Donovan Burton

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Donovan Burton

Donovan Burton

@climateplanning

Climate guy. Trying to support the transformation. Director of https://t.co/sisQf5VA4q. Tweets are mine, not robots.

Brisbane, Queensland Katılım Kasım 2010
3.6K Takip Edilen2.4K Takipçiler
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Donovan Burton
Donovan Burton@climateplanning·
So proud to have launched this ...CliMonitor is a climate change disclosure / risk platform that enables an organisation to visually understand & disclose their climate-related risks. informed.city #TCFD #disclosure #adaptation
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Donovan Burton
Donovan Burton@climateplanning·
@hausfath And on this trajectory it is 2.5+ by 2050. Hard to imagine, and terrifying when we do.
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Zeke Hausfather
Zeke Hausfather@hausfath·
Global temperature over the past two years have been very much on the high end of the range of future warming expected in a current policy-type scenario (SSP2-4.5) in the most recent IPCC report (which, itself, expects some near-term acceleration):
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Donovan Burton retweetledi
Aaron Smith
Aaron Smith@aaronsmith·
The LNP don't like their own words repeated back to them, which is why they're infuriated by this ad. Which is also why you should share it.
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Donovan Burton
Donovan Burton@climateplanning·
@hausfath I think the term “unexpectedly” will soon be overused - at what point would you classify it to be entering a potential step change ?
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Zeke Hausfather
Zeke Hausfather@hausfath·
January 2025 was quite unexpectedly the warmest January on record at 1.75C above preindustrial, beating the prior record set in 2024. This is despite the presence of La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific, with the El Niño event of 2023/2024 long faded.
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Donovan Burton
Donovan Burton@climateplanning·
@hausfath Zeke - why do you select a different baseline - how do they look compared to preindustrial? We need to be using preindustrial for policy / Paris alignment.
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Zeke Hausfather
Zeke Hausfather@hausfath·
I'm pretty skeptical of Sabine's argument here that 2023 and 2024 anomalies somehow prove that "hot models" with high climate sensitivity are more likely. If we look at the latest global temperatures compared to all CMIP6 models, we see they remain far from the upper bound!
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Sabine Hossenfelder@skdh

Over the course of 2024, global temperatures hit record highs, yet again. Climate scientists are beginning to worry that temperatures are increasing faster than their models led them to expect. youtube.com/watch?v=P6EMJl…

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Donovan Burton
Donovan Burton@climateplanning·
@LeonSimons8 Ah ok. Yeah def shows accelerated warming, and indication. I stick to 30-yr to stay aligned to WMO definition of climate. But i get your point.
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Donovan Burton
Donovan Burton@climateplanning·
@hausfath How about pre-industrial, so people can see align to international agreements (ie Paris).
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Zeke Hausfather
Zeke Hausfather@hausfath·
Here is how daily global surface temperatures have changed since the 1940s. Note that global temperatures show a modest seasonal cycle due to a higher proportion of land are in the Northern Hemisphere.
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Donovan Burton
Donovan Burton@climateplanning·
Nothing to see here. Keep exporting the coal and gas Australia. Australia sweats through hottest spring on record as temperatures soar 2.5C above pre-industrial levels.
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Donovan Burton
Donovan Burton@climateplanning·
Plenty to talk about at Baku. Hopefully the talk includes transformational decarbonisation.
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson
Prof. Eliot Jacobson@EliotJacobson·
Someone asked for the global surface temperature graphic normalized by the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline. I've posted this before, but not in a while. Here is what it looks like, through July 23.
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Donovan Burton
Donovan Burton@climateplanning·
@EliotJacobson Thanks! How about a comparison to pre-industrial? All eyes are on pre-industrial for targets, Paris etc and would be good to always have temps against this baseline also...
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson
Prof. Eliot Jacobson@EliotJacobson·
For those not following what's happening in the Tropics this year, I made the graph below to make the record breaking surface temperatures as clear as possible:
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Donovan Burton
Donovan Burton@climateplanning·
@hausfath I think what is important to note is that the range leads to societal discounting of impacts. We are just under 1.5 and the impacts are already challenging insurance & soon to be mortgages. The impacts between 1.5 and 2C are profound - after that anyone’s guess.
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Zeke Hausfather
Zeke Hausfather@hausfath·
It’s not particularly surprising when you ask scientists how hot they think the world will get in 2100 they give you answers more or less in-line with current policy scenarios in the literature (e.g. around 2.7C +/- 1C): theguardian.com/environment/ar…
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Donovan Burton
Donovan Burton@climateplanning·
@hausfath why not a pre-industrial base line? How does that look? Paris always refers pre-industrial, and shifting baselines confuses many.
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Zeke Hausfather
Zeke Hausfather@hausfath·
Now, some of us (including the IPCC) think the average of the new generation of models might be biased a bit high by the inclusion of a high sensitivity subset. But even screening out "hot models" suggests faster warming than we've seen historically:
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Zeke Hausfather
Zeke Hausfather@hausfath·
Despite recent extremes, global temperatures remain well within the range that climate models project. But this tells us little about whether warming has or will accelerate, as climate models project a notably faster rate of warming in the future than we have seen since 1970:
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Donovan Burton
Donovan Burton@climateplanning·
Accidentally found myself in the front of last minute press conference. “I want everyone to show flexibility to act with urgency and to find the common ground.” Sultan Al Jaber
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Keşfet

@hausfath @LeonSimons8 @EliotJacobson @SandyHorne61 @elonmusk @BarackObama @taylorswift13 @cristiano