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Dari mibo ku jalan mau beli kopi achek di ulele, smpe ke ulele tutup sat!!!
Indonesia
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Teman aku ada yg pns, jam 10 udah ngajak main ML
kale@kalistohenituse
unpopular opinion tentang PNS/PPPK :
Indonesia
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DECLAN RICE:
He is not a Regista (controls the tempo from deep) e.g Andre Pirlo and Jorginho.
He is not a Deep-lying play maker (start attack from deep) e.g Xabi Alonso and Sergio Busquets.
He is not a Box to Box (covers both defensive and attacking areas) e.g Steven Gerrard and Yaya Toure.
He is not a Defensive Midfielder (destroyer/Ball winner who protects the defence and break up attacks) e.g Ngolo Kante and Casemiro.
He’s not an Advanced play maker (creative midfielder) e.g Bruno Fernandes and Kevin De Bruyne.
He’s not a Mezzala (an attacking central midfielder who drifts into half spaces to support attack) e.g Paul Pogba and Claudio Marchisio.
He’s not a Carrilero (a midfielder who covers wide spaces and supports both full backs and midfield) e.g Arturo Vidal.
He’s not a Trequartista (Operates between midfield and attack with freedom) e.g Francesco Totti.
He runs the whole field busy doing nothing. Just burning calories.
Hiding Midfielder.
English
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Ini seleksinya gimana sih masa baru kelas 3 SMP udh jadi anggota DPRD,,
SobatMiskinTV@MiskinTV_
Awalnya kirain ini konten parodi 🙏 Beliau adalah Wakil Ketua II DPRD Kaltim Pasti banyak pertanyaan di benakmu.
Indonesia
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Awalnya kirain ini konten parodi 🙏
Beliau adalah Wakil Ketua II DPRD Kaltim
Pasti banyak pertanyaan di benakmu.
Indonesia
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Ini bukan translate ya, hanya mencoba memahami Cara kerja Teorema Bayes
Bayangkan keyakinan kita itu seperti timbangan.
Di satu sisi ada apa yang sudah kita percaya.
Di sisi lain ada bukti baru.
Teorema Bayes adalah cara berpikir yang membantu kita menentukan:
'Seberapa besar kita harus percaya sesuatu, setelah melihat bukti baru'.
Intinya sederhana:
'Keyakinan itu bukan tetap. Keyakinan itu bisa berubah.'
Konsep dasar dalam bahasa sederhana
Ada 2 komponen utama:
1. Keyakinan awal (Prior)
Ini adalah apa yang sudah kita percaya sebelumnya.
Misalnya:
“Merokok tidak berbahaya.”
“Madu hutan pasti lebih sehat.”
“Saya jarang sakit, berarti tubuh saya kuat.”
Ini adalah titik awal.
2. Bukti baru (Evidence)
Ini adalah informasi baru yang kita temukan.
Misalnya:
Ada penelitian yang menunjukkan merokok merusak paru-paru.
Ada jurnal ilmiah tentang manfaat madu.
Ada hasil cek kesehatan terbaru.
Cara kerja Bayes (analogi sederhana) begini
Bayangkan Anda percaya sesuatu 60% benar.
Lalu datang bukti baru yang kuat.
Sekarang keyakinan Anda mungkin berubah menjadi:
70% benar
atau 80% benar
atau malah turun jadi 30%
Artinya:
'Keyakinan kita selalu diperbarui berdasarkan bukti'
Bukan hitam putih. Tapi naik turun seperti angka probabilitas.
Contoh nyata sehari-hari
Contoh 1:
Mendengar suara di malam hari
Keyakinan awal:
“Mungkin itu kucing.” (70%)
Lalu Anda dengar suara manusia bicara.
Keyakinan berubah:
“Mungkin itu orang.” (sekarang 80%)
'Bukti baru → keyakinan berubah'
Contoh 2:
Produk kesehatan
Keyakinan awal:
“Madu hutan bagus untuk kesehatan.”
Lalu Anda baca:
1 penelitian → keyakinan sedikit meningkat
10 penelitian → keyakinan semakin kuat
100 penelitian → keyakinan menjadi sangat kuat
Bukti menambah kekuatan keyakinan.
Inti paling penting dari Teorema Bayes
"Orang rasional bukan orang yang selalu benar.
Orang rasional adalah orang yang bersedia memperbarui keyakinannya ketika ada bukti baru.
Bukan keras kepala".
Rumus sederhana dalam bahasa bayi
Bayes mengatakan:
Keyakinan baru = keyakinan lama + bukti baru
Semakin kuat bukti → semakin kuat keyakinan
Semakin lemah bukti → keyakinan tidak banyak berubah
Kenapa ini penting dalam hidup
Karena banyak orang:
Percaya sesuatu tanpa bukti
Atau menolak bukti karena ego
Bayes mengajarkan:
Orang pintar bukan yang selalu benar.
Orang pintar adalah yang mau mengubah pikirannya ketika bukti berubah.
Math Files@Math_files
Bayes’ theorem is probably the single most important thing any rational person can learn. So many of our debates and disagreements that we shout about are because we don’t understand Bayes’ theorem or how human rationality often works. Bayes’ theorem is named after the 18th-century Thomas Bayes, and essentially it’s a formula that asks: when you are presented with all of the evidence for something, how much should you believe it? Bayes’ theorem teaches us that our beliefs are not fixed; they are probabilities. Our beliefs change as we weigh new evidence against our assumptions, or our priors. In other words, we all carry certain ideas about how the world works, and new evidence can challenge them. For example, somebody might believe that smoking is safe, that stress causes mouth ulcers, or that human activity is unrelated to climate change. These are their priors, their starting points. They can be formed by our culture, our biases, or even incomplete information. Now imagine a new study comes along that challenges one of your priors. A single study might not carry enough weight to overturn your existing beliefs. But as studies accumulate, eventually the scales may tip. At some point, your prior will become less and less plausible. Bayes’ theorem argues that being rational is not about black and white. It’s not even about true or false. It’s about what is most reasonable based on the best available evidence. But for this to work, we need to be presented with as much high-quality data as possible. Without evidence—without belief-forming data—we are left only with our priors and biases. And those aren’t all that rational.
Tampan, Indonesia 🇮🇩 Indonesia
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Anjer sheikh zuber 🤣🤣
Muslims Posting Their W's@MuzlimsPostingW
He is al-Khwarizmi, not Algoritmi.
Indonesia
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Ini bener. Kalo jalan ke luar negeri memang harus bikin itinerary detail sampe transport, dll. Cari hotel deket stasiun, cek rute tujuan dr stasiun terdekat costnya berapa, cari yg cost termurah. Ini memudahkan bgt saat traveling.
Tp klo domestik mana pernah dibuat gini 😂
Sistha@sisthaaaaa
Buat temen-temen yang mau/ada rencana ke LN untuk pertama kalinya, aku saranin bikin itin yang rinci & catet detail transportnya supaya pas di sana ga buang waktu buat plonga-plongo cari jalan. Ini contoh itin buatanku pas ke Korsel.
Indonesia
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mas @ainurohman dan @PNS_Ababil
bukannya atlet level beliau ini, harusnya otomatis direkrut jadi cpns kemenpora.
kok ini malah P3K paruh waktu?
kok beda perlakuan?
ada apa?
@erickthohir @AryaSinulingga @MafiaWasit
Indonesia
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Innalilahi wa innailaihi raaji'un, turut berdukacita atas meninggalnya Om Herry hari ini..
اَللَّهُمَّ اغْفِرْ لَهُ وَارْحَمْهُ وَعَافِهِ وَاعْفُ عَنْهُ 🤲🏻
Herriy Cahyadi@herricahyadi
Bayangin, di depan publik, pakai mic, ada orang yg bisa seenaknya mengumbar kekerasan dgn ancaman yg mengerikan “gorok leher”, apalagi orang tersebut di posisi yg punya tanggung jawab publik. Ancaman kekerasan brutal ini ga boleh didiamkan. Harus ada tindakan.
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Another day, another hearing, another appeal but still the same old outcome; a loss for FSV Mainz 05.
Regular defeats on the football pitch clearly aren’t enough for the board of the club so they keep coming back for more losses in the German courts !
I am grateful to the German courts for serving justice and seeing through the baseless and nonsensical claims of the club.
Let me be clear, the statement from the serial losers FSV Mainz 05 following their latest defeat is as deluded as their entire dealings and proceedings against me. I have never had, nor will I ever have, any consensus with any person or organisation which seeks to silence those standing for justice and humanity. My values can never align with any organisation whose values and convictions are to blindly stand with those accused of flagrantly breaching International law and perpetrating genocide.
No one is above the law.
Let this latest victory send a loud and clear to message to the warmongers, their accomplices and the deluded board members of FSV Mainz 05; you cannot, and will not, silence the voices of the Palestinians and their advocates. Viva Palestina !!!
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Translation: I am genuinely attracted to your best friend BUT since he doesn't have your level of money & fame, I settled for you
Killa 🌺@KillaKreww
Erling Haaland didn’t know what to say when his girlfriend admitted that she was in love with his best friend before him 😭💔 x.com/MiniKilla_/sta…
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