Chad

New #Bitcoin blog is now live! What are the cycles of bitcoin's growth? Are we on track with past cycles? Full blog here: x.com/ARKInvest/stat… A thread below...

Senator @CynthiaMLummis ‘s BITCOIN Act of 2024 gains momentum into 2025 after a Trump victory. If such a bill were to pass, it would bring America to the forefront of global monetary and financial innovation in the 21st century. Full newsletter here:

Post-quantum bitcoin has an “official” deadline: 10 years.

New blog went live last week: "#Bitcoin Cycles, Entering 2025," analyzing its market structure throughout its halving, calendar, and price cycles. You can find it here: ark-invest.com/articles/analy… Few cool charts that didn't make the cut: 1/ Measuring bitcoin's reward-to-risk ratio (RRR) per calendar year. Think of this as a Sharpe ratio that doesn't account for risk-free rate, dividing cumulative mean returns by cumulative standard deviation since the start of each year. 5 out of the 13 years sampled have an RRR below 1, which is usually suggestive that an investment's reward surpass its risk.

Taking the geometric means of the various yearly performance multiples based on their RRR value range, we can compare 2024 to different cohorts of risk-adjusted returns. Already, 2024's multiple exceeds that of the average negative years (red), the average of "low yet positive" performers (purple), and, just recently, the average of "medium" performers (blue). All data by Glassnode.

For other interesting charts, don't forget to read our latest blog: ark-invest.com/articles/analy…

Objectively, the three greatest documentarians of all time are: Werner Herzog. Errol Morris. Adam Curtis.

Based on @dpuellARK’s on-chain analytics and analysis, the bull market in bitcoin is in good shape. After its halving in April, growth in the supply of bitcoin dropped to 0.9%, below the long term growth in the supply of gold for the first time!

Bitcoin’s halving occurs roughly every four years, often aligning with early bull markets. The April 19 halving brought volatility, but performance aligns with past cycles, fueling our optimism for the next 6–12 months. @dpuellARK explains in a new blog. ark-invest.com/articles/analy…

New #Bitcoin blog is now live! What are the cycles of bitcoin's growth? Are we on track with past cycles? Full blog here: x.com/ARKInvest/stat… A thread below...

5/ The Calendar Year Cycle: The Averages Indeed, just after the US Presidential Election, bitcoin performance in 2024 broke the average of all years between 2011-2023, as well as the average of all years when a halving occurred. If we were to match any of these averages at year-end, price could reach anywhere between 104k and 124k.

For this and more, please visit the full blog at: ark-invest.com/articles/analy…

The October issue of The Bitcoin Monthly is now available! Read at ark-invest.com/crypto-reports… and enjoy insights from @dpuellARK 👇

Now that #Bitcoin crossed cycle highs, let's look back at what October had set up for us right before the election. The Bitcoin Monthly is now live. A thread below. ark-invest.com/crypto-reports…

Historically, M2 money supply leads inflation by 18 months, setting up expectations for a continued drop in YoY CPI. This could push the Fed to continue easing, favoring risk-on asset prices.

For this and more, please visit and subscribe to The Bitcoin Monthly here: ark-invest.com/crypto-reports…

Deregulation (defanging the SEC, FTC, and others), government spending cuts (making room for the private sector), tax cuts, and a focus on technologically enabled innovation are likely to turbocharge the US economy more powerfully than during the Reagan Revolution.

Three electoral customs that I believe will be forever transformed by this election, in order of conviction: 1. Change in the gold standard for information aggregation: from polls to prediction markets. 2. Change in the gold standard for candidate facetime: from questionnaire debate to long conversational podcast. 3. A decline in effective October surprises: from controlled distribution to social media front-running everything, especially because of point 1 above. And this is without AI and crypto becoming electorally mainstream on a technological level. Can't wait for the next one.

Dat all-time high, tho...