Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 )
325.2K posts
@chigrl
Senior Economist at NinjaTrader Live/NinjaTrader Group LLC. CEO/Founder Hilltower Resource Advisors LLC. @HilltowerRA Substack: Renegade Resources
I’m still sitting here thinking this whole setup isn’t nearly enough to flip everything. Look, oil mkt was heavily tilted short, and the street was already pricing in a technical dead-cat bounce, so this violent short squeeze isn't exactly catching anyone off guard. I’m not betting the house that Trump drops a TACO print automatically. The ball is 100% in Tehran's court. With the US officially shouting out a maritime blockade refresh, Iran has to punch back. Sitting on their hands right now means lighting whatever leverage they have left on fire. If Iranian barrels get choked out, the textbook playbook for them is to hold their leverage hostage by capping everyone else’s inbound and outbound lanes. Where their pain threshold actually sits, though, is anyone's guess. But let’s be real—flimsy headline blockades, symbolic drone strikes on US outposts, and minor tanker skirmishes aren't going to move the needle anymore. If Iran actually goes hot and starts hammering GCC infrastructure or executes a bulletproof, total lockdown of the Red Sea—bc let’s face it, that hasn't cleanly hit the tape yet—that’s your structural runway to macro escalation. If they push it that far, even Trump will eventually have to map out an exit strategy. You guys can talk about the math all day, but trust me, I run the same models. The only reason my PnL took a hit in that final month was because that exact math completely flatlined on me. Strictly speaking, if a hull catches fire and Hormuz goes dark again, the tape should be screaming $150 oil. But the street has massive scar tissue from watching the market effortlessly fade geo-headlines in the past, so the money is naturally going to gravitate right back toward that short-bias default. We need a smoking gun here—an absolute tail risk print that no desk can handwave away. Either Iran puts real kinetic heat on regional infrastructure to cause undeniable physical damage, or the US-Tehran back-and-forth morphs into total, unhedged warfare. Without that kind of tail-event acceleration, keeping crude pegged at these highs is going to be a massive uphill battle. Bottom line, looking at the tape over the last few months, the current catalyst mix just isn't getting the job done. Though to be fair, we’ve got two massive wildcards sitting out there—one bull, one bear. The bull case: China. Beijing knows the West’s strategic buffer is completely running on fumes. They could easily weaponize the tape, push crude into a massive squeeze, and put the squeeze on the US administration. Granted they left that trade on the table last time, but you can’t cross it out. The bear case: Trump's TACO. The exact monster everyone in this room is staring at. Let’s be real—Trump could jump on social media right now, print a single line saying 'Not everyone has to pay,' and you'd instantly see $4-5 washed out of crude. When the dust settles on this squeeze, macro funds are going to need a bulletproof thesis to stay long the front of the curve. Everyone on the street still has PTSD from the consecutive VaR shocks and the TACO traps we just went through. Holding paper longs here takes a serious amount of delta-courage. We need a total smoking gun here. It might sound completely unhinged, and ppl can point fingers at me all they want, but let's be real—haven’t we all taken enough pain over the last few months to learn our lesson? Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three times, and you're officially a co-conspirator. Let's watch the tape play out. #oott #iran
Hello from Germany, where the Rhine’s Kaub chokepoint is at its lowest water level for this time of year in decades. Barges can carry less than 20% of normal loads, diesel freight rates from Rotterdam to Karlsruhe jumped 56% – and another heat wave is turning drought into a supply-chain shock. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
keep and eye on this, this is the first time since the Houthis directly targeted Saudi Arabia since 2023 > Houthis target Saudi airports as ballistic missiles intercepted Saudi Arabia says air defenses intercepted missiles launched at the country’s south; reports say Houthi attacks targeted Abha airport and two air bases in retaliation for strikes on Sanaa airport (YNet)
Russia’s Oil Output Falls to Lowest in at Least 2 1/2 Years Russia’s crude output declined to the lowest in at least two and a half years in June as Ukraine attacked the nation’s oil infrastructure on an almost daily basis. Producers pumped an average of 8.928 million barrels a day of crude, according to a monthly report by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. The June figure is 834,000 barrels a day below Russia’s required level for the month under an agreement with OPEC and its allies, and 61,000 barrels a day below May’s level, which was revised slightly lower, OPEC data based on secondary sources showed. (Bloomberg)
keep and eye on this, this is the first time since the Houthis directly targeted Saudi Arabia since 2023 > Houthis target Saudi airports as ballistic missiles intercepted Saudi Arabia says air defenses intercepted missiles launched at the country’s south; reports say Houthi attacks targeted Abha airport and two air bases in retaliation for strikes on Sanaa airport (YNet)
