rocky
40.7K posts
best trade of the last decade was long fiat debasement. bitcoin was the best expression best trade of the next decade is?
I just bought $2M of a brand new stock after it crashed 7% today. $PENG is now a 20% position in my Asymmetrical Bets fund (+89% YTD) on @joinautopilot followed by $10M. Credit goes to legend @pennycheck for being the first to call this stock. With Penguin Solutions I now own the winner agnostic integrator behind the memory, CPU, and photonics supercycle at under 17x forward earnings. 1) The memory business alone is worth the market cap. Penguin's Integrated Memory biz = they take raw DRAM chips from manufacturers like SK Hynix and package them into custom memory modules built to spec for AI servers, telco gear, and enterprise systems. It's now 50% of revenue, did $172M last quarter, growing 63% YoY, ~$800M annualized. Apply a 3x price to sales on just this unit and you're already above what $PENG is worth today. 2) Play the CPU supercycle. CPU:GPU ratios going from 1:8 to 1:1 as agentic AI takes over. $PENG is the lead integration partner for AMD EPYC and Intel Xeon. Every new socket = more memory cooling and integration revenue baked in. 3) The AI Factory platform is real. OriginAI is their turnkey deployment from 256 to 16,000+ GPU clusters for sovereign and enterprise customers. 85,000 GPUs already deployed. UBS says non hyperscaler buyers (sovereigns, neoclouds, enterprises) capture 48% of AI infra spend in 2026. Hyperscalers build in house. But these other players ALL need Penguin. 4) Photonics is the unpriced asymmetric bet. $PENG called photonics early and was an early investor in Celestial AI. $MRVL acquired it $3.25B in December. Now Penguin is building the Photonic Memory Appliance, making it the only public play on this kind of wild photonics tech. The PMA is basically a box that uses light to link memory across a bunch of servers so the entire AI cluster can share one giant pool of memory like it's one big computer. Marvell guides Celestial to $1B revenue in 2029. If Penguin captures even low double digits of that stream, that could be 9 figs of unpriced networking revenue on $PENG's highest margin, most defensible IP. 5) People/partners are cracked. Chairman of $PENG is ALSO Chairman of $LITE. AMD CTO Mark Papermaster sits on the board SK Telecom dropped $200M as a strategic investor New CPO Ian Colle ran AI infra at AWS 6) Risks are real but manageable Penguin's AI cluster business is lumpy and one big customer slipping a quarter can tank earnings (already happened in Q2, down 42% YoY). The memory shortage is a headwind as high DRAM prices are slowing customer orders and hitting Penguin's gross margins. The photonics upside is a 2027+ story, so if it slips, the stock can sit dead money for a while. Because the multiple is still so cheap, I overall see limited downside compared to the upside if their photonics option can be quantified with $MRVL where I could see Penguin trading closer to a 30x+ forward PE. Surf's up. Full thesis linked on Substack below.
NEW DATA: The U.S. would face serious challenges in a protracted war with China due to a lack of long-range munitions, air defense systems, & unmanned systems, along with vulnerable bases & critical infrastructure in the Indo-Pacific, finds @CSISDefense. csis.org/analysis/unite…
