Enzo Ceroni

U.S. BLACK FRIDAY SALES HIT RECORD HIGH U.S. online Black Friday sales reached a record $11.8 billion, up 9.1% from last year, according to Adobe Analytics. Adobe expects Americans to spend $5.5 billion on Saturday and $5.9 billion on Sunday. Salesforce reported $18 billion in total Black Friday spending, with luxury apparel and accessories among the top sellers. Despite higher spending, shoppers bought fewer items due to rising prices. In-store traffic was quieter as many consumers worried about overspending amid inflation and economic uncertainty. Cyber Monday is projected to lead the season with $14.2 billion in online sales, Adobe said.

For the record. I have nothing against the University of Michigan's inflation expectations survey per se. However, the idea that the Fed would hinge its monetary policy on a survey driven by subjective feelings and political bias is rather troubling. It’s hard to believe that such a variable, especially one that’s more about sentiment than substance, should take center stage in shaping policy. As for Wall Street lack of desire to call the Fed on this own goal, should not surprise anyone. With long lags, over 2 yrs, in monetary policy and 5-year forward rates poised to dip below 2%, as the federal funds rate sits at 4.33% and quantitative tightening continues unabated with r* at 2.75%, perhaps it's time we reconsider giving the Fed so much leeway in dictating interest rates. The Fed’s inability to be proactive in the face of a growth scare and new tariff policy show a lack of prudence and humility. Fed is once again fighting the last war. Relying on a survey rooted in emotion and political bias seems a precarious foundation for such critical economic decisions and yet, after Waller and Powell’s speeches yesterday, it seems the Fed has put all of its chips on this flawed survey. Shame.

"Your country is in big trouble. You're not winning You have a damn good chance of coming out okay because of us. You haven't been alone. We gave you, through [our] stupid president, $350b... If you didn't have our military equipment, this war would've been over in two weeks."

We close here (5887), all hell breaks loose: this is the critical Medium Term CTA threshold level, below it there is up to $200BN in sell orders