chart watcher
93 posts

chart watcher
@chart_god_v1
I post prediction markets and Asian Baddies
My room Katılım Haziran 2025
11 Takip Edilen101 Takipçiler
chart watcher retweetledi

We are proud to have graduated from the EASY Residency S3 cohort alongside so many strong founders and teams.
The residency leveled us up and we're just getting started.
Huge thank you to @YZiLabs and @easyresidency for the opportunity and support.
YZi Labs@yzilabs
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@Polysights @Polymarket should should i just bet no on everything to make more money?
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Does ANYTHING ever happen?
We analyzed every "Nothing Ever Happens" market on
@Polymarket and the sub-events they're built from.
Here's what we found:
→ At the specific level, the meme is literally true
102 sub-events resolved. 76 of them, 75% didn't fire. Three out of four specific "doomer" predictions quietly resolved NO.
→ The composite knows this. The sub-events don't.
Mean error at resolution: 4.6 pts (composite) vs 17.2 pts (individual sub-events). The basket was ~4x closer to the truth than the specific markets it was made of.
→ Head-to-head, the composite wins 37 to 10
When the "something happens" market and an individual sub-event disagreed on price, the composite was right almost 4x more often.
→ The triggers are correlated
NEH composites resolved SOMETHING only 46% of the time. With independent ~25% fire rates across 5 triggers, math says they should fire ~76% of the time.
Nothing ever happens. And when it does, it happens to everything at once.

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@Rainmaker1973 why does this grave have more motion than me fuck my chud life
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@ryangerritsen trudeau is a performative soy boy that brainwashed canadians
really had the whole country thinking he was against racism

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We analyzed 20,000+ Polymarket markets from the last 6 months and ranked the most volatile.
This is what we found:
→ Crypto token launches dominate with 4 out of 10
It seems to be pure information asymmetry, very few people can actually predict this
→ There seems to be deadline anxiety
"will X happen by [date]?" tend to be more chaotic than "who will win?"
→ Chaos flips the prior
These markets resolved YES 50% of the time vs 27% across all $1M+ markets. When the market thrashes, the surprise is usually a YES.
→ Mid cap is the chaos zone
Most chaos lives in $1-7M markets. The $10M+ markets are calmer as large amounts of money smooths price action.

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@Polysights is this his first time at war why is he so bad at this?
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IT'S OFFICIAL.
I am the new CGO of @polysights
And as the Chief Goon Officer is it imperative for the company's success that I goon to our insider finder tool 5x a day

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Sonic builders, it’s BUIDL time 💥
Sonic@SonicLabs
🪂 Sonic Airdrop Update We've updated the $S airdrop asset multipliers and whitelists, effective from the start of season 2. Top earners are now $S and ecosystem tokens. Full details below. 🔗 #whitelisted-assets" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">docs.soniclabs.com/funding/sonic-…
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