even if i'm right
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Locu$t Fund$
Locu$t Fund$@LocustFunds·
@xbtlupo SPY +3% in 3 days, these markets are smoking crack
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Locu$t Fund$
Locu$t Fund$@LocustFunds·
Short $SPX, not options. I don’t waste premium on the unknown but via $SPXL. I like the rebalance it favors me and of course the leveraged shares, no premium burn.. I can stay solvent longer than you can stay bullish. Position size matters. See pinned post. Have a good weekend
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Sokio
Sokio@Sokio8D·
who do you want to see next on the podcast you can only say trip if you also say someone else
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Cem Karsan 🥐
Cem Karsan 🥐@jam_croissant·
⚠️ Prepare for #3️⃣ 1/US Navy 🚢 escorts global commercial ships 🛳️ through Hormuz. 2/Iran 🇮🇷 fires 🔫💥 @ US 🇺🇸 ‘Humantarian Envoys” & US 🇺🇸 is forced to “respond defensively” ⏭️Iran now is seen 👀 as starting a NEW conflict. So… 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👉US 🇺🇸 is subtly no longer “the aggressor” 👉 No new War Powers clock 🕰️ starts, because the US 🇺🇸 is acting ‘defensively’ & ‘did not initiate hostilities’. 👉 Trump 🃏has increased midterm political cover for the likely drawn out conflict that proceeds… 👉 Europe 🇪🇺 + other allies now have political cover to support the US 🇺🇸 conflict.
Jim Bianco@biancoresearch

Big news from Trump about 20 minutes ago (and ~90 minutes before the market reopens on Sunday night in Asia): The US will start Naval Escorts called "Operation Protect Freedom" tomorrow! As I noted in the repost below (from Friday), the US was "stuck" until the circumstances changed. It now seems they are about to change tomorrow! Some possible outcomes (hoping for #1 or #2, fearing #3 and #4) 1. US escorts ships out, Iran does nothing, this is over 2. US escorts ships out, Iran fires on ships that the US can repel, this is over 3. US escorts ships out, Iran fires on ships and hits them, or they hit a mine. The image of burning ships is a disaster for the Navy and the US, especially if it's a US warship. 4. The US keeps threatening to do this, but the Navy never actually does it (akin to them not firing on the 40 or so fast boats in the Strait today when Trump said they would a several days ago). The US can be criticized for talking a big game with little action.

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Sim
Sim@simpelyfe·
Bucket size and participant type don't have a deterministic relationship. A pattern of small-bucket CVD rising first could equally indicate: - Institutions deploying algorithmic execution (fragmented small orders by design) - Smart money using block splits to avoid tipping their hand - Retail FOMO (market orders on news)—but also potentially institutions looking like retail through intentional fragmentation You are incorrectly assuming bucket size proxies participant sophistication—when in reality, institutions often deliberately create small buckets to mask their positioning. I'd go so far as to say retail has a propensity to take in blocks moreso than institutions.
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slapper@ceoslapper·
@simpelyfe if size is not an issue, i can help you sell it!
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Sim
Sim@simpelyfe·
Built a DE L/S portfolio optimizer and tested with monthly rebalancing over 240-days of data. 88% of the generated indices (44 out of 50) were profitable with an average monthly return of 6%. The detail that blows me away is 88% probability of +EV turns with only one rebalance a month -- without smart execution or rebalancing based on market volatility and realized beta shifts (i.e. rebalancing reactively) usually delivers returns reminiscent of a monte carlo simulation. I think I might've created a unicorn.
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Locu$t Fund$
Locu$t Fund$@LocustFunds·
@Globalflows Our time here is finite, time w family is invaluable. You don’t need to spend 100 hours a week locked in to create alpha. Follow the dealers they give us everything we need. Being able to see the unsealable provides the edge that we need. Never apologize the sharks never will.
GIF
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dax@zeroxrrrr·
at the same time the current lack of interest on bidding here, and the slow grind higher still shows that there is not much $ flowing in yet, and a move higher from here could amplify and sustain a rally... just an interesting spot where return seems to be worth the risk
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dax
dax@zeroxrrrr·
can't deny the momentum building on this btc move
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Roberto Gomez Cram
Roberto Gomez Cram@rgomezcram·
Polymarket prices are highly accurate in predicting future events. The source of that accuracy is less obvious. In a new working paper, we find it is not the “wisdom of crowds,” but a small minority of informed traders. Fewer than 3% of accounts appear to drive price discovery; most perform no better than chance. The majority generates most of the volume but little of the information, effectively funding the informed minority. Check the paper here: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
Roberto Gomez Cram tweet media
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puter@puterw0rld·
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