Circumsedere

$IREN UPSIZED CONVERTIBLE NOTES🚨 $IREN priced the convert. Upsized to $2.6B from $2B. That tells you everything about demand. 🔹1.00% coupon 🔹32.5% conversion premium ($73.07) 🔹Capped calls at $110.30 (100% premium) Real dilution does not kick in until the stock doubles from here. For context, the $IREN convert track record: Oct 2025: $875M, 0% coupon, cap $120.18 Dec 2025: $2B, 0.25/1.00% coupons, cap $82.24 May 2026: $2.6B, 1.00% coupon, cap $110.30 Three converts in 7 months. Roughly $5.5B raised. All capped calls. All near-zero coupons. All retiring older more dilutive notes in the process. This is a team that knows exactly what it is doing. AI infra build funded structurally, not dilutively. 🔷🔷🔷

$NRGV beast mode engaged Just droppin' alpha left and right. "this is insane!" 😂 Forgettaboutit!!! 🇨🇭

$CBRS (Cerebras) IPOs on Thursday at ~$26B, raising up to $3.5B. Largest IPO of the year so far (in the US). $CBRS builds wafer-scale AI chips, an alternative architecture to GPU based approaches. Customer base includes OpenAI ($20B deal), $AMZN, and $META. Now this is pretty interesting... $25B in contracted backlog vs ~$26B IPO. That's nearly a 1:1 backlog to market cap... much better than $CRWV's ratio at the time. Or $10B of demand for a $3.5B raise... Validates the entire AI chip and inference market once again. More money flowing into competitive architectures means more confidence in the thesis. New capital flowing into the same supercycle... and if you've been following my posts, you can guess what benefits directly from the $CBRS IPO.

The point isn't how many $IREN shares BlackRock bought last quarter. Still, it's impressive they have $250,000,000 invested in IREN. The real question is how many shares they bought this quarter, crazy dark pool volume.

$KRMN Q1 2026 earnings: Acquisitions Supercharge Revenue, But Margin Reality Sets In Karman Space & Defense delivered a massive top-line quarter, with revenue up 51% YoY to $151.2 million. However, the headline number masks a structural shift: more than half of that dollar growth came from the newly acquired Maritime Defense Systems segment ($26.4M), which consists of the Seemann and MSC acquisitions. Stripping that out, legacy segments grew a stable ~25% organically. The cost of this M&A-driven scale is a drag on profitability. Adjusted EBITDA margins compressed to 29.6%, falling below the 30%+ threshold established over the last year, driven by the lower-margin cost-plus contracts inherited from Seemann. Despite the margin dilution, a surging $1.0 billion backlog and raised full-year guidance paint an Accelerating trajectory for overall earnings power. Full article with charts - link in bio 🐂 𝐁𝐮𝐥𝐥 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐞 • 𝐁𝐚𝐜𝐤𝐥𝐨𝐠 𝐕𝐢𝐬𝐢𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐢𝐬 𝐄𝐱𝐜𝐞𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 — Funded backlog vaulted to $1.0 billion (+61% YoY). Management noted that current Q1 revenue plus the portion of the backlog slated for FY26 conversion already covers 90% of the newly raised full-year revenue guidance. • 𝐋𝐞𝐠𝐚𝐜𝐲 𝐒𝐞𝐠𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬 𝐑𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐢𝐧 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐠 — Organic growth is holding its ground. Space and Launch accelerated to 29.5% YoY growth, while Tactical Missiles posted 25.0% YoY growth, proving the core business is successfully executing on prime contractor demand. 🐻 𝐁𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐞 • 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐟𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐒𝐪𝐮𝐞𝐞𝐳𝐞𝐝 𝐛𝐲 𝐌&𝐀 𝐌𝐢𝐱 — The addition of Maritime Defense brought heavy cost-plus contract exposure. Adjusted EBITDA margins reversed direction, dropping sequentially from 31.2% in 25Q4 to 29.6% in 26Q1. • 𝐌𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐃𝐞𝐛𝐭 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐄𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐬𝐞 — Following the January acquisitions, long-term notes payable spiked from $495M to $752M. Interest expense increased to $12.6M for the quarter, consuming nearly 60% of the $21.4M in operating income. ⚖️ 𝐕𝐞𝐫𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐭: 🟢 Bullish. While the slight margin compression is a known side effect of the recent acquisitions, the sheer volume of high-visibility defense demand—evidenced by the $1.0B backlog—makes the raised 2026 guidance highly achievable. 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐬 🟢🟢 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞 𝐃𝐞𝐟𝐞𝐧𝐬𝐞 𝐈𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐥𝐲 𝐀𝐧𝐜𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐬 𝐓𝐨𝐩-𝐋𝐢𝐧𝐞 [NEW] The Seemann Composites and MSC acquisitions closed in January 2026, instantly birthing a fourth reporting segment: Maritime Defense Systems. It contributed $26.4 million in its inaugural quarter, representing over 17% of total company revenue. This moves Karman beyond aerospace and directly into the lucrative naval supply chain supporting long-term submarine and LCAC programs. 🟢 𝐆𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐃𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐅𝐮𝐞𝐥𝐬 𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐮𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐁𝐚𝐜𝐤𝐥𝐨𝐠 Accelerating demand for critical defense and access-to-space technologies has pushed Karman's backlog to a record $1.0 billion, a 61% YoY increase. This provides extreme multi-year visibility and de-risks the integration phases of the company's aggressive M&A playbook. 🔴 𝐇𝐲𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐨𝐧𝐢𝐜𝐬 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡 𝐢𝐬 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐥𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 A notable red flag within the legacy segments: Hypersonics & Strategic Missile Defense growth is decelerating sharply. The segment grew just 18.7% YoY in 26Q1, a stark drop from the 42.0% YoY growth rate celebrated in the 25Q4 earnings cycle. Given the high priority of the macro 'Golden Dome' and DoD hypersonic programs, this deceleration warrants close monitoring. ⚪ 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐢𝐧 𝐃𝐢𝐥𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐂𝐨𝐬𝐭-𝐏𝐥𝐮𝐬 𝐀𝐜𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐫𝐞𝐝 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐬 Management previously warned in the 25Q4 call that the Seemann/MSC acquisition would drag down overall margins due to its high concentration of cost-plus contracts. This has materialized immediately, with Adjusted EBITDA margins dropping to 29.6%. The company is trading its historical 31%+ profitability profile for raw scale and platform diversification. 🟢 𝐒𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐞 & 𝐋𝐚𝐮𝐧𝐜𝐡 𝐑𝐞𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐮𝐞𝐬 Space and Launch revenue accelerated, up 29.5% YoY to $43.9M. This segment had previously faced headwinds from the wind-down of the Space Launch System (SLS) program, but growth is now being decisively driven by timing of orders for both legacy and emerging commercial launch providers. 𝐎𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐊𝐏𝐈𝐬 𝐍𝐞𝐭 𝐎𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐈𝐧𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞: $21.5 million Accelerating massively, up 115% YoY compared to $10.0M in 25Q1. This highlights the tremendous operating leverage in the business model—while gross margins and EBITDA face mix-shift headwinds, the absolute dollars cascading to operating income have more than doubled. 𝐋𝐨𝐧𝐠-𝐓𝐞𝐫𝐦 𝐃𝐞𝐛𝐭: $752.2 million A massive step-up from $495.3M at the end of FY25. This increase directly correlates to the financing of the Seemann and MSC acquisitions. The company successfully upsized its revolving credit facility from $50M to $150M in March 2026 to ensure adequate liquidity for operations as leverage increases. 𝐆𝐮𝐢𝐝𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐅𝐘𝟐𝟔 𝐓𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐑𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐮𝐞: $720 - $735 million Accelerating. Management raised the full-year outlook from the prior $715-$730M range. The $727.5M midpoint implies a massive 54% YoY growth rate over FY25's $471.5M, driven heavily by inorganic acquisition contributions. 𝐅𝐘𝟐𝟔 𝐀𝐝𝐣𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐄𝐁𝐈𝐓𝐃𝐀: $208.5 - $219.5 million Accelerating in absolute dollars, but Stable/Decelerating on margin. Raised from the prior $207-$218M range. The $214M midpoint implies 47% YoY growth. However, this yields an implied annual margin of ~29.4%, which is structurally lower than the 30.8% margin achieved in FY25. 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐐𝐮𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐢𝐧 𝐓𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐏𝐚𝐭𝐡 Given the explicit drag on Adjusted EBITDA margins from Seemann's cost-plus contracts, what is the specific timeline and strategy to convert these legacy maritime programs to higher-margin firm-fixed-price contracts? 𝐇𝐲𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐨𝐧𝐢𝐜𝐬 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐥𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 Hypersonics growth slowed to 18.7% this quarter after exiting last year at 42%. Is this simply a timing issue related to classified program funding, or are we seeing a structural deceleration in that specific end-market? 𝐃𝐞-𝐥𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐓𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐞 With long-term debt now exceeding $750 million and interest expense consuming over $12 million a quarter, are you still tracking toward the 3.0x net leverage ratio target by the end of 2026?

$LITE Another 8 week pivot. Probably nothing

$GLW Tightening up on the right side of this base. Investor day on Wednesday.

I like what $VIAV is doing I hope it can sit and range for about a week, then middle to end of next week it can be a candidate

Initial reaction is -8%ish $RMBS That's on top of the -11%ish during the day. Will see after the call. Could be up 20% tomm morning or down the same. Casino bets. With these run ups going into earnings season, companies in the semi space or adjacent (even memory storage whatever) going to need home runs

There's no question the AI boom resembles the dotcom bubble but at what point in the cycle is $SPY?

$TRT This didn’t make it on Twitter, but I spent the weekend discussing this play w/ friends as a comparison to peer $AEHR $AEHR: +1600% past 1-year, $16.6M 2021 rev, negative EBITDA, $660M mkt cap vs. $TRT: +25% past 1-year, $33M in 2021 rev, POSITIVE EBITDA, $19M mkt cap

$LPTH