Lefert Clement 🇫🇷

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@UnintendedCons5 @staunovo @CRUDEOIL231 The forward demand assumptions occur at current forward curve or it assumes that the curve rolls up to spot?

@CRUDEOIL231 Rough table based on days cover minimums to illustrate whats about to hit the market in May and June. Demand needs to get slaughtered going forward tank bottoms hit. 1bn barrels of storage drawn end June + 12.5mmbpd of demand loss *Restart not included

@CRUDEOIL231 @citrini what can they do?

@citrini If things move toward tolerating Iran's control over the SoH, just watch how the GCC countries react. What they reject isn't peace—it's Iranian control of the SoH. Just look at the remarks from the ADNOC CEO.

“The GCC will never accept this”… Gulf partners, even the most anti-Iran, will come to the table. The biggest risk to the ceasefire is not the GCC refusing to play ball, it’s Israel continuing to bomb Lebanon.

@CRUDEOIL231 Decent reset with a couple of words

The market was open, so the war was "OVER." Now that the market is closed, we’re back at war 🥹Same playbook!

and vs price...

Polymarket probabilities of US strikes on Iran before 31st March (white) and 30th June (blue) vs. rolling 3m 25d calls

3- if a good chunk of the 2026 build appears in western storage, you can get much lower prices at low managed money positioning as phys sell futures to hedge tanks. Ps: CTAs exist because they do make money at times...

2- it works well in slightly balanced markets (2023-2024), but already you can see a decoupling in 2025 (+1.2mbd oversupply) and that oversupply was mostly out of western commercial storage

1- Too many people use the recent correlation in between managed money (CTAs) and oil prices.. but they forget that in 2014, managed money length bottoms at $92/bbl brent and we still went to $28/bbl... that is partly because of inventory hedging during large oversupply periods

@UnintendedCons5 Peak in intensity (mbd) but from an outright perspective, according to them, inventories will peak in 2Q27.

In Goldman's latest note they talk about storage (including SPR) building - we are currently at the peak and Brent is 50c backward. The red mark on this chart is actual build right now . Someone is wrong #oott

@Big_Orrin I don’t think it’s rocket science but could be wrong :) I guess we’ll find out.

@Big_Orrin Yes all good points. Production can stop, will depend on how much they have infiltrated the NIOC. I’m sure they have learned from history as well. But sure, production is at risk. I just think IRGC will manage to sell all the OOW which is a significant buffer at first

@Big_Orrin IRGC in control of the NIOC? ir.usembassy.gov/treasury-repor…

@Big_Orrin No one is truly “independent” in China, the independents buy it cause they are out of the dollar system (and out of reach from sanctions which isn’t the case of the state owned) but the oil flows domestically after and can’t be tracked. Payment wise, when there is a will…

@Big_Orrin There is 150mb of Iranian oil on water - 60mb of it being floating storage. Think that covers for quite a bit of time?

Venezuela: My personal opinion is that what the US did is a good thing. “International law” is not there to protect criminal gangs once they took over countries. Venezuela was already invaded by all types of criminal groups. The Venezuelan people have been hostages for 25 years. There is now hope for freedom for them. There is so much upside for that country and its people if its potential is unleashed. The “special military operation” was a clear success. It was fast with very little collateral damage. Maduro out. Now the big question is who will replace him? Trump says the US will run it until a proper democratic transition can happen. This sounds good. But then he does not support Machado (Nobel peace prize winner for her work promoting democracy in Venezuela, and who won the primary of the opposition in 2023 but then barred to run for president), and I doubt he has much appetite to keep many boots on the ground to make the transition successful. I hope he will go all the way, and not stop too early, so that there could be a real change for the better. It would be good for Venezuelan people, Venezuela, and it would weaken the Russian and Iranian regimes further, and China to some extent too, and many criminal groups. There is more upside than downside. How much upside will depend on how it is executed over time.

@UnintendedCons5 If you include rbob, heat and gasoil, we actually went negative last year (-30mb) and we are now 160mb above that.

Very short.

@UnintendedCons5 @BenniKim Given the global oil OI exploded higher in dec, it’s fair to think mkt is mostly positioned via short spreads/short fp vs long calls. A grind higher with Venz tightening bal met by strong prod flow (selling back end and calls) would hurt most.

@UnintendedCons5 @BenniKim Rolling 2m 35dc -15dc vs Brent inverted. The market has decided to play it via the call skew rather than the flat price so far… the skew move is very similar to the move on Russian sanctions expect futures barely moved so far

@UnintendedCons5 @BenniKim Except*

Are @BenniKim and I the only ones long oil futures at the moment? Sure feels that way. Lots of bears at the bottom out there.