CM

what did i miss?

When your buddy commentates on your golf down the stretch

I was watching Netflix’s new series Death by Lightning. It’s set in Chicago, 1880 - and this establishing scene pops up. In the foreground: •an Asian woman, •two Black men, •and a one-legged man - all walking together downtown. It immediately stuck out to me, so I looked up the actual demographics for Chicago in 1880. Here’s what the numbers say: •Chicago’s population: about 503,000 •Black population: 6,500 (≈1.3%) •Chinese population: 172 total (≈0.03%) •Chinese women? About 3% of that - meaning roughly 5 total in the entire city. •Disabled/one-legged men from the Civil War era? Plausible, maybe 0.1–0.2% of the population. So if you ran the math on the odds of seeing all of that - an Asian woman, two Black men, and an amputee - in one random 50-person crowd downtown, it comes out to about 0.00016%, or roughly 1 in 640,000. In other words, Netflix made a scene that’s about as statistically likely as spotting a UFO on your morning commute - but hey, at least the diversity box got checked.

THE RECKONING Michael Burry just bet $1.1 billion that the AI revolution is a lie. Not the technology. The valuation. Eighty percent of his entire portfolio now sits in put options against Nvidia and Palantir … the twin gods of the machine age. This is not hedging. This is conviction. The same conviction that made him $700 million when he shorted the housing bubble while the world called him insane. Burry sees it again. The same fever. The same math that doesn’t work. Nvidia trades at 54 times earnings. Historical baseline: 20. Palantir at 449 times. These are numbers that require perfection forever. Numbers that have never survived reality. In 1999, tech stocks drove 80% of market gains before surrendering 78% in the crash. Today, AI commands 75% of S&P 500 returns. The script hasn’t changed. Only the costume. Global AI spending has exploded to $200 billion annually … up 120% … yet productivity gains crawl below 20%. We are building cathedrals before we’ve proven the god exists. Fifty-four percent of fund managers now call this a bubble. Not pessimists. The people managing the money. The energy math alone is apocalyptic. AI will consume 1% of global electricity by 2027. That’s $100 billion in costs against $200 billion in spending … before a single dollar of proven return. Michael Burry isn’t betting against artificial intelligence. He’s betting against human nature … our willingness to mistake momentum for permanence, narrative for numbers, revolution for immunity from gravity. Every transformative technology reaches this moment: where promise becomes price, where believers stop calculating and start crusading. Electricity was real. The market crash of 1929 was real. Both were true. Palantir’s CEO calls Burry’s position “batshit crazy.” Of course he does. When you’re the priest, the skeptic is always the heretic. But Burry has already been the heretic once. He bought credit default swaps when Wall Street laughed. He walked out with generational wealth when Wall Street walked out with nothing. This is $5 trillion in AI market value balanced on one assumption: that exponential curves never flatten, that competition never arrives, that margins never compress, that reversion to the mean died with the old economy. It didn’t. If Q4 earnings crack, if Nvidia’s 75% margins slip, if adoption stalls or chips supplies fracture … the unwind will reshape markets for a generation. Not because AI fails. Because math finally matters again. Burry may be early. He usually is. But early and wrong are separated only by time. And time has never lost. The machine gods will endure. The question is whether their disciples will survive the fall. Watch the margins. Watch the energy. Watch what happens when faith collides with physics. History doesn’t repeat. But it rhymes. And this verse sounds disturbingly familiar.

It wasn’t easy but we made it! Live from a couch down the Jersey Shore!