Chamath Palihapitiya

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Chamath Palihapitiya

Chamath Palihapitiya

@chamath

God is in the details.

In the Arena Katılım Nisan 2007
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Chamath Palihapitiya
Chamath Palihapitiya@chamath·
the maintenance era is ending. the rewrite era is starting. an insurer we worked with replaced an $8M/year legacy vendor with a purpose-built system. $21M saved over four years. if we can hep, please ping us sales@8090.ai
8090@8090_Factory

most enterprise software costs more to maintain per year than it cost to build. that's the entire business model of your current vendor. every modernization project in the last decade has one of two outcomes. it goes 2-3x over budget and ships late. or it gets cancelled and the legacy system stays. why? nobody can extract the business logic from the old system. it lives in vendor heads. in stack overflow threads. in a comment from 2014 that says "don't touch this." AI just broke that model. an insurer we worked with replaced an $8M/year legacy vendor with a purpose-built system. $21M saved over four years. the maintenance era is ending. the rewrite era is starting. and it's faster than your CFO's last modernization RFP. reach out to us sales@8090.ai to vent about your current vendor.

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Chamath Palihapitiya
Chamath Palihapitiya@chamath·
If your AI stack is single player, you’re driving into a brick wall. Our Software Factory is collaborative and multi-player at every stage and by design. As you build complex enterprise workflows, this is a P0.
8090@8090_Factory

month 3: your Cursor rollout looks like a win. month 9: your auditor asks about a payment retry rule that changed in March. the engineer who wrote the prompt is on PTO. the AI has no memory of why. your AI is alone at the table. The AI Single-Player Problem.

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Chamath Palihapitiya
Chamath Palihapitiya@chamath·
It’s hard to understand what the other 39% are thinking. Once you drive a Tesla, it’s like driving an all-seeing sensor with a super computer behind the scenes doing all the decision making, driving and navigation. Also, you never have to go to a gas station.
Elon Musk@elonmusk

Tesla

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Chamath Palihapitiya
Chamath Palihapitiya@chamath·
@Object_Zero_ @gustaf What probability do you assign that an AI physics model, in the next 18 months, finds a new material that transcends silicon and changes the equation?
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Object Zero
Object Zero@Object_Zero_·
This 100MW data center in UAE is the largest solar powered datacenter in the world. There are currently 1,300 data centers in the world that are bigger than this one, but this one is the largest solar powered one. That’s 10 square kilometres of solar panels you can see. The datacenter itself is 0.02 square kilometres, so a solar powered datacenter is ~500x larger than a data center using any other form of power. A five hundred times larger site. UAE has some of the highest solar irradiance anywhere on Earth, it is an inhospitable desert. Averaging 9.7 hours of sunlight per day with average irradiance above 2,200 kWh/m^2. If you build this somewhere else, you need more solar panels because your irradiance will almost certainly be lower. Even if the world had an infinite supply of free solar panels, solar power will not be free. Anyone who has ever done major capital projects, who looks at where data centers need to be in the next 5 years and the next 10 years… we know it aint solar. Sorry. You struggle to even build a train track that’s 100 miles long and 10ft wide anywhere in the West, there is zero chance of build 100 square mile solar farms for GW compute. This is why people are talking about space compute. Deploying into space is one strategy to solve the constraints. But there are faster and more scalable strategies, that get you to mass deployment of multi GW data centers. There are strategies that also allow you to power the 10 billion robots and their newtonian actuators, that immediately follow the inference demand cycle. Step back and look at the full cycle of this industrial revolution… There will be billions of chips, but there will be trillions of actuators. This biggest part of this revolution is the embodiment cycle, and it’s big by a factor of 20 or 50x over the stuff that comes before it. There is no analogy in human history for the scale of this economy, of the demand it will place on energy and commodities. The humans own the Earth, and if you exist inside their legal system, they won’t let you turn the surface of their planet into glass. But they do want your chips and your actuators to serve their needs and desires. There is a way to do all of this, and so it will happen.
Object Zero tweet media
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Chamath Palihapitiya
Chamath Palihapitiya@chamath·
How much data did we need before we understood the harmful societal effects of smoking and implemented restrictions? Actually, it was a lot. A lot of data was needed because the cigarette companies wanted to milk their golden goose as long as possible. The cost of paying class action lawsuits in the future was far less than the cash they could make in the moment. This is the same incentive today with social media and their app makers. Some parents try to organize their other classroom parents together in a coalition to limit the apps. This seems to work but it’s so few and far between. A broad societal moratorium on social media for people under 16yo diminishes NOTHING and probably helps millions and millions of kids and then these kids as they enter adulthood. It would also help parents. I, personally, have strict social media rules for myself and my kids. And I will keep pushing back on my kids when they ask for instagram because that’s my job as their dad. But having a broad moratorium would make the lives of all parents far simpler and, in hindsight, will be proven as the right public health policy thing to have done.
Jonathan Haidt@JonHaidt

The preponderance of the evidence gets ever more preponderant: here's a meta-analysis of longitudinal studies, in JAMA. Important finding for setting 16 as the age minimum:

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Cado
Cado@avocadoking88·
@chamath I think, in part, it’s massively inflated because of bad incentives in big co’s Everyone is getting screamed at to be “AI-forward” or they’ll be part of the next RIF People burning tokens just to be at the top of a dashboard Show me the incentive and I’ll show you the result
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Chamath Palihapitiya
Chamath Palihapitiya@chamath·
Well, one fucked up and non obvious part of the answer could be that certain folks are paying massive amounts to them to distill the model via API. But the revenue is so worthwhile that they could stop it but instead allow it because it allows them to stay ahead in the funding race by showing evermore increasing revenue. Aka my enemy’s enemy is my friend.
Doug Colkitt@0xdoug

I’m really struggling to see how the back of the envelope math on this works out… There are generously 4 million characterized “software workers” in America. That’s pretty broad and includes a lot of people who aren’t really classical engineers don’t produce that much code. That comes out to nearly $1k per month of average Claude spend across every dev in America. Yes, there’s some international usage, but it can’t be that much. Yes there is some non software Cowork usage, but that doesn’t use that many tokens. Yes, some non engineers are using Claude to vibe code, but I really doubt many are spending hundreds per month on. Even if we assume 50% of all software workers are using Claude, that comes out to $2k spend per month per Claude user. Thats 10X more than the highest tier Max subscription. So almost all of Anthropics revenue has to be API billing So the only explanation is that something like 20%+ of software engineers are not only Claude users but on API billing and regularly spending thousands per month. At $5/m Opus tokens that means the average API user has to be going through something like 25 million tokens per day. *OR* the other possibility is API revenue is heavily power law dominated. Maybe there’s just something like 100k super users who are making up the majority of the revenue. For that to work the typical super user would have to be spending on the order of $50k/month and guzzling nearly 1 billion tokens per day.

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Chamath Palihapitiya
Chamath Palihapitiya@chamath·
Pod!!!!
The All-In Podcast@theallinpod

🚨 POD UP! -- OpenAI misses targets, but Codex gains on Claude -- Elon vs Sam Altman trial, Brockman's diary -- Why AI cybersecurity is the next major market -- Hyperscalers show huge revenue and bigger Capex -- Retatrutide and peptides go mainstream (0:00) Bestie intros (3:05) OpenAI misses targets, Codex gains on Claude (20:02) AI cybersecurity: a market that's about to explode (31:03) Elon vs Sam Altman lawsuit (41:00) Big tech smashes earnings, Capex explosion (52:44) Vibecoding nightmare: AI deleted someone's codebase (58:33) Retatrutide craze: peptides go mainstream (1:06:34) Friedberg's Supreme Court experience

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GREG MARTIN
GREG MARTIN@GregMartinLive·
@chamath Hell yeah @chamath Great reading for tonight. Cannot wait for Central Banking Deep Dive
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Chamath Palihapitiya
Chamath Palihapitiya@chamath·
A good example of why it’s time to rewrite all of your enterprise software. This specific company is a public, multi billion dollar revenue company who manages critical care for millions of patients. Lots of regulations, lots of safety and care required. Vibe coding doesn’t work here - 8090 was brought in and using Software Factory, it’s been a slam dunk.
8090@8090_Factory

A durable medical equipment supplier had orders taking a week to clear. Manual entry, supplier handoffs, payer rules in spreadsheets. We replaced the patchwork with one custom application built around their workflow. 85% of orders now run automatically. The operations team works exceptions, not data entry. sales@8090.inc

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signüll
signüll@signulll·
~$10m is the sweetest spot for wealth. beyond that it’s marginal returns & you don’t feel hungry.
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Dr Mike
Dr Mike@MJIskander·
@chamath Ouch, sorry man. I have AI clean up my ideas, but won’t anymore. Still a big fan. 🥲
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Chamath Palihapitiya
Chamath Palihapitiya@chamath·
Money is starting to flow downhill - a critical observation for the next few years. The Mags may make all the money but they are spending it faster than they can make it. Their free cash flows are cratering. Best to follow the money and see who’s getting it. In this case, it’s following the AI trade and, more specifically, the data center and power economies. Make money from capital light business models like ads and software, then redirect it to asset heavy, traditional infrastructure companies. A complete reversal from the last 20 years is underway.
Chamath Palihapitiya@chamath

Blockbuster earnings from the Mags…BUT the equal weight is massively outperforming the weighted index today. 🤔

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Chamath Palihapitiya
Chamath Palihapitiya@chamath·
The winner in all of this AI token spend isn’t: 1. More revenue growth 2. Less OpEx It’s: 1. Leisure time - go home early, work on a side gig, play video games etc etc etc My suspicion is that people are using blower token budgets to do their job in less time. Not so more work in the same time. This may change but humans are not motivated to do more work and see upside accrue to a few. Take this to the bank as Wall Street starts demanding specific data about AI enhancements over these next 18 months.
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Chamath Palihapitiya
Chamath Palihapitiya@chamath·
David Hammons is the most important artist in the world. The boundaries he pushed in his art both explored the past but also foretold the future. The best artists all seem to achieve this. I had the chance to spend a morning with David in his Brooklyn studio in 2014 and he gave me an incredible secret. When I asked if I could take a photo with him, he said no. He asked me to get on the ground with him and he looked at me and said, “I say no to everyone. Remember with your heart…not with your camera.” I’ll never forget that. I still remember what I saw in his studio, how he treated me and others, how creative he was. In other words, it worked. It seemed so blithe but so many years later, none of us are as present as we used to be. It’s all selfies and put-on shots for social media. Anyways, if you are in NYC between May 1 and June13 and you like art, please consider dropping by White Cube for an incredible show that looks back at David’s incredible career. He’s 82 now and still going strong.
Chamath Palihapitiya tweet mediaChamath Palihapitiya tweet media
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Dr Mike
Dr Mike@MJIskander·
@chamath Money isn’t “flowing downhill,” it’s being redeployed. Mag 7 FCF isn’t cratering—they’re front-loading capex to build the AI rails. Software prints cash, infra absorbs it… then prints even more. Not a reversal. A phase shift.
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Keşfet

@Object_Zero_ @gustaf @avocadoking88 @GregMartinLive @signulll @MJIskander @elonmusk @BarackObama