Clayton Becker

6.5K posts

Clayton Becker banner
Clayton Becker

Clayton Becker

@cnbecker14

PhD Candidate @Ucla Political Science. Also @l2smentalhealth, he/him

Los Angeles, CA Katılım Temmuz 2012
524 Takip Edilen337 Takipçiler
Sabitlenmiş Tweet
Clayton Becker
Clayton Becker@cnbecker14·
There are 96 servings of 120 calories in my bottle of olive oil. In theory....what would happen to me if I just decided to drink the 11,520 calories in one go? Like, I won't do this, but what would I be dooming myself too if I did?
English
3
0
7
0
Clayton Becker
Clayton Becker@cnbecker14·
This is once again contradicted by the evidence! There is no evidence that building more housing increases housing demand. I am not aware of even a single empirical study that even so much as argues that this is the dominant effect of new housing.
Trammy@tramwayz_

@cnbecker14 @m0grady @lst156 @zippoviolet because the yimby development is driving the increased demand moron what don’t you understand

English
1
1
4
117
Clayton Becker
Clayton Becker@cnbecker14·
@michaeldomps You're just doing the "nuh uh" thing again! Just like the best evidence in smoking debate very directly showed smoking causes lung cancer, the best evidence in the housing debate shows building more housing lowers prices. You are the one denying the scientific evidence here!
English
1
0
2
37
Michael Domps
Michael Domps@michaeldomps·
@cnbecker14 You’re wrong You’re the guy telling me smoking doesn’t cause lung cancer
English
1
0
0
48
Clayton Becker
Clayton Becker@cnbecker14·
This assertion is directly contradicted by the most rigorous empirical evidence! You guys can't keep doing this "nuh uh" stuff man. You gotta actually have some evidence to back it up.
Clayton Becker tweet mediaClayton Becker tweet mediaClayton Becker tweet mediaClayton Becker tweet media
Michael Domps@michaeldomps

@cnbecker14 Filtering doesn’t work for housing affordability It doesn’t I’ll repeat - IT DOES NOT SOLVE THE PROBLEm

English
2
1
14
383
Clayton Becker
Clayton Becker@cnbecker14·
And for the record I am pretty unambiguously correct about this. You have in fact misunderstood what you're arguing here.
Clayton Becker tweet mediaClayton Becker tweet media
English
0
0
3
27
Clayton Becker
Clayton Becker@cnbecker14·
@m0grady Mate I am literally getting a masters in statistics and a PhD at the same time with an emphasis on causal inference. You have misunderstood the difference between a moderator and a mediator here.
English
0
0
0
8
Michael O'Grady (He/Him/His) 🇺🇸🐦
Michael O'Grady (He/Him/His) 🇺🇸🐦@m0grady·
actually no. also, i said partial mediation. in partial mediation, there is a direct effect of x ➡️ y and an indirect effect x ➡️ m ➡️ y. But a causal pathway exists from x to y irregardless of m, and m has no-effect on y without x existing a priori. see below.
Clayton Becker@cnbecker14

No, @chemdawgrei is basically right here. This is wrong on a couple of counts. First, it misunderstands what a mediation pathway is. It says it right in the screenshot. Mediation is the *mechanism through which* a causal effect flows.

English
3
0
3
488
Clayton Becker
Clayton Becker@cnbecker14·
@m0grady Congrats on the publication but like, your understanding of what mediation in this case means is actually wrong here. You can't react this way to people who are your peers in the discipline when they point out an error in your reasoning or just argue there is one.
English
0
0
0
3
Michael O'Grady (He/Him/His) 🇺🇸🐦
Michael O'Grady (He/Him/His) 🇺🇸🐦@m0grady·
@cnbecker14 but thanks for the lesson on mediators. i only published a paper isolating and showing differing direct and indirect effects of covid in marginal groups, complete with mediator effects.
English
1
0
0
32
Clayton Becker
Clayton Becker@cnbecker14·
@m0grady I mean that's the direct meaning of the graphical model! Otherwise cars are a moderator instead of a mediator. The distinction matters in causal terms.
English
1
0
0
48
Michael O'Grady (He/Him/His) 🇺🇸🐦
Michael O'Grady (He/Him/His) 🇺🇸🐦@m0grady·
@cnbecker14 i never said cars were caused by white flight, ok. But i guess ill have to go through the rest of my day with the stinging knowledge that you disagree with. ill get by... somehow.
GIF
English
2
0
0
78
Clayton Becker
Clayton Becker@cnbecker14·
@m0grady Like, we dislike cars partly because of their role in white flight and deindustrialization! So it's a bit weird when you act like we either don't care about these things, or like we're ignoring them somehow.
English
0
0
0
31
Clayton Becker
Clayton Becker@cnbecker14·
@m0grady Yeah man I'm saying this model of the world is wrong. Cars are upstream of white flight, not downstream. White flight was *enabled* by cars, not cars caused by white flight. Moreover, even in your world, cars are still an important part of the story!
English
2
0
4
79
Clayton Becker
Clayton Becker@cnbecker14·
Long story short, I would say that @chemdawgrei has a more accurate read on cars as an enabling factor here. OP messes up what mediation is, and imo gets the underlying causal model implied by Rei's argument wrong.
English
0
0
0
17
Clayton Becker
Clayton Becker@cnbecker14·
Here are two, still relatively simple DAGs that contrast the two causal models here.
Clayton Becker tweet media
English
1
0
0
18
Clayton Becker
Clayton Becker@cnbecker14·
No, @chemdawgrei is basically right here. This is wrong on a couple of counts. First, it misunderstands what a mediation pathway is. It says it right in the screenshot. Mediation is the *mechanism through which* a causal effect flows.
Michael O'Grady (He/Him/His) 🇺🇸🐦@m0grady

Cars likely had a partial mediator effect. While there isnt a good counterfactual, white flight would have certainly occurred anyways given state and fed econ policies that encouraged cannibalizing cities. This is different from an exogenous causal effect, which she argues.

English
1
0
2
593

Keşfet

@michaeldomps @m0grady @chemdawgrei @elonmusk @BarackObama @taylorswift13 @cristiano @BillGates