Clive

"Find 3 hobbies—one that makes you money, one that makes you fit, and one that makes you smarter." — @naval

@alc2022 Hi Antonio, I believe it was Munger who said, “Invert, always invert.” What would need to happen for you to conclude that your thesis on any of your picks no longer holds?

No lies detected.

@alc2022 Talk about buying the bottom! Nice!

Potentially excessive winning loading. Buying more $DUOL.

@cryptonewsbiz @Han_Akamatsu Hull Suite by Insillico

@cliveua @Han_Akamatsu Hi Clive, what’s the name of this ribbon indicator exactly? Thanks!

$DUOL Soon getting interesting indeed. After finding support at the $170 level, and as long as it keeps that, the 1W HMA ribbon is approaching. As soon as it makes its bullish crossover, $DUOL becomes an instant buy.

This piece reminds me of my favorite quote from Viktor Emil Frankl

Apart from this being a brilliant piece. It clearly captures why @UiPath will win long term as they become the automation OS for businesses. $PATH

@wealthmatica Nice! Cc @jakebrowatzke

$PATH just kicked benchmark-ass. OSWorld is an open-source, scalable benchmarking environment designed to evaluate the performance of multimodal AI agents on open-ended. - UiPath Scored #1 (67.1% success rate) Though ChatGPT-5 scored higher only when using additional coding-base action. Everest Group ranked $PATH a technological leader for a reason! Great job Daniel and team. $PATH

@alc2022 @jakebrowatzke

$PATH might just be the next $PLTR

@Han_Akamatsu Han my friend, please could you check $PATH if you get the chance? Earnings today.

$AMC Stock needs to re-claim prior 2024 support here at $2.5 in order for anyone to consider going long again. You see this rejecting this yearly long support and turn it into resistance, you may have to reconsider your longs. If you’re not down that much though and you’re just swing trading. Long holders don’t care about charts honestly. Just a heads up and NFA.

@jakebrowatzke Jake, your faith in Jesus and the way you keep Him at the center of your ‘why’ for investing is the #1 reason I follow you. I’m actively consolidating my portfolio toward your highest convictions. Continue to keep Him at the center, no matter what criticism or persecution comes❤️

The reason I talk about Christianity in my posts is because i want more people to know about Jesus, who died on the cross for my sins, even though I did not and do not deserve it. I don't want people who have an inability to even read the name Jesus to get rich off of my research. I will probably start introducing some politics as well because I don't want people who believe in big government to get rich off of my research either. This will one hundred percent without a doubt lead to a smaller readership, but if it means i'm making those who are my allies richer and those who are not my allies are staying away, that sounds great to me. Remember, I don't sell any courses, and I don't need to make any money off of my readers or viewers. This gives me the freedom to think long term.

Current valuations of my favorite growth stocks: I use EV (enterprise value) to look through earnings (applying my expected mature margin on trailing 12-month revenue). This allows me to look through all of the noise and understand the actual price I would be paying for the business if it was a mature company today instead of a growth company. As growth companies are reinvesting in future revenue rather than managing for profit today. $PATH EV/LTE - 10.0x (assuming a 35% mature net margin) $FOUR EV/LTE - 10.2x (assuming an 18% mature net margin) $ODD EV/LTE - 10.4x (assuming a 25% mature net margin) $HIMS EV/LTE - 13.7x (assuming a 25% mature net margin) $LMND EV/LTE - 20.2x (assuming a 20% mature net margin and running it against trailing 12 month in-force premiums, instead of GAAP revenue, which is currently much lower and would lead to an EV/LTE of 34.4x) I'm guessing the biggest question I'll have from this is why I assume 35% profit margins on $PATH, 10% higher than the next highest. This is due to the fact that $PATH is the only company that sells software. UiPath literally has higher gross margins than $PLTR at 82.20%. Software companies like Microsoft already have a 35% net margin today with ~15% lower gross margins than $PATH. $LMND, in contrast, has a 50%-70% loss ratio on claims. This makes it impossible to ever have 82%+ gross margins (until perhaps someday when I'm investing the float and most profit comes from this). Most insurance companies max out at 5% or 10% net margins. Lemonade will do FAR better thanks to AI automation. $HIMS and $ODD sell physical products, introducing shipping costs, tariff costs, cost of goods, etc. Regarding $FOUR, perhaps we're being too conservative, but we are comparing them to mature peers, and payment processing is a relatively thin margin business as everyone generally hates losing money on a transaction to a payment processor. We're in this situation where I think over the next 5 years, $PATH could be the fastest grower, will return the most value to shareholders on each dollar of incremental revenue growth, and is currently the cheapest stock to buy today looking backwards. It simply does not make sense for me to not be all in $PATH. Lemonade is not even in the top 4 estimated performers any longer, when before it 3x'd this year, it was #1. The reason I'm still holding it is because momentum is strong, I still expect around a 30% CAGR (compound annual growth rate) on stock value. And it is still fundamentally undervalued, just not compared to the other all-stars I like. Also, already, I'm not happy about the millions of dollars of profit that I locked in and have to pay taxes on and selling the rest of my position into $PATH would likely introduce another half a million dollars of taxes. Warning, small rant: I absolutely disdain taxes, and I distain how my money is spent. And I do not respect the government in the slightest. I one hundred percent know , without a doubt , I could help more hurting people with that money than corrupt idiot politicians ever could, and perhaps even in a way that would actually benefit those in need instead of locking people into a cycle of poverty. I grew up as a missionary kid , so i've spent most of my life around the homeless and the hurting. I have firsthand experience with my dad helping someone get a part-time job and begin getting back on their feet... before the quit their job because they lost their government handouts, which was more $ than the starter job paid. The government sucks. Everything they do is inefficient. Because they are so dense, corrupt, and disconnected from reality on the ground, the second-order effects of everything they do are always worse than the problem they're trying to fix. What are the two most expensive and inefficient parts of the economy? Health care and higher education. Why? The government backs both with free money. Anyway, here are my expected 5-year returns on my favorite stocks 👇

@_rchaves_ Please see your DM my friend. 👀😅

Static datasets for agent testing = pre-recorded tool responses and fixed paths. Code-based scripts = executable scenarios with natural language criteria. The difference: datasets test mocked behavior. Scripts test live agent logic with real tool execution and LLM-judge validation of success criteria. Scripts give you: - Real agent execution (not mocks) - Natural language success criteria - Multi-turn adaptive interaction - Binary pass/fail tied to business goals Datasets give you: - Response similarity scores that don't map to success Test behavior, not text similarity.