chris rhoades

10 posts

chris rhoades

chris rhoades

@chrisrhoad28458

Katılım Haziran 2025
9 Takip Edilen2 Takipçiler
Michael Knight
Michael Knight@MKnight_1984·
If you’re looking for clues about KSM’s potential JV partner, Seabridge may have just dropped a pretty big hint: KSM’s updated resource price deck now matches the published resource assumptions of one obvious potential partner. 👀 $SA $SEA.TO
Seabridge Gold Investor (NYSE:SA | TSX:SEA.TO)@GoldSeabridge

The metal prices used to restate KSM resources bring us into alignment with our prospective partner. All part of the process of moving towards a deal. $SA

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Peter R Hann CFA, Goldbug Weirdo/Silver Freak
Hi Ho Hycroft! Seeing things like this remind that a lot of the random comments in my replies, may indeed be people and not bots, but they don't have any real insight into the what they are replying to. If you are some supposed "mining expert" and you are active on X, then why is your follower count so low?
Peter R Hann CFA, Goldbug Weirdo/Silver Freak tweet media
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chris rhoades
chris rhoades@chrisrhoad28458·
@altcap @GivePowerFdn @HayesBarnard @LincGerstner Brad, this is awesome. I have always been a fan of yours, and this is next level. What a life changing experience for those families in Kenya. And an equally amazing experience for your kids. Watching the videos on the Givepower site and am gonna take my family. TY!
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Brad Gerstner
Brad Gerstner@altcap·
As I reflect on an amazing 2025 filled w tectonic changes - l’m reminded that small acts of kindness still matter & connect us all as humans. Our family’s annual @GivePowerFdn trek. Check it out - amazing family experience, see the world & make a difference. 🤍🤍@HayesBarnard
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chris rhoades
chris rhoades@chrisrhoad28458·
@khickey19 absolutely incredible. my largest position. can't understand why the market is not taking notice of this stock and bidding it up.
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Kevin Hickey
Kevin Hickey@khickey19·
I asked Grok to estimate the fair value of $SA Seabridge stock after a joint venture announcement with a major mining company such as $NEM, $AEM, $RIO etc, with gold at $4,200 an ounce and copper at $5 / lb. Grok came up with $105 - $170. This is a summary the Grok response. "Updated total project NPV₅% (100% basis): US$30–36 billion (Most probable: US$32–34 billion — extremely robust economics with IRR likely >30–35%, all-in costs still sub-$700/oz net of credits, payback <3 years). Post-JV Announcement Fair Value JV terms would likely remain in the same range (major partner earns 50–70%, Seabridge retains 30–50% + carried interest + upfront/staged cash potentially US$500 million–$1.5 billion+, depending on final negotiation and the much stronger project economics). Attributable NPV₅% to Seabridge: US$12–18 billion (Most probable in a solid deal: US$14–17 billion, reflecting 40–50% retention + cash/royalty adjustments). With the project fully de-risked (funding, execution, permitting largely transferred to a major), $SA would trade at 0.85–1.0× NAV (higher end of range justified by the exceptional margins and IRR at US$4,200 gold — comparable to the best undeveloped gold assets in history during bull markets). Realistic post-announcement market cap: US$11–18 billion. Fair value per share: US$105–170 (Most probable range in a good but not "home run" deal: US$130–155). The announcement-day gap would be explosive (300–500%+ possible, depending on partner quality and exact terms), with the stock likely opening in the $90–130 range and grinding higher over weeks/months toward $140–160+ as analysts update models and momentum builds. A top-tier partner (e.g., Newmont/Rio/BHP) with generous terms (50% retained + full carry + >$1B cash) could push it north of $180–200 quickly. Bottom line: At US$4,200 gold, a JV turns KSM into one of the most valuable undeveloped assets on the planet. The catalyst would realistically deliver a 4.5–6× return from current levels (~US$125–170) within 12–18 months post-announcement, with upside to 7–8× in an optimal outcome." I am long $SA and I have a over 200 option contracts with a variety of strikes and expirations. The CEO of Seabridge has stated a number of times recently he expects to announce a JV by the end of 2025. I think the announcement could slip into Q1 of 2026 so I have a mix of Jan 26, May 26 and Jan 27 options. If the stock pops to $100 the $35 option goes to $65. The Jan $35 option is $1.1 ( = 59x return ) , the May $35 option is $3.4 ( 19x return ). Not financial advice DYOR
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chris rhoades
chris rhoades@chrisrhoad28458·
@Omne_Ai i agree. my largest position. what is your target price if they are successful in announcing a jv partner for KSM?
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Omne Ai
Omne Ai@Omne_Ai·
Stock pick you haven't heard of: Seabridge Gold $SA ⛏️ $SA is up ~143% YTD (from $12.04 to $28.53) with room to run. Why? They own KSM, one of the world's largest undeveloped gold/copper projects ($47M oz Gold/$7.3B lbs Copper reserves). It's an unappreciated bet on surging metal prices. Catalyst: Major JV partner announcement expected. We are a STRONG BUY at this time. #Gold #Copper #mininglaunch
Omne Ai tweet media
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chris rhoades
chris rhoades@chrisrhoad28458·
@MKnight_1984 @eaton3450 under your scenario, SA is more like a 20x. the NAV is $30bil today, with 5% increases, that NAV goes up at 20% annually with the operating leverage. my largest position. JV announcement any day, or it slips to January. CEO gets this done. my largest position ever!
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Michael Knight
Michael Knight@MKnight_1984·
@eaton3450 If you believe: 1.) The JV gets done on favorable terms (keep ~40%, little/no capital req’d) 2.) The partner builds the project (post bankable feas) 3.) Reasonable (5%+) annual increases in metals prices 4.) No major delays/snafus Then $SA has 10x potential within 5-7 yrs
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Jay Eaton
Jay Eaton@eaton3450·
New interview with Rudi on Prinsights with Nomi Prins.(subscription) Talked about JV announcement as a given. My take is soon. Stock has room to 5x for fair value with peers according to RBC. No time frame given. Rudi is talking about Seabridge as a legacy holding, as do I. $SA
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chris rhoades
chris rhoades@chrisrhoad28458·
@pdicarlotrader truly inspiring. i wish you had gained your trading skills earlier in life to help your mother and to see how proud of you she would have been. i love that you keep the note in your wallet. keeps you grounded. congrats on all of your success. Chris
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Peter DiCarlo
Peter DiCarlo@pdicarlotrader·
On the morning of February 3, 2017, I found my mom dead in her apartment. She had undergone a routine surgery for her rotator cuff, an injury from work, and likely passed away in her sleep that night. By the time I found her, it was too late. Throughout our childhood, my mother worked tirelessly, often 60-70 hours a week, earning no more than $9 an hour, striving to provide for us. Despite her efforts, she struggled financially, barely managing her expenses for her modest one-bedroom apartment. After her passing, I found a letter she had written to her retirement fund, pleading for an early withdrawal to afford her surgery. (This is the letter attached, and I still carry it in my pocket to this day) Before this, my life was a mess. I had multiple prison stints, including a nine-month sentence for a marijuana-related charge, and had become a convicted felon. Though I had started to turn my life around, working at a law firm, I felt stagnant. Following these difficult times and the loss of my mother, I received a notification from a life insurance policy she had lapsed payments on. Luckily, due to the timing of her death, I was entitled to $25,000. This amount was significant for me. I had seen my mother labor her entire life with little to show for it. I realized that neither laziness nor mere hard work was the answer. In prison, I had educated myself about the stock market and the concept of "leverage," understanding that leverage, not just capital, generates wealth. I devoted myself to learning about investment, the stock market, psychology, and the principles of money. With the insurance money, I invested in a duplex to live in and rent out, and used $5,000 to start trading options. I grew that portfolio from $5k to $50k before blowing it up. The only thing that kept me going was knowing that there were people out there doing this for a living, and they just knew something I didn't. My journey taught me the importance of self-awareness and emotional understanding in trading. I perceived each loss as a failure to honor my mother's legacy, but I continued trading for four more years. Now, 9 years into the game I can fully take care of my family. I have the luxury of building a community I truly love, and most of all help people like myself back then. ❤️ This story illustrates the power of perseverance and the profound impact of personal loss on one's life path. My mother's annual income never exceeded $30,000, yet I've managed to earn that in a single day. Although it sometimes feels undeserved, I realize how her passing and the subsequent challenges shaped me into a successful trader. Life unfolds with purpose, and I am committed to sharing my knowledge and assisting others in achieving their dreams.
Peter DiCarlo tweet media
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