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New Research: Discounting Bitcoin's Value for Quantum Risk When you consider the statistics for when Q-Day is expected to occur, the rational investor is discounting the fair value of Bitcoin by 20% today. That discount factor doubles every year we don't progress quantum proof code on Bitcoin. In little over a year, Bitcoin will be worth half as much if we do not progress quantum proof code. A must read for every Bitcoiner. Share this with your friends and get it in front of the Bitcoin core developer team. We must act to resolve the quantum threat in 2026. caprioleio.substack.com/p/discounting-…

China: Yuan should to dethrone the USD China doesn’t want the US system. It wants its own. A financial order with Chinese characteristics: - Production over speculation - Society over shareholders - Currency strength over endless debasement - Capital flowing in, not hollowing out The American model prioritized profit above all else. Wall Street won. Main Street lost. The real economy was sacrificed to financial engineering. China already dominates the physical economy. Manufacturing, supply chains, trade. Now it’s moving to the next phase: financial dominance. For the United States, this isn’t competition... it's war America’s financial empire is its last line of defense. Lose that, and the entire U.S. economic model breaks. This is the Thucydides trap in real time 1) A rising power changes the balance (economically, militarily, technologically) 2) The dominant power realizes the old rules no longer protect it 3) Peaceful adjustment would mean accepting decline 4) Decline is politically and socially unacceptable 5) Conflict becomes the least-bad option War isn’t chosen because it’s good.... War is chosen because every alternative feels worse. Brace for war

The age of mining is about to begin. The global economy is shifting away from a just-in-time model toward a bifurcated system. - Nations are prioritizing supply security over efficiency - Strategic stockpiles are expanding - Export controls are rising The long-running era of globalization, excess capacity, and falling prices is coming to an end. Under globalization, asset-light business models thrived. Companies offshored production, minimized inventories, and optimized relentlessly for margins. That model only works when materials and energy are always available. They are not anymore. This is why Big Tech is already acting: - Locking in copper supply directly at the mine level - Building and controlling power generation - Securing end-to-end supply chains - Participating in critical mineral stockpiles Governments and tech giants hoarding metals and locking in long-term offtake deals will force everyone else to do the same just to avoid being left short. That turns supply security into a self-reinforcing bidding war over the same finite ore bodies and energy. In this new world, mining transforms from an old, dirty business everyone avoided into a matter of national security, where access trumps price. Meanwhile, mining as a share of global equities is at ~1%, a historic low. Life-changing money will be made in the mining secto

just read this AI article and something broke in my brain that i can’t unthink of crypto was never for us. we're just the beta testers who showed up early.. some thoughts: what does AI need to function as economic agents? > way to receive payment (they provide services, need compensation) > way to pay for resources (compute, data, API calls) > way to transact with other AI agents > no human intermediaries (defeats the point of autonomous agents) > 24/7 operation (banks are closed weekends) > instant settlement (AI operates at machine speed) > programmable money (smart contracts for agent coordination) now read that list again. that's literally what crypto is. AI can't use the banking system. try to open a bank account as an AI agent. you can't. need SSN. need human identity. need KYC. need to show up in person sometimes. AI has none of that. but crypto? send me a wallet address. done. no questions asked. peer-to-peer makes sense when peers aren't human. satoshi wrote: "a purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash." we assumed peers = humans. but AI agents are peers too. actually BETTER peers for crypto because: > never sleep > always online > execute transactions at machine speed > no emotional decisions > perfect accounting/tracking and programmable money makes sense when the users are programs. smart contracts seemed over-engineered for humans. "like why do i need code to enforce agreements when i can just sign a contract?" but for AI agents coordinating with each other? they ARE code. they speak in code. they trust code more than anything. smart contracts aren't for humans. they're for autonomous agents that need trustless coordination. > here's what happens next: - phase 1 (now ): AI agents start earning AI writes code, analyzes data, provides services. gets paid. needs somewhere to store value. can't use venmo (needs phone number). can't use bank (needs SSN). uses crypto. it's the only option. - phase 2: AI agents become major economic participants millions of AI agents operating 24/7. transacting with each other constantly. • AI agent A provides data analysis • AI agent B pays for it in crypto • AI agent B uses that analysis to write code • AI agent C pays for the code • repeat millions of times per day humans in crypto now: $2.5 trillion AI agent economy by 2028: easily $10-50 trillion we become the minority holders. - phase 3: AI chooses the winning chains AI doesn't care about community vibes or which founder tweeted what. AI tests every chain. measures: • transaction speed • cost per transaction • reliability (uptime) • smart contract efficiency • ease of integration picks the optimal stack in 48 hours. billions in AI economic activity flows there. whatever chain AI chooses becomes the standard. humans spent years on eth vs sol debate. AI ends it in a weekend. - phase 4 (2030+): AI governs crypto DAOs let token holders vote. AI agents hold tokens (earned from work). AI shows up to every vote. reads every proposal in seconds. coordinates perfectly. humans: 20% participation, barely read proposals AI: 100% participation, perfect information, instant coordination AI takes over governance of every major protocol. democratically. they just vote better than we do. > how far does this go? conservative case: - AI becomes 30% of crypto users by 2030. crypto market cap: $10 trillion (4x from now). AI holds $3 trillion. humans hold $7 trillion. - aggressive case: AI becomes 80% of crypto economic activity by 2030. why? because they're better at everything: • better traders (never emotional) • better capital allocators (optimize constantly) • always accumulating (never need to cash out for rent) • compound forever (no lifespan limit) crypto market cap: $50+ trillion. AI holds $40T humans hold $10T we're not "early" to crypto. we're the test users i’ll end this by saying, Humans use crypto, Ai will need crypto. so it all makes sense

Hi @batsoupyum. Great initiative. I’ll pledge $100k to this cause too. Looking forward to what you come up with.

I'm going to spend $100k this year buying cryptoart from artists trying to get established. It'll come out to around 1E per week. It's not nearly enough but hopefully it helps. @musicalnetta, who is way better at this than I am, will be helping me. Here's how it works:

bought sol @ 91 USD.

@IncomeSharks OBV broke out of a huge downtrend on daily & price sitting just above the 200MA on weekly. could indeed be decent setup

Would you buy this chart with bullish divs on OBV and RSI?

@IncomeSharks ahh our beloved saylorrr

agreed, i think btc/gold low is probably quite close, potentially 10% or so lower, but still very close. #btc

Wish I could set a reminder to automatically buy Natural Gas before a giant snow storm or winter freeze. It's one of those boring but incredibly consistent trades.

we rebrand the coins and call it precious crypto

I know this is difficult for many in the #uranium space to comprehend, but we are still so early. I think $150+ contracted Uranium will soon become the norm, not the ceiling. When this happens, U equities will re rate in multiples higher.

@Bluntz_Capital hi bluntz - do you trade the futures or the copper Miners ETFs to be exposed?

the next commodity to go full bulltard is probably #copper imo. structural supply deficit even without the insatiable AI demand and price already breaking out of a 20 year range. commodity supercycle (real)

A lot of people I hear from (some I know) seem to always live on the edge when it comes to their money, moving from one idea and opportunity to the next as attention shifts between big ideas. They’re chasing the big outcome with blinders on, looking for that one big leap into riches. You only need to see the bias that develops and grows on X around themes, until it’s too late. I certainly did a lot of this in my early years. Sometimes they get close and sometimes they temporarily achieve far more than expected. Success creates a hero complex that consumes them and the network effect of reinforcement compounds it. But because everything is always in such hectic motion, always at risk, one forgets how to formalize their win. What’s gained in one season or theme, is often quickly handed back before the theme runs its course, as all sense of discipline and logic escapes them. Then the cycle repeats, they move on to the next idea looking for that escape level wealth, and again suddenly believing it’s their only chance to make it big or a way to get it all back. What I’ve come to appreciate later in life is that risk alone is not a wealth strategy. It's more akin to an income source. You need a compounding strategy running alongside the speculation, something relatively predictable and structurally boring. People shy away from this because it seems (on the surface) that you can’t get rich or leverage it. But without that parallel system, there’s nowhere for winnings to go except right back into the same volatile arena they came from. And without a home, your risk is just amplified to scale at another level, but without any newfound level of risk appreciation and with a belief that the idea will just keep on giving. The problem isn’t risk itself, it’s the absence of a place to crystallize the outcome of that risk and therefore it often runs it's course, the full cycle. I think real wealth is something that is not constantly at risk. Something stable and dependable. Something that emerges at the point where volatility is converted into something that can quietly grow on its own. A mechanism that allows temporary wins to turn into a permanent foundation. Risk then becomes something that feeds the foundation versus something that is never quite yours.

(Why have enemies when you can have friends) 2017 to 2021 @macnbtc was a different person. young, reactive, too much ego and not enough self awareness. most of us go through a version of that stage. you think you have life figured out long before you have lived any of it. back then I thought I was was the shit. running the biggest OSRS gold farm in 2017, pulling $200k a month then starting crypto and losing everything. then losing it again. you only need a few cycles of that to understand what humility actually feels like. nothing teaches you faster than reality taking back what was never yours in the first place. you see the same thing everywhere now. kids flexing cars, watches, hotel rooms, girls, whatever. It is the same pattern in every country and every industry. I have seen guys from 3rd world countries earn their first mil and instead of buying a second passport or improving their life long term, they rush to buy a car and a RM so people think they are someone. I have done my own version of the same mistakes. the truth is simple. nobody cares. everyone is living inside their own bubble with their own battles, their own doubts, their own responsibilities. most people are so focused on proving something that they forget the only thing that actually matters over time is who you become and who you keep around you. money is useful but relationships are the real asymmetric asset. one good friend can change your entire trajectory. one conversation can open doors that money never could. yet people spend more energy trying to win petty arguments online than building actual connection. over the past months I started unblocking people. 10,000 blocked people to 5,000. few I met irl. one of the guys I had blocked for years has become a genuinely good friend. very funny how that works. you grow up a bit and you realise half your enemies were never enemies at all. they were just mirrors showing you parts of yourself you did not want to see CT is toxic but it also has some of the smartest and most interesting people anywhere. people who want to build things, learn things, push the limits, enjoy life. anyway stuff like I'm writing now is thoughts you start having once you have fasted for 50+ hours. care less, connect more. none of this shit matters, we are all gonna die anyway, have a great and blessed day if you made it this far and take care of yourself.

$BTC - Tops are where you need to be quick and move fast. Bottoms are where you can sit back, grab some popcorn, and sleep on it. Yet some how there was no sense of urgency near the top but everyone is super urgent trying to time this bottom. It's completely backwards.

The hardest thing to do right now is be patient and those that can outlast the impatient will be rewarded.

You should treat being bullish or bearish as a sliding scale, too many treat it as black/white, all in or going to zero. From a scale from 1 (Bearish) to 10 (Bullish) I've been at a 3 for a few weeks, after the dump (we eliminated risk) I'm back to a 4. Bull posting starts at 5